[Future Useless Eater]

SARS Mortality Rates [reflects treatment] for 'PROBABLE' cases only Based on World Health Organization daily tables                 (Revised:  May 28 pm)
Area	Recoveries to date	Deaths to date	Recent** Death Rate		Active Cases still in Danger	Projected Future Deaths	Projected Cumulative Mortality
China	3036	325	8.7%		1962	170	9.3%
Taiwan	111	81	63.8%		418	267	57.0%
Hong Kong	1295	270	11.1%		165	18	16.6%
elsewhere [30 countries]	449	70	11.9%		61	7	13.3%
**  Recent deaths are based on findings from the Imperial College of London...... that deaths take 12 days longer on average than recoveries on average..... = (12-day recent deaths) / (12-day recent deaths + prior 12-day recoveries)

Observations - Treatment:
• Taiwan only reports 'probable' cases when they are the most obvious, or in CRITICAL condition, which is why their recent death rate is so high.
• Taiwan maintains an additional shamelessly high 'suspected' SARS count exceeding 1150 patients.
• China's numbers are grossly underreported.
  China abruptly STOPPED classifying ANY NEW 'PROBABLE' cases in their 'outland' areas about 2 weeks ago.

Trend - Active Cases Still in Danger [reflects containment] for 'PROBABLE' cases only
Date	China [Bogus]	Taiwan	Hong Kong	elsewhere 30 countries	World-wide all 33 countries
May 13	3061	153	374	89	3677
May 14	3046	170	343	85	3644
May 15	3034	196	309	78	3617
May 16	2969	193	297	79	3538
May 17	2918	221	276	76	3491
May 18 (est.)	2870	254	263	73	3460
May 19	2799	249	250	70	3368
May 20	2700	268	236	69	3273
May 21	2618	295	227	65	3205
May 22	2526	349	217	62	3154
May 23	2438	396	209	59	3102
May 24	2326	386	196	68	2976
May 25 (est.)	2259	386	184	61	2890
May 26	2170	401	183	58	2812
May 27	2057	408	174	59	2698
May 28	1962	418	165	61	2606
May 29	...	459	...	...	...
(includes new daily cases... excludes cases resolved by death or recovery) (some tables are supplemented with government data when WHO data is missing)

Observations - Containment:
• Taiwan's 'probable' count should be FIVE or SIX HUNDRED higher.
• Taiwan is withholding less-serious 'probable' cases and calling them 'suspected'.
• This raises their 'probable' cases' mortality rate, and obscures their real containment.
                              May 29  (459) ACTIVE 'probable' cases
Apr 30   (41)      [a eleven-fold increase in one month]

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• China's 'official' numbers in the charts and their recent 'improvements' are bogus.
• They abruptly stopped ALL REPORTS of NEW 'PROBABLE' cases in most places (besides Beijing) about 2 weeks ago.
  Here are some examples...

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Inner Mongolia (province) - TOTAL 'probable' case count
                               May 28 (285 TOTAL 'probable' cases)
April 28 (114 TOTAL 'probable' cases)
[abrupt change occurred May 10]

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Guandong (province) - TOTAL 'probable' case count
                               May 28 (1512 TOTAL 'probable' cases)
April 28 (1395 TOTAL 'probable' cases)
[abrupt change occurred May 10]   ...vertical scale = 1350 to 1520

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Tianjin (municipality) - TOTAL 'probable' case count
                               May 28 (175 TOTAL 'probable' cases)
April 28 (43 TOTAL 'probable' cases)
[abrupt change occurred May 14]

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Shanxi (province) - TOTAL 'probable' case count
                               May 28 (450 TOTAL 'probable' cases)
April 28 (243 TOTAL 'probable' cases)
[abrupt change about May 14]   ...vertical scale = 200 to 450

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The only way these graphs could flat-line SO ABRUPTLY is China cheating
on their reporting, and to stop reporting any new SARS cases as 'probable'.

[Future Useless Eater]

SARS - Treatment/Containment tables - updated with Wednesday's numbers

plus... China cheating on their SARS reporting - smoking gun evidence here

[Prince Charles]

Good work on those charts, which clearly show a pattern.

[Fred Mertz]

Good work with the visuals. Thanks for the heads up.

[Lessismore]

A friend returning from another country received a leaflet at the airport warning him about traveling to the United States. That and other stories in the foreign media lead him to believe that other countries think that SARS is more prevalent in the United States than what is being admitted.