5/23/03 MMWR Weekly | Update: SARS --- United States, May 21, 2003
Updates numbers of reported cases in United States as of May 21, 2003. A total of 7,956 SARS cases reported to the World Health Organization from 28 countries ;666 deaths (case-fatality proportion: 8.4%). United States reports 355 cases from 40 states, no deaths. Laboratory testing to evaluate infection completed for 122 cases; six cases confirmed. Case reports for United States continue decrease; most cases associated with international travel. New interim surveillance case definition provides criteria to exclude reported cases subsequently found to have other causes of SARS-like symptoms. Clinical judgment should be used to guide management of patients.
5/14/03 MMWR Weekly | Update: SARS --- U.S., 2003
Provides update on reported SARS cases worldwide. As of May 14, 2003, a total of 7,628 cases reported to the World Health Organization from 28 countries; 587 deaths (case-fatality proportion 7.7%). Total cases account for 345 reported from 38 states in United States; 281 (81%)classified as suspect and 64 (19%) classified as probable. No deaths reported in United States. Most cases continue to be associated with international travel to areas affected by SARS. Provides CDC recommendations to prevent and control transmission for inbound travelers from areas with community transmission of SARS. CDC not recommending
quarantine for persons traveling from such areas.
5/9/03 MMWR Weekly | Update: SARS --- Singapore, 2003
Summarizes epidemiologic features of SARS in Singapore; discusses super spreaders and national prevention and control programs. As of April 30, 201 probable cases and 722 suspect cases reported; 25 patients died (case-fatality proportion: 12.5%). Surveillance indicates 76% of infections acquired in a health-care facility. Five patients categorized as super spreaders who were associated with transmissions to > 10 health-care workers, family and social contacts, or visitors to health care facilities. Infection-control measures include designating one hospital for SARS cases, expanding environmental practices to protect health-care workers, stopping general hospital visitation, and providing dedicated ambulance service. Infectious Disease Act amended, requiring more stringent quarantine measures and providing penalties for violations.
Morality rates of 8.4, 7.7 and 12.5% are reported here. I included the worst report, which was from Singapore, but the figures seem to be somewhat sketchy, since 722 suspect cases are not computed in the mortality rate. Therefore I'm more comfortable sticking with the 8.4 and 7.7% figures reported globally on the 14th and the 23rd of May.
15% is obviously an inflated figure. It's about double the actual mortality rate. Around 92% of people who contract SARS will recover. Obviously some age groups and other compromised patients profiles may experience elevated mortality, but I doubt mortality approaches 50% in any but the most compromised groupings, people who would be very weak to begin with.
Many misinformed people have come on these threads with closed minds and nothing to contribute except insults. Sometimes they go away after learning a bit, but rarely do they own up to their mistakes.
As you know, the typical uninformed SARS "debunker" is fond of saying SARS is "just the flu". It's a small point relative to the overall thread, but it looks like you slipped a decimal point.
You said: Ordinary flu has around 1% mortality rate for all patients. The actual number is 0.1%. That makes SARS 150 times more deadly, with much more damage for the survivors.
Source: The CDC estimates 35,000 people die from flu every year, and between 30 million and 50 million people catch it.
Variants of influenza type "A" are the killer. The CDC statistics I read did not break it out separately, but it would certainly be higher than the mortality rate for "all flu" combined.