Per-Capita deficits by state (vanity)

July 26, 2003 | Me

[John Jorsett]

After hearing the whining of my state's governor (Gray Davis of California) that things are bad everywhere, so our enormous state deficit ($38 billion and rising) can't be his fault, I decided to do a little research. Here are my calculations of the per-capita state deficits, in descending order. Surprisingly, California is far from the worst. That honor goes to New York, another Democrat bastion. But what the heck is going on down there in Florida? Jeb, Jeb, Jeb, veto a few things, ok?

The population numbers are the Census projections for 2005, and the budget deficits come from this website.

	FY 2004 Budget Deficit (millions of dollars)	Population (thousands)	Per-capita deficit (dollars)
HI	N/A	8,413.00	?
LA	N/A	4,098.00	?
MS	N/A	5,005.00	?
NM	N/A	8,392.00	?
ND	N/A	8,227.00	?
UT	N/A	21,487.00	?
NY	12,000.00	2,016.00	5,952.38
FL	2,000.00	529.00	3,780.72
NJ	4,000.00	1,281.00	3,122.56
OH	2,000.00	677.00	2,954.21
IL	3,600.00	1,480.00	2,432.43
VA	1,116.00	638.00	1,749.22
TX	7,800.00	5,966.00	1,307.41
AK	896.00	700.00	1,280.00
CA	38,000.00	34,441.00	1,103.34
WI	2,000.00	1,849.00	1,081.67
MD	1,200.00	1,285.00	933.85
SC	700.00	1,012.00	691.70
TN	500.00	810.00	617.28
PA	2,000.00	3,613.00	553.56
CT	1,500.00	3,317.00	452.22
NE	449.00	1,006.00	446.32
DE	300.00	800.00	375.00
MA	2,000.00	5,467.00	365.83
OR	1,267.00	3,491.00	362.93
MO	1,000.00	2,908.00	343.88
MI	1,603.00	6,310.00	254.04
MN	2,442.00	9,763.00	250.13
KS	700.00	2,941.00	238.01
NV	359.00	1,761.00	203.86
CO	900.00	4,468.00	201.43
AZ	967.00	5,230.00	184.89
WA	1,334.00	7,324.00	182.14
DC	100.00	568.00	176.06
ID	200.00	1,342.00	149.03
KY	360.00	2,761.00	130.39
NC	2,000.00	18,250.00	109.59
AL	500.00	4,631.00	107.97
ME	475.00	4,535.00	104.74
AR	223.00	2,750.00	81.09
IN	850.00	12,266.00	69.30
IA	414.00	6,215.00	66.61
GA	900.00	16,279.00	55.29
OK	593.00	11,428.00	51.89
NH	100.00	2,070.00	48.31
WV	250.00	6,258.00	39.95
RI	250.00	12,281.00	20.36
SD	54.00	4,033.00	13.39
VT	28.00	2,411.00	11.61
MT	66.00	5,718.00	11.54
WY	0.00	5,479.00	0.00

[Soren]

Your population figures look wrong. 21M for UT and 2M for NY?

[DallasJ7]

Uh, other than California, I don't think a single one of those state populations is correct.

[GaConfed]

I see Georgia is down near the bottom. This just make's our new RINO governor's love affair with any and all types of new taxes that much more infuriating.

[JamesWilson]

PA has 12 million people and doesn't have a deficit.

[schlitzsmoke]

Okay.. so I wasn't the only one who thought that 2 million people in the entire state of New York didn't look quite right...

[Jack Black]

Hey John,

This is a great chart if you fix it! Nice idea. Don't give up, just correct and repost.

Thanks!

[JLS]

For example, FL's population is larger than NJ's and its aggregate deficit estimate you post is lower than NJ's so that might answer you question about JEB.

[patton]

VA has a population of about 5.5 million, not 638,000, and has announced that it will end the fiscal year with a surplus.

Thank you for playing.....

[Moose4]

Um...South Carolina's small, but we do have more than one million people. :)

This is a neat idea, though. Figuring the deficit per capita should bring up some interesting numbers. The catch, though, is that a lot of these "deficits" had to be closed. SC, among many other states, REQUIRES the budget to be balanced. When tax revenues fall, spending must be cut. The politicans typically wimp out and avoid cutting wasteful but "popular" programs by slashing things across the board. That tends to leave the welfare and poverty pimp programs intact but damage essential services. Down here, our Highway Patrol is hurting, the Corrections Department is on its knees, but pork keeps rolling out to "attract businesses" and the welfare programs keep growing.

}:-)4

[John Jorsett]

Well, nuts, my twelve-step process to generate this table had a bug. Here's the correct one.

	FY 2004 Budget Deficit	Population (thousands)	Per-capita deficit (dollars)
HI	N/A	1,342	?
LA	N/A	4,535	?
MS	N/A	2,908	?
ND	N/A	677	?
NM	N/A	2,016	?
UT	N/A	2,411	?
AK	896.00	700	1,280.00
CA	38,000.00	34,441	1,103.34
NY	12,000.00	18,250	657.53
MN	2,442.00	5,005	487.91
NJ	4,000.00	8,392	476.64
CT	1,500.00	3,317	452.22
DE	300.00	800	375.00
ME	475.00	1,285	369.65
WI	2,000.00	5,479	365.03
TX	7,800.00	21,487	363.01
OR	1,267.00	3,613	350.68
MA	2,000.00	6,310	316.96
IL	3,600.00	12,266	293.49
NE	449.00	1,761	254.97
KS	700.00	2,761	253.53
RI	250.00	1,012	247.04
NC	2,000.00	8,227	243.10
MD	1,200.00	5,467	219.50
WA	1,334.00	6,258	213.17
CO	900.00	4,468	201.43
DC	100.00	529	189.04
AZ	967.00	5230	184.89
OH	2,000.00	11,428	175.01
MO	1,000.00	5,718	174.89
SC	700.00	4,033	173.57
NV	359.00	2,070	173.43
OK	593.00	3,491	169.87
MI	1,603.00	9,763	164.19
PA	2,000.00	12,281	162.85
VA	1,116.00	7,324	152.38
IA	414.00	2,941	140.77
IN	850.00	6,215	136.77
WV	250.00	1,849	135.21
ID	200.00	1,480	135.14
FL	2,000.00	16,279	122.86
AL	500.00	4631	107.97
GA	900.00	8,413	106.98
KY	360.00	4,098	87.85
TN	500.00	5,966	83.81
AR	223.00	2750	81.09
NH	100.00	1,281	78.06
SD	54.00	810	66.67
MT	66.00	1,006	65.61
VT	28.00	638	43.89
WY	0.00	568	0.00

[muawiyah]

Where'd you get those numbers? Virginia does not have a deficit ~ it currently has a surplus of $55,000,000.

[John Jorsett]

Where'd you get those numbers?

Here

[JimVT]

2 million in VT?

Must be our Cong. delegation is drawing flies!

[KneelBeforeZod]

something happened to the data when the hmtl drew up its chart

[muawiyah]

Thanks for the reference. On the other hand, the authors of the study noted: "Virtually all states have balanced budget requirements, so they must take actions to close these deficits."

What that means is that virtually all states will not actually have a deficit~!~

Tell us which states must have a balanced budget, and which states are prohibited from borrowing money for operating purposes.

I think the conclusion will be that almost everybody is in good shape at the state level except California which will have to be sold to the bondholders in Tokyo by December. Maybe the new Governor can arrange that.

[JLS]

Yep, thus this should be called budget shortfalls. I redid his table using 2002 population estimates. Here it is:

State ShortFall/Cap
AL 111.45
AK 1391.77
AZ 177.22
AR 82.29
CA 512.59
CO 199.71
CT 433.46
DE 371.57
FL 119.67
GA 105.14
HI N/A
ID 149.02
IL 285.70
IN 138.00
IA 140.97
KS 257.74
KY 87.96
LA N/A
ME 289.65
MD 219.86
MA 217.80
MI 159.50
MN 486.48
MS N/A
MO 176.29
MT 72.57
NE 194.89
NV 165.17
NH 78.43
NJ 465.64
NM N/A
NY 521.99
NC 240.38
ND N/A
OH 175.11
OK 162.71
OR 269.77
PA 40.53
RI 165.13
SC 170.43
SD 70.95
TN 86.24
TX 183.65
UT N/A
VT 45.41
VA 153.01
WA 164.77
WV 138.74
WI 367.56
WY 0
DC 175.16

[zacharycole]

It would be really interesting to know what the deficits are *per taxpayer,* both on the state and federal levels. That would focus on the real burden of the producers...

[Whispering Smith]

You need to check your population numbers. There are about 650,000 residents in the state of North Dakota.

[faithincowboys]

Your population for Florida looks wrong, was that purposeful to make Brother Jeb look bad?