INTEREST-RATE MOVES WARN THE ECONOMY MAY BE BROKEN

NY POST ^ | 08.05.03 | JOHN CRUDELE

[Beck_isright]

That's different from saying that the economy is - or isn't - improving. It is like saying it can't improve. And the idea that the nation's business cycle is "broken" is a lot more troubling than what you are hearing economists and politicians arguing about these days.

[Beck_isright]

Yes, but look at the average schmuck (not me, I pay cash for my cars and trucks; financing a car is like investing in the local dump: a non-profit enterprise). The average Joe can not qualify for those loans. And since there are more Joes than you or I....

[Delta 21]

My economy is doing just fine.

But a few more tax cuts are in order. Probably happen a few hours after "W" is re-elected.

HA HA ! ! !

[Beck_isright]

LOL, more like you have to contribute to get a further tax cut. However the temporary dividend tax relief is nice.

[CyberAnt]

Oh yeah right, everybody's a liar - especially if they have anything to do with Bush. Yes, I can see that clearly.

How ignorant can any one person be!!

I said a SUMMIT on the economy - and I would preclude that would be A GROUP OF PEOPLE! If I recall correctly, the first meeting the President had included 118 economists - while the mainstream said about 7-8 economists were saying the sky was falling. The liberals have NEVER BEEN RIGHT ABOUT ANYTHING - EVER!!

I would much sooner trust the people Bush chooses than anyone the liberals put up against them.

[Beck_isright]

You're missing my joke and my point. Economists, lawyers and politicians are all just one step above used car salemen. And having dealings with 3 out of those 4, I think I can safely make that statement regardless of which party is in power...

[Moonman62]

The economy has to improve within the next year for Republicans to feel secure of winning, and jobs are the most major key.

The lack of jobs is because the president had very poor economic policies his first two years in office, not because he wasn't protectionist enough. There are signs though that the economy is recovering. The last tax cut was much better than the first, and it doesn't look like politicians will be using the same corporate witch hunt they used to make headlines for the 2002 elections.

[norraad]

... plus, good or bad he has no one else to deal with, he just can't invite "non-credentialed" real people, only over edjumacated slick talkers need apply.

[ScrtAccess]

"....because there is an increase in demand for $4.95 Xmas tree lights."

And theres in increase in demand for $4.95 christmas lights because the cost of basic services (food, electricity, gas, water, sewer, Phone) and property/other taxes keep rising and business are cutting hours/wages/benefits and it's all people can afford, if even that.

[Beck_isright]

"And theres in increase in demand for $4.95 christmas lights because the cost of basic services (food, electricity, gas, water, sewer, Phone) and property/other taxes keep rising and business are cutting hours/wages/benefits and it's all people can afford, if even that."

You just hit the home run. And because the average Joe can not afford the nicer, American made $14.95 lights, more Americans lose their jobs. It makes you wonder why in God's name we bother to worry about these things. The market players will be the death of us all.

[massadvj]

I think we'll get a temporary robust rebound as Bush's economic policy (strictly timed according to his re-election) takes effect. Longer term, watch out. I'd be hoarding gold, and buying hard assets as quickly as possible, because cash will not be king for very long.

Bush can't seem to decide whether he is a Keynesian or a Lafferian, and he isn't taking any chances. He's doing everything he can to flood this economy with cash by cutting taxes and dramatically increasing spending at the same time. I think bond traders understand his game well enough, so long-term yields are taking a hit. Nonetheless, all that cash must have some effect for a short time.

Later, probably after the 2004 election, there will be a big hangover to deal with.

[Beck_isright]

" Bush can't seem to decide whether he is a Keynesian or a Lafferian, and he isn't taking any chances."

I think he's moving more towards Marxism, economically speaking.

[Russell Scott]

When people have no internal or external moral code to control their actions, all kinds of mayhem and mischief will ensue. Curdele is a pretty sharp cookie. Nothing would surprise me, because we lost control of this country economically when we let Clinton drive the car for eight years. If Bush took the wheel when the car was only a few feet from the cliff, then it doesn't matter what he does, the car has already gone over the edge. The good news is God has power over everything, and is not bound by natural laws or economic models. He can turn anything around, when it fulfills his Word, will, and purpose.

[Orangedog]

Hmmmm? didn't Bush just have an economic summit at the White House recently - 2 or 3 weeks ago - and they (the economists who attended) came away from that meeting saying the economy was poised for recovery. That doesn't sound broken to me.

Keep in mind that some "economists" at the Fed are in no small part to blame for the mess we're in. They are like lawyers...they don't eat their own...professional courtesy.

[Beck_isright]

Interesting commentary. Especially after watching the brewhaha about "The Passion". I'm sure next year will be more interesting than this one.

[Alberta's Child]

I found your post quite interesting, because it reflects the tone (and uses the exact same phrase -- "malaise") of so many conversations I had with people back in 1991 and 1992. Those folks weren't very good prognosticators back then, and I have no reason to believe that they would be today, either.

[Orangedog]

Statistics never lie

I see your statement and raise you one!

There are lies, damned lies, and statistics!

[Castlebar]

Boris: "It reminds me of Chernobyl. There, the operators--lulled by lots of 'experience'--thought they understood the system. In reality it was a highly nonlinear one. They kept withdrawing control rods and seeing little or no response. All of a sudden, they withdrew one too many."

Beck_is_right: "Well put. Kudos to your analysis. No one on this board, including myself can predict what is going to happen in the next 5 years. All we know is that we are playing with the big one, the longer and higher we allow the debt to pile up."

Terribly put. The Chernobyl-3 reaction went prompt supercritical when the *ssholes over-rode the interlocks and re-started the main coolant pumps.

[Beck_isright]

Government revenues are in the toilet. That's why we are borrowing money at a record pace. Not just to keep the lights on for now, but to pay the debt service on the operations of the government from 1976-2000!!!!!

[Orangedog]

I heard it takes him 12 hours to open a car door for a lady.

BUMP!...er, I mean...SPLASH!