Hurricane Isabel Is Falling Apart/But Could Re-Gain Strength-Live Thread

NHC | 9-16-03 | my favorite headache

[My Favorite Headache]

Hurricane Isabel is falling apart and fast. Re-Con planes have been flying in the storm since midnight and the entire west quad of the storm has disappeared. The eastern portion of the storm has a wind around 110KTS. There is discussion that re-strengthening will occour within 24 hours though so this still remains a threat.

Pressure has dramatically risen as well. Discussion currently is Isabel making landfall in either Northern South Carolina or Southern North Carolina and a due north move after landfall. Thinking is a landfalling Category 2 minimal 3 storm.

[Nexus]

hey dennis, take a look at the most recent high resolution visable shot. The center of circulation is shifting back to the center of the storm, and blue can be seen again in the eye. I'm not saying it's anything drastic, but a bad sign indeed.

[headsonpikes]

"Buoys and Gulls"

At the annual fish and game banquet in my home town in B.C., they had Setters and Pointers.

;^)

[Rebelbase]

Revising my last comment, the crossing just above Cape Lookout is about 45-50 miles south of Ocracoke.

[JFC]

speaking of bathroom signs. one seafood place here says inboards and outboards.......

[Nexus]

hey dennis, take a look at the most recent high resolution visable shot. The center of circulation is shifting back to the center of the storm, and blue can be seen again in the eye. I'm not saying it's anything drastic, but a bad sign indeed.

[headsonpikes]

"Buoys and Gulls"

At the annual fish and game banquet in my home town in B.C., they had Setters and Pointers.

;^)

[dennis1x]

well....actually Isabel wont be a cat 1 much longer at this rate....and if you read my posts rain threat will be minimized due to the very fast speed at landfall....also minimized currently by very little heavy rain around the core......

Isabel is rapidly falling apart.....yes the NHC is always the last to weaken storms...but she is weaker than their current report.

[NautiNurse]

the Angus Barn

ROFL! I think I just stood outside and waited for someone else to go in or out.

[1smallVoice]

I think the storm will continue to weak and turn north based on the cold fronts which it will intercept. Lows in Illinois last night were in the 40's.

[dennis1x]

nexus....im looking...trying to use my imagination..but all i see is lots and lots of dry air....



http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/03_ATL_13L.ISABEL_ssmi_ir1km_full.html

[NautiNurse]

inboards and outboards.......

We have a fishing pier here with the same. Got a kick out of listening to a mother explaining to her young son which one he should use.

[Howlin]

I knew you knew! I myself am on a Sudafed ride this morning!

[CollegeRepublican]

A few hours of heavy rain here in Central Maryland WILL cause flooding like we saw in Chester, PA yesterday. It is not a non-event.

[Miss Marple]

Hey, while you were here you missed Edwards' announcement this morning in front of the mill where his daddy worked, and down the street from the post office where his momma worked. You know, the place where he learned the value of work, how your word is your bond, etc. etc.

Just thought you'd like to know.

[Diddle E. Squat]

If Isabell continues to weaken it will be a major disappointment for the 'This is the Apocalypse because of Bush's stance on Israel' nutballs.

[southernnorthcarolina]

The 11 AM report indicates more good news on all fronts -- unless you're an employee of The Weather Channel, in which case, you are deeply saddened.

Since Sunday morning, peak sustained winds have dropped from 160 mph to 105. Central pressure continues to rise steadily. And clearly, the long-awaited turn in direction has taken place.

Over the last 30 hours (Monday, 5 AM to today, 11 AM), Isabel has moved 3.0 degrees north while moving 2.2 degrees west. Compare that with the 30-hour period before that (Sunday, 11 PM through Monday, 5 AM), during which time it moved 1.8 degrees north while moving 5.3 degrees west.

As recently as yesterday, The Weather Channel was conjuring up visions of 30-foot storm surges, and an epic coastal catastrophe. I would submit that they knew then that they were crying "wolf," and that a substantial weakening was inevitable. Even if it does hit the coast (and I still have my doubts), Isabel will be closer to a nuisance than it will be to a cataclysm.

Quit drinking TWC's Kool Ade!

[NittanyLion]

As recently as yesterday, The Weather Channel was conjuring up visions of 30-foot storm surges, and an epic coastal catastrophe. I would submit that they knew then that they were crying "wolf," and that a substantial weakening was inevitable. Even if it does hit the coast (and I still have my doubts), Isabel will be closer to a nuisance than it will be to a cataclysm.

I think that's part of the reason, but mostly I think the forecasters are reluctant to adjust their forecasts based upon personal pride. So I suspect that the discussion taking place are biased toward previous discussions, instead of looking at the current scenario objectively.

[Spirited]

Bump.
Appreciate your tagline.

[dennis1x]

but now theyll switch to the catastrophic rain event angle....it never ends...

[Carolinamom]

News out of Little Rock, Arkansas, that Wesley Clark will join the dwarfs RAINS on Edwards' formal announcement of his own candidacy. I smell a conspiracy for Hillary to grab the brass ring via Clark since he is a big time FOH (friend of Hillary).

Storms are a literary device signaling eminent horrendous events, you know. LOL