Hurricane Isabel:Live Thread #2 "Force Ten Conditions In North Carolina And Further North"

NHC | 9-17-03 | My Favorite Headache

[My Favorite Headache]

Hurricane Isabel Advisory Number 48

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 17, 2003

...Outer bands of Hurricane Isabel moving onshore...weather should gradually worsen...

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Cape Fear North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia...including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds...and the Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within 24 hours.

All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the Hurricane Warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect south of Cape Fear to South Santee River South Carolina...and north of Chincoteague to Sandy Hook New Jersey...including Delaware Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning also remains in effect for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point northward...and for the tidal Potomac.

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Isabel was located by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 31.9 north... longitude 73.9 west or about 250 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.

Isabel is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph. A turn to the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected prior to landfall. On the forecast track...the center of Isabel is expected to make landfall in eastern North Carolina during the day Thursday. However...conditions will deteriorate over a large area well before the center reaches the coast. Tropical storm conditions are already spreading across the coastline.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...with higher gusts. A slight increase in strength is possible prior to landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 315 miles. A buoy located west of the hurricane recently reported wind gusts to 74 mph and 32 foot waves.

An Air Force hurricane hunter plane recently reported a minimum central pressure of 956 mb...28.23 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels... along with extremely large and dangerous battering waves...is expected near and to the north of where the center crosses the coast. Storm surge flooding of 4 to 8 ft above normal tide levels is expected in Chesapeake Bay and the tidal portions of adjacent rivers.

Storm total rainfalls of 6 to 10 inches...with locally higher amounts...are likely in association with Isabel.

There is a threat of isolated tornadoes over eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia on Thursday.

Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...31.9 N... 73.9 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 956 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am EDT.

Forecaster Avila

[NautiNurse]

MSNBC Guy at Morehead City is in one of those evil Lincoln Navigators.

[abner]

Those pics are too funny.

[P.O.E.]

ROFL! I saw a similar thing this morning - the newsguy was hamming it up, and in the background some guy in shorts runs by smiling, waving.

[Howlin]

In this map

http://maps.yahoo.com/maps_result?ed=M7tNO.p_0TqT&csz=Atlantic+Beach%2C+NC&country=us

that is Morehead City; if you move to the left, you can see Indian Beach down at the west end.

The big "island" to the right of the HWY 70 sign is Radio Island. That is where TWC guy is. The MSNBC guys are across the sound at the end of the bridge.

If you keep zooming out, you can see where Morehead/Atlantic Beach is in relation to the Outer Banks.

And a good thing to remember is that this area runs east to west, not north to south, as beaches usually do.

[biblewonk]

Your welcome, it makes perfect sense if you think about it. We know that an object in motion's kenitic energy is expressed as 1/2mvsquared. Think of wind as a bunch of particles. If you double their speed you quadruple the kenitic energy in each particle, BUT you also double the amount of particles hitting an object in a given amount of time, hence cubing the overall energy delta.

I'm a physics/windmillwonk in my spare time. :-D

[Vinnie]

Formula for wind pressure

P = K x V sq.

K = .004, over 100mph .005

[steveegg]

Thanks; couldn't figure out where Radio Island was.

[Theo]

Whew! My wife and I were just on that pier last night. Hm.

We've lost our power here in Chesapeake. Lost it around 8:30 this morning. Good thing I've got a PowerBook and the phone's still working, or I'd be missing the updates on FR. :-)

[COBOL2Java]

Uh oh. Virginia ABC stores have just announced they're closing. Hope y'all have stocked up on your adult beverages!

[Howlin]

On the map I just posted, if you click on #6 you can see Cape Lookout on the right, the little point hanging out. So it's 35 miles east of that.

[NautiNurse]

Latest report--400,000 without power.

[Gabz]

Me too.

Just saw something cool on the local news. Cool enough to actually bring Wal-Mart a couple of notches up in my opinion.

The nearest Wal-Mart is actually in MD

Folks with RVs and campers that were evacuated from my area are camping out in the parking lot of the Wal-Mart. the folks they interviewed were from not that far down the road from me - and they said Wal-Mart is very welcoming of the evacuees from the low lying areas.

I thought that was pretty neat.

On a not so happy note. They just interviewed a guy from Conectiv Power who said their crews have been pulled off the Eastern Shore of Virginia - because sustained winds are over 40mph. Gives me an idea of how long it will take to restore power if we lose it. At least they do have 100 crews on the road and another 400 on standby.

[Slip18]

Off topic here. But why in the heck are the Yankees playing the Orioles right now in Baltimore? You would have thunk they would have cancelled the game before Isabel. Sheesh!

[Vinnie]

How are holding out? They finally sent us home at 12. Just had a power flicker, another.
Expect we are going to lose it shortly. another

[Slip18]

I was having problem with Radio Island, too. Glad it wasn't just me.

[Petronski]

It's too late in the season to try to cancel. The game was scheduled for 7:05 but was moved up to finish before the big stuff hit.

[Howlin]

That's the port; when the Marines come down, the load onto small ships (I forget what they are called) and they take them out to the inlet there at the right end of the island and load them onto the huge Navy vessels.

It's kind of unreal to watch.

One of the reason we had such a problem when we "invaded" Grenada was because the Marines couldn't get out of there!

[steveegg]

It's not far of now, then.

[NautiNurse]

Hey girl, things still quiet in your neighborhood?

[Howlin]

Right now????