While most everything else you said in your post above rings true to me, I find the above statement lacking in realism.
People vote based on their passions. Unfortunately, mostly on what they can be persuaded to hate. The class warfare paradigm is a mechanism that stirs up the passions of hatred in the Democrat Base, and fans into life economic frustrations generally. The more intense the hatred is, the more intense the frustration is, the more likely the people will go to the polls.
A comparison would be in order.
Take for example if you had Ronald Reagan running for President. Here the class warfare stragegy would be useless, because Reagan was never a member of the capitalist elite. He was an actor, and governor of Calfornia, and not particularly wealthy. The left could not generate much animosity in his direction because he did not fit their mold as the enemy.
Compare that to Mitt Romney whose resume shows a Vulture Capitalist, who made his millions lining his pockets with treasures harvested from vunerable and failing business, 50 percent of which he left as a dead carcasses on the road. Everything about Romney's resume fits into the mold of what the Democrat base hates. A Republican fat-cat wall street connected lord of the money markets. To the degree they don't like him, to that degree will they be motivated to make the effort to go to the polls to defeat him.
I can't imagine a person that fits their definition of the capitalist enemy more perfectly than Romney. His nomination would surely energize the Democrat base.
But, as I said, I find the rest of your observations generally accurate.
[roamer_1:] Romney's defeat will have nothing at all to do with firing up Obama's base.
I can't imagine a person that fits their definition of the capitalist enemy more perfectly than Romney. His nomination would surely energize the Democrat base.
No doubt, and I agree with you - It is just that Obama's base is insignificant in comparison to the Conservative base - It is always the Republicans' race to lose.
To wit: Just the Christian Right, with no other conservative factions is capable of fielding 30m voters guaranteed - But if you give them someone to vote *FOR*, that number swells tremendously... Estimates range between 60-100m... In an average voting field of 300m, that is close to one-third of all votes cast! And that is JUST the Christian Right.
No, Romney's defeat will occur precisely because the Conservative base will not turn out for him, and that is the only reason. Even as it was with McCain't:
Now they are finally saying that the reason he lost was because Evangelical turnout was not good - No surprise to me, as I predicted it: McCain supported Planned Parenthood, had a libertarian view of sanctity of Life, and railed against the Christians for years. He pointedly refused to go before the Value Voters, prefering to use Saddleback as an interface to the Christians, where he knew he would not be subject to conservative Christians. Palin was just turd polish and could not effect the real outcome. Don't mess with the Pro-Life position, and don't mess with sanctity of marriage, or you will lose. That verdict is clear.
Romney is the same thing only worse. Mormonism alone is a big problem, but his pro-choice, pro-homo record is simply unpalatable - They WILL vomit him out. There is NO WAY that the Christians will sacrifice their unmovable prime principles in order to vote this guy in. It just ain't gonna happen.
So, you see, it isn't that I disagree with you, but that your point is made moot. It is the Conservative base that will reject him, and that will matter more than any other thing.