Posted on 10/25/2001 8:30:14 AM PDT by Travis McGee
I have come up with what I think is going to happen next in the ongoing drama. Forgive this vanity post, but I think the idea demands discussion in advance of the possible event.
I think OBL is heading for Karachi or Islamabad.
He will stay in Pakistan because it has nukes and medium range rockets, is unstable and ready to blow up like Iran in 79, and of course is closest to Afghanistan for covert travel ease. He wants to be seen as the Mahdi, (Moslem messiah, the next Prophet of Allah) and to do that he needs the adoring masses, and proof that he has humiliated and beaten the Great Satan (and the lackey sell-out government of Musharraf). His "miraculous" escape from under the Amriki bombers and his secret journey to Pakistan will "prove" that the Hand of Allah is protecting and guiding him.
To ensure his safety he will at all times be surrounded by millions of fanatics in densely packed slums where we can not bomb him or send in troops. The micro-model for this will be "Blackhawk Down", the Battle of Mogadishu where (in the Moslem view) they won a great victory and drove the USA out of Somalia. Al Q'aida was instrumental in that battle, particularly by introducing modified anti-helicopter time-fused air-bursting RPGs, and the tactics which led to the shootdowns of several US helicopters, which caused the simple half hour Delta/Ranger "snatch" raid to spin out of control into a furious day and night long battle.
Every day that OBL is loose, appearing like a Super Pope on balconies in front of 100s of thousands of adoring jihadists, his power and influence worldwide will soar like a moon rocket. He will have the 24/7 attention of the entire world media for his every pronouncement, and then he can "ascend" into heaven proving he is truly the Mahdi. Even if we drop a smart bomb on his balcony, he "ascends to heaven" and wins.
If we dare to risk a helicopter/ground attack into the teeming slums to capture or kill him, he will get his "super battle of Mogadishu", which will suit his purpose by killing countless thousands of Moslem noncombatants, driving the entire Moslem world instantly into a world war on America.
And of course any smart bomb we dared to use to kill OBL will kill hundreds of adoring moslem children, proving what bloodthirsty butchers the infidels are.
Even if snipers or or precision fired Hellfire rockets "take him out" on his balcony, we may only kill an OBL double, allowing "the Mahdi" to be "resurrected from the dead" for new appearances, driving his power and influence still higher into the stratosphere.
This scenario has been his ultimate goal all along I believe. I wonder if anyone at the NSC, CIA , NSA or DOS has prepared a counter move to this very possible, even likely, scenario?
There are thousands of armed Northern Alliance soldiers alone, who would blend in perfectly with the crowd. In addition, there is a $10 million reward on his head, for those who don't have an ideological or theological dog in this race.
I hope you're right, I hope he dies buried in a cave bunker in Afghanistan.
I just throw this out in case it happens: what will we do then?
patent
How can you say that? The NA are mainly ethnic Tadzhiks who speak no Pakistani dialects.
As far as the rewards, OBL has had huge rewards on his head for years, with no results.
There was an article yesterday I think in the UK Guardian that says the frontier provinces are really siding with Bin Ladin more and more, even though many of them never did before. The only thing that will head this off is some ex-mujahideen commanders who will support the US. Even they won't be able to pull it off if we keep doing things without regard to local sentiments.
How can you say that? The NA are mainly ethnic Tadzhiks who speak no Pakistani dialects.
The Northern Alliance includes soldiers of Tajik, Uzbek and Hazara ethnic backgrounds, as well as a limited, but increasing number of Pashtuns.
As far as the rewards, OBL has had huge rewards on his head for years, with no results.
Because he hasn’t appeared in front of crowds of “100s of thousands” or even thousands. He will continue to refrain from doing that in order to stay alive.
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