Washington's response can now only be explained in terms of gross neglect or careful design

So we learn that FDR covered up the fact that he had been informed in a timely fashion . . . and a congressional critique of subsequent events showed that "if you wanted to have a stagnant career as an officer, at a time when officers were being rapidly promoted to command a rapidly growing military, it was only necessary to have been right about Pearl Harbor" (quote from memory).

The only thing worse than no intelligence is partial intelligence which the user believes is complete.

Your#3) Correct::

Washington's response can now only be explained in terms of gross neglect or careful design, rather than complete surprise.

Add::

Washington's (BRITAIN'S) response can now only be explained in terms of gross neglect or careful design, rather than complete surprise.

:-(

Interesting that USN Radio Intelligence from a Japanese Fleet that maintained absolute radio silence as it assembled in Tankan Bay in the Kurile Islands in November 1941 until the moment of attack on Pearl Harbor was withheld in Washington. What radio intelligence?

The question has never been did the US have knowledge Japan was planning an attack in the late November early December period. The MAGIC decrytptions (which were never shared with the Pearl Harbor commanders) make it clear that we were. The question is did the US know the precise date the attack would occur and did they know that Pearl Harbor would be the target of an air attack? I have not yet read this book, but nothing I have ever seen has shown any evidence that the US knew the answer to these two questions. Roosevelt and Britain both wanted Japan kept quiet so the US could continue to rearm and enter the war against Germany. Roosevelt was trying to provoke Germany, not Japan. There was no guarantee that Germany would declare war on the US if Japan attacked (Germany was not required to do so under the Axis agreement) and a Japanese attack would complicate going after Germany because the American millitary and people would want revenge against Japan first. Even if Roosevelt did want Japan to attack though (which is possible although I don't believe it), and knew about the attack on Pearl Harbor specifically (which I have seen no evidence of)why not bring the millitary in on the plan so they could win the first round? He would have had his provoccation just from the Japanese attacking the base, he didn't need to let them do so succesfully. Finally, if Roosevelt knew that the attack on Pearl Harbor was coming and for some reason wanted it to come as a surprise to the millitary, why on earth did he allow warnings to be sent out that hostilities with Japan were imminent. In late November a message was sent to all Pacific bases including Pearl Harbor, warning that hostilities could break out with Japan at any moment. The message was termed a "war warning." Roosevelt could not control, or predict, that despite these warnings no aerial recon would be condcuted by Kimmel and Short. In fact the need for such recon had specifically been identified in pre-war navy reports. Although Kimmel and Short were denied critical information that could have changed the outcome of the attack, they still had enough warnings to make a conspiracy extremely dicey if they were not in on it. As Prange wrote in his book on the attack, the real tragedy of Pearl Harbor was not that the U.S. had knowledge of the attack and failed to act on it, but that they had plenty of different pieces of information that could have been put together to reveal the plan but nobody had access to all of them to put the picture together. The politicians relied too much on the MAGIC diplomatic intercepts (which never contained any information on the actual attack plan) to analyze Japanese intentions without lookin at Japanese capabilities. The millitary commanders primarily responsible for defending Pearl Harbor (Kimmel and Short) did not have access to Magic and therefore didn'have the opportunity to attach signifcane to certain messages (i the "plot messages" sent by the Japanese consulate dividing pearl harbor into a grid and reporting the location of each ship on that grid) that the politicians and more senior millitary people might have missed. Everybody thought the Philippines would be the primary target and ignored signs contrary to this expectation. In short, a tragedy but I still haven't seen proof it was one intentionally instigated by Roosevelt.

The title of the book is "Pearl Harbor Redefined: USN Radio Intelligence in 1941. I disagree with the authors conclusions that information was withheld in Washington that allowed the Japanese attack to occur.

A Japanese miniature submarine was sunk trying to enter Pearl Harbor an hour before the first planes arrived. A US Army Radar Station picked up the incoming Japanese aircraft. The intelligence available at Pearl Harbor was realtime and far easier to evaluate as a Code Red situation by the people in Pearl than intelligence available in Washington.

What if we had known? Would the American carrier force been brought back to assist in the defense of Pearl? Would the American Fleet have sailed out to sea to meet the Japanese Fleet in battle? IMHO any scenario other than the one that occurred would have led to the lose of the American carrier force on December 7, 1941 and in all probability a much longer war in the Pacific.

The suggestion that "Roosevelt knew it was coming" to Pearl Harbor, is bogus. America was getting ready for war with Japan, but thought the first shot would be in the Philippines.

Well, that in itself is significant, don't you recall The Adventure of Silver Blaze in which we have:

the curious incident of the dog in the night-time."

"The dog did nothing in the night-time."

"That was the curious incident," remarked Sherlock Holmes.

In fairness, however, the Japanese used fake radio traffic to imply the ships were still in their usual areas, and used the ships' regular operators for the deception (since each radio operator is identifiable by his 'hand').

The suggestion that "Roosevelt knew it was coming" to Pearl Harbor, is bogus. America was getting ready for war with Japan, but thought the first shot would be in the Philippines.

Bull! The America First Pacifist Movement was huge at the time. Americans were overwelmingly against our involvement into Europe's and Asia's war. As for our military, troops were still yelling "BANG" with wooden rifles because of lack of ammo. FDR not only knew about the attack, but allowed it to happen!

Why? If he knew why not win the first battle? If he knew, why warn Kimmell and Short and the other Pacific commanders that an attack could come at any time without a declaration of war?If he wanted to aid Britain and fight Germany, why pick a fight with Japan that could only distract from that goal I am not a defender of Roosevelt, and certainly there were screw-ups with the intelligence information available, both by the millitary and the politicians. But there is no evidence that anyone in the US government knew that Pearl Harbor specifically would be attacked on December 7th.

Try from the National Archives II ... COMSUM 14 Summary report of Novemebr 30, 1941 ... "Akagi heard on tactical circuits..."

Yup, in the National Archives of the United States ... so was "radio silence: as absolute as you believe?

Or, another one - "COMINT and Pearl Harbor: FDR's Mistake" by Barkin and Meyer, International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, Volume 2, (Winter 1988) No. 4 - notes that Longwave and Shortwave are different....

Two points ... please explain why Pearl Harbor was the only military installation to have such detailed mapping - so called "Bomb Plts" which was known in Washington months before the attack.

Also, when Sec. Knox arrived at Pearl Harbor he asked if the Saturady night message had arrived ... No one had seen it and Knox replied, to parpahrase, " ... Well we sent it!" Was Knox (the Old Tough Rider duped by FDR ... alert the fleet Saaturday to sortie and intercept the Japanese???

Pearl! Dec. 7, 1941- what really happened?

Apparently the Phillipines were as unprepared as Pearl Harbor for what the US Army described as the "surprise attack of December 8, 1941'. We weren't ready on December 7th and we were just as unprepared on Dec 8th.

why the H*LL is stuff from this period still TOP SECRET-and unreleased?!

The bomb plot messages are what Kimmell complained about after the war. They were decoded by Magic in Washington and not sent to him. The intelligence people and Magic users (extremely high level officials, limited I believe to equivalent of joint chiefs) didn't appreciate the significane of the messages, which is perhaps the most major intelligence failure of the whole Pearl Harbor episode. However, nothing in those messages specifically said that Pearl Harbor would be attacked or gave a specific date for the attack. In short, the bomb plot messages required interpretation which they didn't get.

I am not sure which Saturday mesage you are referring to (I am at work and can't check sources). If it is the one I am thinking of warning of a complete rupture of diplomatic relations with Japan, based again on Magic intercepts that did not reveal the attack on Pearl Harbor, the millitray communications to Pearl Harbor were down at the time it was sent and so it went out Western Union (!) and actually arrived during the attack. Again, there were no specifics of the attack in that message, just a general warning that hostilities with Japan could break out at any moment, which Kimmel and Short had already received plenty of warning about.

Again, if Roosevelt specifically knew about the attack on Pearl Harbor, why not warn the millitary so we could win the first round, and if for some reason the millitray couldn't be warned why were all the warnings that have been documented sent? There were plenty of errors committed in Washington and Pearl Harbor, but the hypothesis the Roosevelt knew and allowed the attack to occur just doesn't make sense.

The British did not declassify their records from the American Revolution until the 1930's. They created a stir because they revealed the British were not planning on honoring the surrender terms at Saratoga and were going to use the paroled troops again on the American contintent. Plus the stuff that is still classified deals with code breaking, which the national security people have always been extremely reluctant to make public.

Thanks to MacArthur, who refused permission to launch bombing raids on Formosa or scramble the aircraft. There are reports he had something close to a breakdown at the start of the war, that are documented in Tolland's history of the Pacific War.