As India and Pakistan – both declared nuclear powers – appear poised to go to war with each other for the fourth time in half a century, it remains unclear whether either nation actually has the capability to deliver nuclear weapons to the enemy. Even as Secretary of State Colin Powell yesterday twice telephoned the leaders of both nations to urge caution and restraint, experts and analysts were unsure if Islamabad or New Delhi can deliver nuclear payloads.
"The current status of delivery systems for Indian [and Pakistani] nuclear weapons is unclear," says an analysis by the Federation of American Scientists. Though "almost all" of Pakistan's nuclear program "is focused on weapons applications," FAS analysts continued, overall the program is still "not as broad as India's."
Yet neither appears to have a distinct nuclear-weapons advantage.
India is believed to have between 60-65 nuclear weapons, but in 1998 an Indian nuclear researcher named G. Balachandran estimated that New Delhi only had about 10 weapons "ready to be assembled and mounted on warplanes or missiles," FAS observed. In March of that same year, the Institute for Science and International Security estimated that India had stockpiled enough enriched uranium to make 78 nuclear devices, but "estimates as high as 200 nuclear devices are based on estimates of plutonium that could be extracted from India's six unsafeguarded heavy-water nuclear power plants," FAS scientists noted.
Pakistan, by comparison, reportedly had assembled 10 warheads by the mid-1990s, all based on a Chinese design. However, analysts are unsure as to whether Islamabad has actually assembled any warheads or how much material the nation has to manufacture more bombs.
Generally, nuclear weapons are delivered in three ways: by missile (ballistic and intercontinental), by aircraft (bombs, missiles), or by ship (missiles). WorldNetDaily has examined the most recent data available regarding the status of Indian and Pakistani nuclear-weapons delivery systems and has discovered that both nations have a primitive capability that is much less sophisticated than the five other declared nuclear powers – the U.S., Great Britain, France, Russia and China. (Israel is suspected of possessing nuclear weapons; South Africa built about six in the 1980s but has since destroyed them; North Korea and Iran appear on the verge of developing them; and Japan could probably develop them fairly quickly).
Tensions between the two rivals flared after Dec. 13, when five gunmen India says were members of two Pakistani-based Islamic militant groups attacked the Indian Parliament in New Delhi. Thirteen people, including the five gunmen, were killed. Pakistan denied involvement but nonetheless ordered 80,000 troops and their equipment to the country's northern border.
India has responded in kind, and the two rivals have exchanged gunfire and artillery over the past week.
According to the Center for Defense Information, both countries have a small assortment of possible nuclear-weapons delivery devices, though neither possesses systems of the complexity – and range – possessed by the world's other nuclear powers.
As for Pakistan, its land-based capability rests mostly with short- and intermediate-range missiles such as the Hatf-1 with a range of about 500 kilometers (311 miles), the Ghauri-II with a range of about 1,200 kilometers (745 miles), and the Shaheen II with a range of about 2,000 kilometers (1,243 miles).
Indian missile capabilities are similar. New Delhi could field the Prithvi, with a range of about 250 kilometers (155 miles), or the Agni series, the longest of which has a range of nearly 3,500 kilometers (2,170 miles).
In terms of air-launched nuclear weapons, the Pakistan Air Force's 32 F-16s or 60 Chinese-made Fantan Q-5 fighter/bombers can deliver either nuclear missiles or bombs. India's capability here is superior, however, due to its Russian-built Su30MKK fighter/bomber, Tu-22M long-range bombers and other assorted aircraft.
By comparison, Western nations also have a third nuclear option – launching weapons from sea. Launching nuclear weapons from warships or submarines is, so far, a capability that has eluded both Pakistan and India.
WorldNetDaily reported in February that Pakistan was working to put nuclear weapons aboard the country's growing submarine fleet.
Pakistani navy spokesman Roshan Khayal said then the move was being considered because India also was planning to eventually equip its submarine force with similar nuclear-capable weapons.
"Pakistan may equip its submarines with nuclear missiles to defend its key naval installations," he said.
Meanwhile, earlier this year, India released its own defense strategy papers regarding its most recent nuclear developments, which included the addition of nuclear weapons to submarines.
At the time, U.S. officials did not think Pakistan or India had "weaponized" nuclear technology.
"As far as the U.S. knows, [India and Pakistan] have not weaponized any of their missiles," Nicolas Berry, a senior analyst on Pakistani-Indian defense issues for the Center for Defense Information, told WorldNetDaily.
Yesterday, both nations continued a sort of tit-for-tat sanctioning, each ordering embassy staff to return home and banning airline flights into both countries.
India had already stationed about one-third of its 1.2 million-member army along its northern border with Pakistan, near the disputed Kashmir region. By late yesterday, reports said that Defense Minister George Fernandes announced the Indian troop buildup would be completed shortly.
"In the next two to three days, the deployment process will be completed, and the forces will be ready for any eventuality," he said.
A Pakistani military spokesman said there were no exchanges of fire but that Pakistan had matched India's troop buildup, Fox News reported.
