Posted on 12/31/2001 4:17:02 PM PST by Orion78
In an earlier Memorandum to the CIA this analyst explained the common Sino-Soviet long range strategy of convergence with the West and the intended exploitation for the purposes of this strategy of the new openings arising from the 'reformed' political structure of the former USSR and the emergence of the alleged 'democrats', 'non-Communists' and 'independents' who are running it.(1)
The present assessment shows how, because of Western ignorance of and confusion about the strategy underlying 'Perestroika' and because of Western political and economic support for the so-called reform of the Soviet system, the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) has been successfully installed and has begun to carry out concrete new geopolitical strategies within the framework of the long-standing overall Communist strategy of convergence. These strategies are still being guided and coordinated by the same Soviet strategists who have simply shifted away from the use of the old worn-out ideology and the familiar but obsolete patterns, to the exploitation of geopolitical factors and of the new potentialities of the 'reformed' Communist system. The common feature of these geopolitical strategies is the manipulation and use of the 'democrat' and 'independent' images which the change in form from the USSR to the CIS and it's individual members has provided so abundantly and the nature of which the West has, so far, failed to comprehend.(2)
The following upgraded strategies may be distinguished:
The first strategy involves the CIS and Russia in particular with dealing directly with longstanding American allies like Germany and Japan and causing their allegiance to be shifted away from the United States towards economic and political alliance with the CIS and especially with Russia.To this end Russia is exploiting American economic rivalry with Germany and Japan, together with the large-scale involvement of Germany in economic cooperation with Russia and the offer to them of lucrative market and investment opportunities in Russia. China can expected to join in this campaign to steal away old American allies by concentration on offering the Japanese various investment opportunities in China.(3)
The second upgraded strategy involves the use of the new 'independent' Muslim states in the CIS to establish and develop economic and political cooperation with the fundamentalists in Iran and elsewhere in the Muslim world. According to this assessment the much-advertised feud between the Armenians and the Azerbaijanis of Turkish descent in Nagorno-Karabakh may be a tactical ploy to involve Turkey, Iran and other Muslim countries in support of eventual alliance with Azerbaijan and other Central Asian Muslim states in the CIS. This strategy takes into account the growing power of the fundamentalists and the possibility of gaining control over substantial oil reserves.(4)
A primary objective of the strategy here is to achieve a partnership with the fundamentalists in Iran and Algeria and to replace the present American-oriented rulers of Saudi Arabia with fundamentalists. The opening in Saudi Arabia of a Russian Embassy and the probable opening of Embassies by Muslim states of the CIS should be seen, not only as an attempt to extract a few extra Saudi billions, but as part of an offensive to bring about a political reorientation in that country.(5)
Chinese Muslims can also be expected to play an active role in promoting alliances with the fundamentalists. The supply of missiles to Iran by the Chinese should be looked at in the context of this strategy.(6)
The third strategy is to facilitate a shift of the emerging regime in South Africa from the Western sphere of influence towards close economic and political cooperation and alliances with the CIS using for this purpose old friendships with leaders of the African National Congress and the South African Communist party with which it is effectively merged. One can expect that the offensive to facilitate such a partnership will become more active and more visible than ever, after the 'reforms' in the CIS and South Africa have stabilized.(7)
The fourth strategy is that of using and manipulating the changes in the former Soviet Union to bring about, in the longer run, radical changes in relations between the United States and Israel, in the political power structure in Israel itself, in Israel's position in the Middle East and in world opinion towards Israel.
The fact new leaders in Russia have promised the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Germany, the Baltic countries and Poland, and that they are insisting on a seven-year term for the strategic arms reduction treaty being negotiated with the United States, are indications that the Russian strategists have their own timetable. This is not based on what is going to occur in the CIS according to the optimistic expectations of Western observers, but rather upon the Soviet estimate of the time needed for the strategies described above to take effect. The possibility that the United States will lose valuable allies during this period is not something new. There is nothing permanent in the international relations. The Americans experienced this not so long ago when the suddenly lost Iran.
The vulnerability of the United States arises from the fact that its basic premises, assumptions and perceptions about the present and future of Russia and the CIS are wrong. Where the United States sees golden opportunities, it is in reality facing traps set for it by the Soviet long-range strategists. The impact on the United States of the successful execution of these strategies would be devastating.
The loss of old allies and the loss of oil reserves, following the equally catastrophic loss of South Africa, would result in the re-emergence of the CIS and China as stronger adversaries, and in an 'irreversible' chance in the balance of world power in their favour. The United States would be weakened and divided and the pressure for the impetus towards convergence of the CIS and China with the United States on Sino-Russian terms would be intensified.(8)
(2)
Strategic Central Asia focus of new US attention (9/25/01)
China, Russia and Central Asia unite against US missile shield (6/15/01)
(3)
Canada's nuclear deal with Iran alarms the US (7/9/99)
China Conquers Central Asia through Trade (4/14/01)
Japan Investments Doing Well in Vietnam (6/26/01)
China lets capitalists join Communist Party (7/3/01)
South Korea, China, Japan agree to create economic ministers' forum (11/5/01)
Pakistan, Germany to enhance economic ties (12/7/01)
Putin urges Germany not to isolate Russia from Europe
(4)
Russia, the Caucasus, Central Asia, and Ukraine (8/13/99)
Turkey Has Challenged Russia (1/21/00)
Turkey increasingly asserts its role in Central Asia (11/11/00)
Turkey to drill for oil in Iraq (12/12/01)
(5)
Saudi Arabia funds `behind Taleban' (9/3/98)
Castro Ends Visit to Iran (5/10/01)
Japan, Iran to boost economic ties (7/22/01)
Saudi Arabia Was The Center Of Hijack Planning (10/17/01)
US to confront Saudi Arabia on financing terrorism (12/2/01)
(6)
China providing advanced aid in long-range missiles to Iran, Syria (6/6/00)
Iran to buy cruise missiles from Russia (5/16/01)
(7)
South Africa And China Might Buy Arms From Each Other (6/7/00)
South Africa and Castro's apartheid (5/25/01)
The Communist Takeover of South Africa (8/01/01)
(8)
China, Russia and Central Asia unite against US missile shield (6/15/01)
Russia, China sign historic friendship treaty (7/16/01)
Jiang calls for new order to counter US (7/17/01)
Russia to the rescue? Moscow says Europe should turn eastward for security help (12/7/01)
... this analyst ...... has issues with the analytical process.
Great Post!
NeverGore
Look, it's verys simple. Russia and China provide Political, Economic and Military support to the nations that sponsor terrorism. Terrorists can then spend ~10,000$ and force the USA to spend BILLIONS to clean up the mess. These people do not play by our rules of Capitalism and the Free Market. What MILLIONS of AMERICANS work so hard for so many years, is as easily destroyed as the World Trade Center on SEPT-11-2001. The Ultimate goal of Communism (Russia/China)and Communist Countries that sponsor Muslim Fundamentalist Terrorism, (Afghanistan/Iran/Iraq/PLO/South Africa/Turkey/Sudan), is the Political, Economic and Military downfall of the United States. It is evident from the links I referenced to the article in Post#2 and the links on the right side of my home page, that this plan is in action as a result of 9/11 and has become very successful.
"The present Russian and Chinese leaders face three centres of nuclear military power with which they have to deal : the United States, Western Europe and Israel. They calculate that they will be able to neutralize American military power through the combination of their new 'democratic' image, their 'partnership' with the United States and nuclear disarmament negotiations and agreements. Western Europe will be neutralized through the concept if common European security and the membership of the Eastern European 'independent' states in West European institutions. Israel's nuclear capability, which will not be reduced on account of changes in the former USSR, will be a matter of continuing concern to the Russians and Chinese. Foreign Intelligence Service indicates the importance attached to this theatre by the leadership. It cannot be ruled out that, behind the screen of cooperation with the West in preventing nuclear know how, the Russians, through their nuclear installations. The operation might ostensibly be conducted by Arab or Iranian Muslim fundamentalists or perhaps by a renegade Soviet scientist or general in the service of some other terrorist group..."
Memorandum to the CIA, February 1993
"The present Russian and Chinese leaders face three centres of nuclear military power with which they have to deal : the United States, Western Europe and Israel. They calculate that they will be able to neutralize American military power through the combination of their new 'democratic' image, their 'partnership' with the United States and nuclear disarmament negotiations and agreements. Western Europe will be neutralized through the concept if common European security and the membership of the Eastern European 'independent' states in West European institutions. Israel's nuclear capability, which will not be reduced on account of changes in the former USSR, will be a matter of continuing concern to the Russians and Chinese. Foreign Intelligence Service indicates the importance attached to this theatre by the leadership. It cannot be ruled out that, behind the screen of cooperation with the West in preventing nuclear know how, the Russians, through their nuclear installations. The operation might ostensibly be conducted by Arab or Iranian Muslim fundamentalists or perhaps by a renegade Soviet scientist or general in the service of some other terrorist group..."
Memorandum to the CIA, February 1993
"Under concealed Russian guidance, the Muslims of the former USSR, especially the Azers, will seek to cooperate and ally themselves with Muslims in Iran and the Arab states while Russia maintains its open policy of cooperation and partnership with the West. In this way, China openly and Russia secretly, will jointly attempt to swing the balance of power in their favour in the highly strategic, oil-producing Arab/Iranian areas of the Middle East."Memorandum to the CIA:27 September 1993
Sorry for the double post.
(1)In the Political arena:
The failure of US Policymakers to comprehend the veiled aggressiveness and hostility towards the United States inherent in Sino-Russian strategy and the belief that the political and economic reforms in Russia and the partial introduction of capitalism in China have foreshadowed these countries' development into real democracies, have eroded the effectiveness of US policies in the foreign affairs, defence, intelligence and counter-intelligence fields. US Policymakers have recklessly accepted the premise the Russia and China are no longer their enemies, but are rather potential allies and partners fully deserving of US support. Only countries like Iran, Iraq and North Korea - which (ironically, in this context) work secretly with Russia and China - are still considered potential adversaries.
A particularly alarming indication of the extent to which US foreign policy has become degraded is Washington's willingness to consider the admission of Russia and other former Warsaw Pact countries into NATO - an alliance which provided the United States and its allies with effective protection from these countries for many years. This policy jeopardizes the security of the United States, gravely threatens the security of Western Europe, and undermines the United States' role as the leader of the developed world.
US Policymakers should urgently re-examine their assumptions about the 'progress' of Russia and China 'towards democracy'. They should take account of Sino-Russian strategy and should recognize that the long-term strategic, political and economic threat comes from a Sino-Russian axis and associated participants like North Korea, Iran, Iraq and Syria. The Russian and Chinese leaders are still committed to their objective of world domination and believe that, disguised as 'democrats', in accordance with Leninist teaching, they will be able to achieve it.
The Ames case has provided a conspicuous reminder of the Kremlin's veiled but continuing hostility towards the United States and its institutions, and of Russian determination to dominate them. It is extraordinary that the US Administration has managed to ignore the political implications of the Ames case - continuing to claim success for its Russian policy and conducting business as usual with the Kremlin as if the Ames case, and its ominous implications, were of no significance.
The United States should reassert its role as the leader of the world, explaining the long term strategic threat to its NATO allies and Japan and reinforcing its traditional alliances with them. To continue ignoring the innumerable indications of Leninist deception will add cumulatively to the scale of the tragedy the world faces.
Iran, China to promote cooperation on oil (1/3/01)
Iran, Russia Leaders Talk Arms, Oil (3/12/01)
China's oil giant Sinopec to explore oil in Iran (1/13/01)
Iran sees OPEC consensus on oil output cut (11/11/01)
Iran opens sea lanes to Iraq's oil shipments (6/6/00)
Is that the best arguement you can come up with?
"At the request of U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, military analysts are currently developing a new defense strategy, due in September, which will sufficiently reduce American combat readiness, defense capabilities and effectiveness. While it's very difficult to predict what could happen to America's defenses after this new strategy is implemented, there is no doubt that from that time onward the U.S. military will no longer be prepared to wage two major wars simultaneously."
Russian Defector Warns US against Planned Unilateral Disarmament Measures
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