Threat Matrix 2019

New week - same craziness. Back from road travels, now here’s what I’ve been watching

Iran/et al
Things are on a hair trigger, if Iran sneezes wrong its game on.

- Rocket attack on US embassy in Bagdad: Many think it was spurred by Iranian supported rebels. Right after the attack POTUS tweeted that if Iran initiates combat, it will cease to be a nation. Additionally, some think that factions in Iraq’s govt are supporting military action against Iran to get them out of the country.
- Gulf states (Gulf Cooperation council -GCC) are at heightened alert status and more vigorously patrolling/monitoring activity in the gulf and interfacing with the US carrier task force. Most likely because there is evidence that Iranian supported proxies did attack 4 ship last week.
- Britain and other allies have placed their assets and interests on high alert based upon the ‘threat of attack’ intelligence.
- The Trump administration is facing strong internal opinions regarding what further actions to take. Many point to Bolton as the source of wanting an attack on Iran sooner than later. Trump isn’t so convinced, but is convinced enough to have forces in position to counter strike if Iran gets froggy. How the administration moderates this needs watching.
- Israel is facing more rumblings from Iranian backed terror groups in Gaza and Lebanon. Israel struck a probable Iranian rocket/missile facility in Syria a couple of days ago. Iran has threatened to attack Israel if the US launches any military strikes on Iran. Probably not the smartest thing as Israel would have little regret nuking Iran.
- Saudi Arabia has stated it would defend itself against Iran if attacked. The Saudis are a ‘theologically’ opposed to Iranian form of Islam and the suni/shia conflict has been going for centuries.
- Warnings given to airlines with routes in the middle east / Persian gulf region that they may be “misidentified” during current regional tensions.
- The carrier task force (USS Lincoln) and the assault ship USS Kearsarge were last reported training together in northern Arabian Sea. Along with enhanced air support (including 4 x B52s) this give US Central Command a very potent strike/counter strike capability.
- China is bucking US sanctions and buying Iranian oil.

My thoughts. Unless Iran does something VERY overt, they may just keep tensions at a low simmer and operate through their proxies for the moment. If they can cause the US to maintain presence and “threat of attack” story drawn out, they could use it for propaganda purposes (big mean trump/US threating little old us). However, Iran is in some serious hurt in that they’ve spent all billions 0bama gave them and drastically reduced oil revenue on the effort in Syria and support of terrorist supporting proxies. Internal discontent over the policy of the Mullahs is reaching a boiling point again. This means in the long term, Iran is likely to attempt something to break the standoff that is draining them financially as well as militarily (they have/are losing a lot of ‘soldiers’ in Syria).

Venezuela
After the failed over throw attempt, Guaido is trying to negotiate something - clearly weakened. Citizens are facing a gasoline shortage in the country (with one of the largest oil reserves in the world). Right now things in that region are on the back burner.

N Korea
Kim threw his little temper tantrum. Now has to face increased sanctions with his country facing a very severe famine (again). China and Russia sneaking in food and oil, but not in volumes necessary to offset conditions.

US
Place on your radar folks - if AG Barr gets indictments on key Russia Gate deep staters, expect more leftist unrest from the likes of Antifa/BLM. I expect indictments of some of the low hanging fruit (and possibly trials) before the next election. Provided Trump wins second term, then expect the big fish to be fried by Barr. Civil unrest would become explosive - but that level is not until post 2020. Secondly, going after the low fruit gives time for them to squeal for sentencing deals by ratting out higher levels of conspiracy. Thirdly - outright indictments of Hillary / 0bama prior to the election could generate a backlash and fire up democrat leftists more than Trump supporters. indictments of lower levels would generate more Trump support energy while not enough to fire up demonRat base. IMHO.

Iran
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Acting Secretary of Defense Patrick Shanahan, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Joseph Dunford and an unnamed representative of the intelligence community will brief the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives about Iran on Tuesday afternoon.

Yesterday I noted that Iran is hurting financially. Encountered an article in the Jewish press that bears this out (https://www.jewishpress.com/news/middle-east/lebanon/facing-financial-crisis-hezbollah-launches-financial-jihad/2019/05/20/).
In summary, Hezbollah fighters have had their salary cut in half and overall funding support from Iran cut from one billion to 800 million per year. Lebanese Shiites are complaining that too much money is going to support the civil war in Syria rather than more beneficial projects in Lebanon (since they are not fighting Israel). Hezbollah has cut staff and funding for many other projects to try to keep up their military budget. they have even sought out loans from Lebanese bank, but were turned down due to their terrorist status.

Competing for the money are the Houthi rebels in Yemen who are fighting a proxy war against Saudi Arabia.

Iran has also been reported to have quadrupled its production of enriched uranium in response to US sanctions and actions.

Again - long term the sanctions are putting the pinch on Iran and if the crank is tightened more, Iran could try to strike at US to save face and gather support from other Shiites. External and internal pressures are increasing. Watch proxy forces and potentially cyber attacks occurring first and if they are unsuccessful, they may go kinetic on a big US target.

Iran
SecDef Shanahan stated the US deployment of forces to the Persian gulf has “put on hold the potential for attacks on Americans”. This statement concerns me in that it represents a false sense of security. Iran has not been neutered in the matter, but maintains a potent threat. Much of this threat has been revealed in recent days with the documented deployment of anti-ship and anti-air missiles on Iranian held islands in the gulf. That, combined with their obsession to sink a US carrier could result in an asymmetrical attack. The sinking of the Lincoln would be a huge propaganda win as well as devastating to the US and President Trump. Our naval forces should be even more alert, and not less.

Syria
US is responding to reports that Syria potentially used chemical weapons in violation of cease fire agreements. The US has twice struck facilities related to chlorine production and may do so again if this pans out.

Israel/Gaza
In spite of the ‘cease fire’, Hamas “fire balloon” units plan on a substantial attack in the near term. Israel and the region is currently experiencing an exceptional heat wave and in spite of the wet winter, vegetation is dry.

US
Potential political storm warning. Pelosi meeting with caucus who are demanding immediate impeachment proceedings and then meeting with the POTUS. IF she buckles, the POTUS meeting may result in an ultimatum for the President to resign. This could cause extensive civil unrest - monitoring.

Note Date:

Holder: ‘Mockingbird’ has lessons for terror fight
Associated Press ^ | Sept. 21, 2010 | JAY REEVES

TUSCALOOSA, Ala. – U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder said Tuesday Harper Lee’s famous novel about racial injustice in the South, “To Kill a Mockingbird,” still holds lessons for authorities who seek to fight terrorism while preserving the rights of innocent Muslims.

Speaking at the University of Alabama for a ceremony marking the 50th anniversary of Lee’s only published book, Holder described how Lee’s novel illustrates that a system can “grind innocent people into the ground,” something he said was important to remember in dealing with innocent Muslim citizens in the United States.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2594376/posts

Relatively slow week plus lots of travel. Here’s my views on what’s happening

Iran
Apart from Iran beating its chest, not much has occurred. It appears that Bolton for the moment has been reigned in. However, situation still tense.

Israel
Apart from the “normal” strike/counter strikes the biggest is the impending second election. Netanyahu was unable to form a coalition. Watch to see how the surrounding terror groups try to exploit this.
Also, the awaited peace plan is expected out shortly (first part of June). Abbas has already rejected it, so unless other arab states can twist his arm, it is DOA.

Venezuela
With effective political opposition effectively eradicated, the country continues into a tailspin. Inflation reportedly hit 10 MILLION percent. Even criminals are suffering, since no one has any thing left of value. Observers are saying that the conditions are the worst seen in over 50 years (even post WW2). Diseases like malaria are starting to spread across the country as the medical system has imploded due to lack of supplies and poor conditions.

N Korea
After shooting off some short range stuff, Kim has returned to dormancy. Big on his list of problems is the famine that is starting to ravage his country (again). Even military has started raiding the countryside around bases for food. This reportedly has driven farmers farther away from these bases.

US
The Central US is staggering under record flooding, and tornadic activity. This has resulted in substantial losses of livestock, grain harvested stores and has delayed planting. The outlook is for more of the same for the extended forecast period.

Ebola
Still out of control and health care workers being targeted for killing. Vaccine seems to have helped where administered, but terrorist attacks on health care workers have effectively stopped their work.

Financial
Normally I stay out of this except for the interesting post on zerohedge regarding the stock price for Deuteches Bank. This bank is one of those ‘too big to fail’ ones that has great potential TO fail. Commentary is that if the share price reaches $6.40 (American dollars) that the bottom will fall out and since this bank is so overloaded with derivatives and bad loans it could trigger a global crash. Keep monitoring, yesterday finished at $6.92 having fallen from around $13.06 last August 2018.

Been on the go but doesn’t mean I’m not watching.

N. Korea
Continued uranium enrichment. Kim toeing line with ‘tactical’ rocket launches. Trump is so far tolerant.
Kim also killed those involved in the fiasco in Vietnam - those fired by Trump should be thankful for whom they work for.

Iran
More chest beating by Iran. But they are pulling a long game. US forces can only maintain a high level of readiness for so long before starting to lose their edge. Iran is waiting/watching for an opening that is also timely. We are now several weeks into this.
Iran also had more supplies destined for Hezbollah destroyed recently. Syria/Russia show no interest in shutting this down.

Global Food Issues
Flooding is expected to continue along the Mississippi, Missouri, Arkansas and other rivers for the next several weeks. Crop planting (principally corn and soy) is woefully behind and probably won’t be able to be made up this year. Swine “ebola” epidemic currently centered in China has forced the destruction of about 30% of the hog production. this epidemic has spread throughout most of asia and has reportedly pushed into eastern Europe.

Israel vs ALL
Standard sporadic terror issues, quite given that Netanyahu didn’t get a majority govt formed and now new elections are due.
The Gaza/Hamas rocket attacks of last month exposed a weakness in Iron Dome - mainly that it can eventually be overwhelmed by volume of fire. Israeli know how may be able to fix some of that, but I suspect IAF may be more aggressive in attacking potential launch sites and not those that had just recently fired. This will cause additional collateral damage, but the Trump Administration so far hasn’t been concerned about that.
Still waiting for details on the new peace proposal.

Ebola
Out of control and now documented in Uganda.

Follow up analysis

Iran

This is what we know. Two tankers were struck by some kind of projectile this morning over a span of 45 minutes. Some analysis suggests that the damage resembles that from a torpedo and there is audio from one of the ship’s captain’s distress call stating his vessel was hit by a ‘torpedo’.

Both vessels were traveling out of the gulf area. Both were struck on the starboard side - side facing away from Iran.

Both vessels were operated for/by Japanese interests and were possibly enroute to Japan. Japan PM Abe was in Iran at that same time trying to negotiate with Iran to comply with nuclear restrictions in order to have sanctions lifted. Interesting timing.

The big question is “who”. US administration sources openly speculate it was Iran. Other speculation is that the ships were attacked on the side opposite of Iran to throw confusion and cast doubts on the source. However, given that some sort of (probably a torpedo) ‘projectile’ was used, the primary suspect is Iran. Question is how quickly can the vessel that launched the attack(s) be found and neutralized. Iran does have mini-subs that would be ideal for this kind of sniping mission.

There is the possibility that this is a ‘false flag’ type incident, but the fact remains two vessels were deliberately attacked in the gulf of oman.

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