Refuting Fermi: No Evidence for Extraterrestrial Life?

National Institute for Discovery Science ^ | John B. Alexander, Ph.D

[denydenydeny]

This is the best article I've ever seen on the subject of the uniqueness of Earth and our civilization.

[SunkenCiv]

I can't reply now, someone's pounding on the door, claiming to be from the FBI. ;')

[KevinDavis]

To say that we are the only intelligent lifeforms in this universe is wrong.. The universe has billions upon billions of stars and yet we are alone??? Go figure..

[RightWhale]

The answer to the paradox, so many stars, so few civilizations, could be that civilizations have a short lifespan. Even a lifetime of a million years would not be enough to guarantee that there would be another civilization inside the Milky Way. Since our own glorious civilization is maybe five thousand years old, we probably have no idea what it would take to get another million years out of our system.

[demlosers]

Yeah, it's downright silly to make that conclusion.

[Frank_Discussion]

OT, but what's your tagline about?

[MHGinTN]

There is another explanation. Consider how long we've been spewing forth our radio and TV radiation. If we make a large leap in technology, one that eliminates the inherent 'waste of radiation' in our communications programs, we would conceivably end our transmission status, at what entire length of emission period? We may indeed have many more advanced civilizations around us but are unable to detect them due to their efficiency level. [And for the record, since I've seen craft that are definitely not of this planet technology, I DO believe we are visited fairly regularly. It is the ingrained arrogance of the Fermi postulate that astounds one ... he assumed we at our current technological level were in the mainstream of civilizations possible for contact.]

[LibWhacker]

The error is the a priori assumption that UFOs cannot exist therefore . . .

That's a silly claim! Fermi's paradox makes NO SUCH assumption.

If someone tells you that the earth is inhabited by dragons and you ask where they are, you haven't made an assumption that they do not exist. You're simply acknowledging that if dragons inhabit the earth, we ought to see evidence for them, and that the burden of proof is in on the guy who says otherwise.

[KevinDavis]

I also believe in God. However, God did not create this universe just for us..

[RightWhale]

I've seen craft that are definitely not of this planet technology

I haven't.

[RightWhale]

Needs to be said.

[Frank_Discussion]

Why? What problems? I truly don't understand your tagline.

[RightWhale]

Any problem. All problems. Societal, not personal. Iran for example; Fermi's paradox for another example. Wouldn't be a problem.

[Frank_Discussion]

OK. I think I get it. I'm all for moonbases, yeah buddy! Been a member of the Moon Society for a number of years, used to work with the founder. NASA will get us back, or private industry, it matters not to me in the least. Just DO it, already!

[RightWhale]

Go ahead, name a societal problem. We will establish a link to the lack of a moonbase.

[SunkenCiv]

The claim is A) not mine, but B) not silly. The burden of proof is on those who claim that anything they haven't experienced never happened. That's what "skeptics" about UFO sightings have in common with those who deny the Moon landings ever took place.

[SunkenCiv]

The answer to the paradox, so many stars, so few civilizations, could be that civilizations have a short lifespan.

Quite so. For example, the Earth gets pasted from time to time by asteroids and other space debris. When that happens, it can be quite serious, and has been quite serious.

[SunkenCiv]

Possible solutions to Fermi's Paradox fall in the following categories:

• They Are Here
  • They Were Here and They Left Evidence
    • UFO's, Ancient Astronauts, Alien Artifacts: all fall under the heading of proposals that aliens are here now (and they call themselves Republicans) or have been here in the recent past. Problem: evidence for aliens is non-existent.
  • They Are Us
    • Humans are the descendents of ancient alien civilizations. Problem: where are the original aliens? Where are all the other alien civilizations
  • Zoo/Interdict Scenario
    • The aliens are here, and they are keeping us in a well designed zoo (cut off from all contact) or there is an interdiction treaty to prevent contact with young races (us). Problem: scenario lacks the ability to be tested. Takes only one ET to break embargo.

• They Exist But Have Not Yet Communicated
  • They Have Not Had Time To Reach Us
    • Speed of light slows communication levels, relativity makes space travel long. ET's message may not have reached us yet. Problem: Galaxy has been around for billions of years, even if one ET civilization formed a few million years before us, the Galaxy would be filled with Bracewell-von Neumann probes.
  • They Are Signaling, But We Do Not Know How To Listen
    • EM radiation, gravity waves, exotic particles are all examples of methods to signal. Problem: they may use methods we have not learned yet, but if there are many civilizations someone would use EM methods.
  • Berserkers
    • The Galaxy is filled with killer robots looking for signals. ET is keeping low. Problem: where are the berserkers coming after us?
  • They Have No Desire To Communicate
    • ET has no interest in conversing with lesser beings. Problem: with millions of possible civilizations, someone would have some curiosity.
  • They Develop Different Mathematics
    • Mathematics is the universal language. But humankind may have a unique system of mathematics that ET cannot understand. Problem: then where are their incomprehensible signals?
  • Catastrophes
    • Civilizations only have a limited lifetime, They are all dead.
      • Overpopulation
      • Nanobots -> Gray Goo Problem
      • Dangerous Particle Physics

• They Do Not Exist
  • We are the First, Life is New to the Galaxy
    • Life is new to the Galaxy, evolution takes time, we are the first civilization. Problem: Sun is average star, if other stars formed a million years ahead of us, then They would be a million years ahead of us in technology.
    

  • Planets With the Right Conditions are Rare
    • Planetary systems are rare
    • Habitable zones, proper distance from star for liquid water, are narrow
    • Galaxy is a dangerous place (gamma-ray bursters, asteroid impacts, etc)
    • Earth/Moon system is unique (large tides needed for molecular evolution)
  • Life Is Rare
    • Life's Genesis is rare
    • Intelligence/Tool-Making is rare
    • Language is unique to humans
    • Technology/Science is not inevitable

[LibWhacker]

I apologize if you thought my comment was directed at you. I knew it wasn't your claim and never meant to imply that it was. However, "Dr." Alexander's claim is silly and false. He needs an elementary course in logic.

[Tribune7]

A good rule of thumb is: Jimmy Carter is always wrong.

Carter believes in UFOs.