Another regime change indication – this time in solar data

watts Up With That? ^ | July 4, 2012 | Anthony Watts

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

OK,...Everyone have a great 4th.....

Meanwhile the Sun is up to some major changes it appears.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

From the comments:

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Dr. Lurtz says:

July 4, 2012 at 4:35 am

My Explanation:
a) Hydrogen burning occurs on the surface of the Sun’s Core.
b) Hot Sun [more fusion], Core expands making more H available from the Radiative Zone.
c) When the amount of H becomes less available [near the Core's surface] , the Core starts to shrink [less fusion] and the Sun becomes cooler.
d) Core shrinks until a new equilibrium is found [the Core is growing by fits and leaps -> it is the waste volume for burned H, that is, He].
e) Repeat the process.

Hot Sun [more fusion], massive inflowing H currents. Cool Sun [less fusion]. less inflowing H currents. Hot Sun, the H currents generate massive magnetic fields and produce Sun Spots. Cool Sun, the H currents are less, the magnetic field declines and, possibly, no Sun Spots.

During the Maunder Minimum, the Sun was cool for ~50 years. Faint traces of a 2×180 year cycle in the climate record [?? is there such a thing ??].

“Major regime transition” -> Sun cooling, core shrinking.

[Pollster1]

“If we are right, this could be the last solar maximum we’ll see for a few decades . . . That would affect everything from space exploration to Earth’s climate.”

Don't be silly. Al Gore assured me that the sun doesn't affect the earth's temperature, and he's a Nobel Prize winner - the same recognition that Obama himself earned - so he must be right.

[21twelve]

Regime change? I’ll gladly wear a few more sweaters if it means Obama is out of office!

On a more serious note - if one looks at the long-term cycles of the interglacial warm periods - we are past due (cycle wise) for another REAL ice age.

[justa-hairyape]

Some of us are going to see the start of the next mini-Ice Age. My guess is the reason the MSM is going hyperbolic about the warm temps in the US, is that they want to cover up the real fact that it is actually colder over much of the planet. The MSM is also falsely reporting warmth in the US right now. See this article below.

More on the 2012 US heat wave – not so hot if you look around at other locations

June actually ended up cooler than the normal in BOS (Boston) (-1.25F) and even NYC (Central Park -0.4F) and southeast despite the heat blast the end of the month (-2.0F in Jacksonville). Dulles despite the late month heat wave was SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL (-0.6F) while DCA nearer the White House and Congress was (+1.1F) and Atlanta despite the all time record was just +0.1F.

Here is reality, not MSM fantasy land.

[Marine_Uncle]

Think I'll bookmark this one. Perhaps the Independence Day celebrations of the future will be carried out in far different conditions then have been the case. Hope not, but facts surrounding that old Maunder Minimum period just doesn't go away.
And a happy 4th to you.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Thanks.

Just got off the phone with my daughter,....she is up in the High Desert just above the Cajon pass and it is Hot up there....) 100+

Rather cool and overcast down here ...75 at the moment.

[Salamander]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CM5578DtnuI

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Some genuine discussion going on with this article at WUWT.....

More from the comments:

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• sean2829 says:

  July 4, 2012 at 7:29 am

  A few months back on the SolarHam.net message board, a commenter asked Dr. Svalgaard if the weakening magnetic fields measured by Livingston and Penn is what caused the Dalton minimum. Leif’s answer was most interesting. He saw the Dalton min. as part of the natural 100 year ebb and flow of weak and strong cycles. He then went on to say that the Maunder minumum was a manifestation of what L&P are observing now. This is the strongest suggestion I’ve seen from Leif that we may be headed into more than just a Dalton like minimum. Previously, Dr Svalgaard has said the probability we are headed for a Dalton type minumum is high but we only had a low probability for a Maunder type episode. If Dr. Svalgaard reads this note I’d like to ask him three questions. First, has the probability between Dalton vs. Maunder type events changed in his opinion for the next few decades, second, what type of evidence does he have beyond the L&P effect to support that probability and third, will there any any peer reviewed publications in the near future to discuss where the sun might be headed?

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Some genuine discussion going on with this article at WUWT.....

More from the comments:

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• sean2829 says:

  July 4, 2012 at 7:29 am

  A few months back on the SolarHam.net message board, a commenter asked Dr. Svalgaard if the weakening magnetic fields measured by Livingston and Penn is what caused the Dalton minimum. Leif’s answer was most interesting. He saw the Dalton min. as part of the natural 100 year ebb and flow of weak and strong cycles. He then went on to say that the Maunder minumum was a manifestation of what L&P are observing now. This is the strongest suggestion I’ve seen from Leif that we may be headed into more than just a Dalton like minimum. Previously, Dr Svalgaard has said the probability we are headed for a Dalton type minumum is high but we only had a low probability for a Maunder type episode. If Dr. Svalgaard reads this note I’d like to ask him three questions. First, has the probability between Dalton vs. Maunder type events changed in his opinion for the next few decades, second, what type of evidence does he have beyond the L&P effect to support that probability and third, will there any any peer reviewed publications in the near future to discuss where the sun might be headed?

[Strategerist]

And of course the sunspot index is very high right now, and the sun is quite active.

Article is from today but surreally ignores solar data since 2008....

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

More:

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Leif Svalgaard says:

July 4, 2012 at 7:50 am

sean2829 says:
July 4, 2012 at 7:29 am
three questions. First, has the probability between Dalton vs. Maunder type events changed in his opinion for the next few decades, second, what type of evidence does he have beyond the L&P effect to support that probability and third, will there any any peer reviewed publications in the near future to discuss where the sun might be headed?
As the low solar activity predicted by us has come to pass, a small cottage industry [with several 'peer reviewed' papers - for what they are worth] has sprung up about a possible coming Maunder minimum. There is little doubt that at some time in the future a new Grand minimum will be coming our way. Whether it will happen real soon is anybody’s guess. At a recent international workshop that I convened this question was central. You can find most of the discussion chronicled in the presentations here: http://ssnworkshop.wikia.com/wiki/1st_ISSI_Workshop
The contribution by Lockwood has more references.

[Marine_Uncle]

Thanks E. I'll open up the WUWT web site for a closer view.
Currently average temp computed for Philly, 94F. Tomorrow projection 97, then next day cooling off a bit to low mid 90's. Sort of on the warm side. :)

[Chode]

insturmental from the movie of the same name Sunshine...

[justa-hairyape]

Solar Activity is quantified a number of ways. If you look at Magnetic Index, it has been historically low since the last minimum. If you look at sunspot numbers, this current maximum has been lower compared to the previous 3-4 cycles.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Calculating the number of sunspots is such a crude numeric mrasuremebt, ....but how else can one made guesstimates about what the Sun is doing?

[justa-hairyape]

Solar Wind Speed, Magnetic Field Strength and UV Output can also be used. And you are correct that sunspot numbers are a very crude way to determine solar activity. Made even more inaccurate with the fact that they are counting more sunspots in modern times due to enhanced optics. If you look at some sunspot charts for the people who try to bias for the modern extra sensitive measurements, this has been a very weak solar maximum. In fact one of the weakest in modern times.

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks Ernest.

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[gleeaikin]

They are predicting 103 on Saturday for my mid Atlantic location. Seems like global cooling is on vacation. Meanwhile I have just started the Atkins Diet, Induction Phase, so I can wear my bikini at the beach soon. It worked before, but I got careless. Wish me luck.