Until we start comparing apples to apples, we will get this continuing disparity on projections and the severity of the virus. The more data we acquire from testing, the clearer the picture will become.
Posted on 03/26/2020 7:02:46 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Until we start comparing apples to apples, we will get this continuing disparity on projections and the severity of the virus. The more data we acquire from testing, the clearer the picture will become.
However, this might be the very first instance of an ad hoc centralized bio-command attempting to assess/evaluate enemy strength/capabilities as a bio-attack is actually occurring.
It's demonstrating to each & everyone that traditional epidemiology methods are simply inadequate to manage new, radically altered circumstances. Not their fault - it's like blaming a vet for not being able to maintain an airplane.
What we have is proof that some kind of militarized CDC is going to be necessary going forward, and that measurement methods & counter techniques are going to have to be essentially 'invented' in order to provide reliable information/action to a command & control organization on a real-time basis.
Yup. When Trump started talking about re-opening the country he had to be receiving data which showed where we were headed.
I was definitely sick, but never bed ridden nor in need of being hospitalized despite being 70. My wife, daughter and grandson were exposed but never developed symptoms. The ER doctor told me they had seen a lot of this virus that definitely was not influenza. I’m convinced it may well have been COVID-19
The hoax slowly unravels.
It will be interesting to see what the final numbers are. A LOT depends on the denominator. (US numbers)Bring Out Your DeadCompleted cases (dead+recovered) = 62.8% dead
Lancet (dead 14 days ago+recovered)= 7.05% dead
Total cases = 1.5% dead
Population = 0.000317% dead
Entire known universe population = 0.0000136% deadThe Lancet algorithm is probably the most accurate, it better accounts for the shorter time to die than recover.
Don't be too alarmed by the 7.05%, it is a small data set, the world rate has been around 4% since Late February.
Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.
The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.
The false positive rate was 100%.
At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.
*sigh* Such is life, and death...
If a quarantine saves just one child's or one old fart’s life, it's worth it.
Many thanks for y’all’s analysis!
No. Humans recognized and understood the benefits of quarantine and cordon sanitaire many centuries ago. We learned how to stop it and prevent its spread. We’ve gotten a lot better at that recently, too.
Interesting. I will tweet this with attribution.
Then antibiotics happened, and we got complacent, and forgot.
We're relearning fast!
We’ve gotten a lot better at that recently, too.
And as you say, improving on the old knowledge!
The number of states that have 12 or fewer deaths from the virus is 36. We need a policy of differentiation, not one size fits all.
It's like a broad pitched battle - Waterloo? "The damn-nearest run thing you ever saw in your life".
Excellent post!
A heavily bureaucratized CDC simply isn’t - can’t be - up to this sort of black swan epidemic. Most of the time, it excels at routine public heath issues.
There are no cast in concrete procedures for extraordinary events, nor can they be.
Militaries are pretty good at adapting most of the time. It only took some 20 million deaths and 4 years or so to figure out just throwing more troops into trenches wasn’t working...
It’s a good dry run for a real bio attack.
“Tiger claws” — good chinese medicine.
?
How lucky are we if we just miss impact? (Actually, the economic/social effect was a direct hit.) It's like those educational movies "Scared Straight". We literally experienced how one potential future could unfold. Now we have a fire lit under our collective ass. "Never again", right?
Hey, on that note, I'm tentatively calling it. I'm not one to make bold claims; I'm actually pretty chickenshit, hiding behind lots of qualifiers. But Italy just reported their 35th day from the first CV fatality (as of 3/26), and the pattern is starting to look really flat. To get the line moving upward again at this point would take monster numbers. Not saying it couldn't happen, but it's beginning to look highly unlikely.
CV Mortality
Italy vs US (net NY)
Italy 35 days actual
US 26 days actual, 27-35 projected
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