Posted on 04/17/2010 11:37:12 AM PDT by Brices Crossroads
Sarah Palin has intensity from her supporters in bucket loads. What she needs is organization. So far, she hasn't really made any attempt to set up any organisation at the states leevl, that is capable of running a preesindential run.
Romney and Pawlenty are very much ahead of her in that department. Romney is nothing if efficient. If Sarah Palin really wants to run, she is going to have to start getting her own organization up going by the start of 2011.
” Money, while not totally unimportant, is much less so”
I think Sarah Palin is going to raise a lot of money if she decides to run. No one gets the crowds fired up like she does.
I agree with you. Her sense of duty is far too strong for her to walk away from the country that needs her. ALthough I do not know for sure, I wold be absolutely astonished (and disappointed) if she chose not to run.
Her detractors sure can’t stop her!
She’s bested every damn one of them and last night on Kentucky, she laid to rest the media claim that women don’t like her.
AlB posted a pic that I will find if he doesn’t post it here.
While I'm still not sure of just how indicative her facebook numbers are as a measure of the intensity of her support, I agree with you on the crowds she's drawing in a political off year. They really are amazing.
I'm also encouraged by what looks like a drop in the intensity of her unfavorability numbers. I'm no fan of PPP because of their demonstrated manipulation (to me, at least) of their sample methods to achieve a certain result. Their recent poll this past week, however, had an interesting observation:
For instance among voters who disapprove of Obama but also have an unfavorable opinion of Sarah Palin, she leads him by 22 points in a head to head contest. That wasn't necessarily the case in previous months.As for what this means in a primary battle, it could mean that Republicans and potential Republican voters who have had questions about her are already beginning to take another look. We shall see.
One thing you gotta love about Sarah, she’ll never do what the polls tell her to do. Ooooooh, Sarahcuda.
“Sarah Palin has intensity from her supporters in bucket loads. What she needs is organization. So far, she hasn’t really made any attempt to set up any organisation at the states leevl, that is capable of running a preesindential run.
Romney and Pawlenty are very much ahead of her in that department.”
Joe, Let me tell you. These “professional” organizations are smoke and mirrors. THey are staffed by littel wannabes, who collect nice checks and don’t do anytihing. Romney was supposed to have had such a great organzation in 2008 and he won only THREE primaries, Massachusetts, Utah and Michigan, his three home states.
Her facebook network is the a fine grassroots group, as it is. She can communicate with them and coordinate fundraising and GOTV. She will not need to do anything other than announce and volunteers will flock to her banner.
Believe me, she is sitting pretty right now. Far, far ahead of the others.
Thank you, Al B., and if ya want to see grassroots workers for Sarah, “you betcha” she will have WOMEN!
“For instance among voters who disapprove of Obama but also have an unfavorable opinion of Sarah Palin, she leads him by 22 points in a head to head contest. That wasn’t necessarily the case in previous months.”
Thanks for that factoid, Al. For me as well, delving into the crosstabs of a PPP poll is like sifting for the truth in a 1957 Pravda article.
Wow, Al! That is a giant crowd. Thanks for posting the pic.
I think the PPP and Rasmussen polls are right actually. Romeny and Huckabee are running ahead of Sarah Palin right now, thought not by much. All 3 of them are polling pretty close to 0bama(apart from the PPP poll this week which had Huckabee and Romney beating 0bama, with Sarah Palin just 2 points behind 0bama). The polls are too consistent for them to be wrong, so bottom line: Romney/Huckabee are ahead of Sarah Palin in the polls right now.
But then this is 2010, and the primaries and the elections are in 2012. Sarah Palin will have to do some work to convince the independents(and some Republicans) that she really is very good presidential material. In her last two speeches(SRLC and Boston), I noticed she is putting a lot of strong policy stuff in her speech. That's a step in the right direction. She should just continue giving more policy speeches, write more policy OP-Eds in the Wall Street Journal, WaPo, USA Today etc, and soon, come out with a book on what her policy positions are, with plenty of meaty stuff in it.
Also, much as I hate them, she is going to have to start appearing on some of these MSM TV outlets to do interviews, starting with the least loony left ones(all of them are bad, but some are not as evil as the others). she could start off with an interview that is focused on energy issues(on which she is an expert) for example.
Onyx,
That picture says it better than my entire post. I think she is approaching invincibility.
Your post is great! That pic makes my heart sing! ALL women for Sarah! Screw the lying media. Look at the number of women who turned out to see Sarah and Michele in Minnesota!!! Women of all ages, just like in Kentucky.
I’d feel better about her chances if Republicans were the only ones voting in the Primaries. But for the Dems, we’d have had somebody other than McQueeg in ‘08.
You can't run a presidential campaign on just Facebook membership numbers. It takes a LOT of work, organization etc to set things up, create TV ads, run the ads, set up TV/newspaper interviews, research the opposition, prepare you for debates, book campaign venues, get police permits, set up literally hundreds of campaign stops in just a year, etc etc.
It doesn't just happen spontaneously. You need a very well organized, very strong outfit to pull it all together.
You forgot to mention the influence SarahPAC has with its own e-mail list. Also, don’t forget all the private meet and greets Sarah has. We know of some of them but you can bet there are alot of them you don’t know about.
“I think the PPP and Rasmussen polls are right actually. Romeny and Huckabee are running ahead of Sarah Palin right now, thought not by much.”
I don’t think they are right. It is 22 months until the primaries. PPP is a total Dem operation . And Rasmussen would probably admit that his poll is essentially worthless at this stage as well.
The problem is that Huckabee will not be able to hold onto his vote when she announces. She attracts social conservatives, and they will coalesce around her, as fiscal cons already have. Huckabee’s support is not committed.
His big spending in Arkansas and his 1000 pardons are going to be hung around his neck. He has nowhere to go but down.
Same with Romney. In a one on one race with either, she would clobber them. You notice that PPP and Rasmussen never poll it one on One. That is because they know what they will get.
They are not ahead of her, and I don’t really care what the polls say. If the election were held tomorrow, she would slaughter both of them. When it is held in early 2012, the result will be the same. She is far too good a candidate (and the first viable conservative in a quarter Century) and she is not going to lose to these two forgettables.
I have worked on may Presidential campigns both general election and primary and I can tell you from an insider’s vantage point that the kinds of things you mention-Organization and staffing- are vastly overrated. Rudy had a great organization, just no votes. Same with ROmney.
Reagan was top heavy with organization before the Iowa Caucuses in 1980. Almost lost it. Cut his staff dramatically and went on to win easily. Same in 1976. Reagan started winning in NC after he had just about run out of money.
The internet is the new organization.
Bears repeating. Craig Shirley documents all this, BTW, in his book.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.