'Japan cannot compete with a united Korea' [Interview with Jim Rogers]

The Korea Times ^ | June 27, 2018 | Kim Jae-kyoung

[2ndDivisionVet]

Did the East German (DDR) leader get to be the German chancellor?

[Cronos]

In the short-term NO. In the long-term MAYBE

In the short-term, a number of "reunification scenarios":

1. Under Kim: then heck no, South korea's GDP plummets to sub-saharan levels and Japan doesn't need to worry about the Korean economy for another century
2. There is reunification under some non-Kim, non-democratic regime - then the united korea is still poor but not as bad as #1 but still poor, probably at the level of Egypt for another century
3. assuming the two Koreas get united in 2020 under a South Korean regime, then we have the example of how long it took Germany to reunite. Remember that East germany was in a far better position economically and socially compared to North Korea. It still took Germany 15 years to recover and arguably it hasn't completely recovered.
   
   in the case of the koreas it would take at least double the time (1 to 2 generations) - I would rather say it would take 40 to 50 years to get back on track.
   
   By then the average age would be slightly older than Japan.

So,. in no scenario does Japan need to be afraid of a reunited Korea in my humble opinion

[Cronos]

you can't compare Dubai to North Korea

Dubai had a tiny population - its "population" today is 80% expatriates.

It is built on cheap labor imported from South Asia merged with expensive Western knowledge - there's no way that could be duplicated in Nork

The norks are underdeveloped and famished due to long famines. They will need a generation to get over this malnutrition.

[StoneWall Brigade]

We’re not talking about German reunification that’s apples and oranges compared to this we are talking about a nation who is cultic with its leadership and its own idea of communism and socialism the Kim dynasty has long wanted to rule a United Korea under their rule and they’re not going to give that up.

[mindburglar]

The difference is North and South Korea have been separated for 70 years. The average IQ of the south is 10-15 points higher. The average height is 4 inches shorter in the North.

The Germanys were separated for roughly half that and East Germany was the largest economy in eastern Europe. That took 20 years to fully integrate.

The reunification of the Koreas will take considerably longer.

[cba123]

I don’t know.

I think it may in fact, go quite the opposite. Breathtakingly fast.

It all depends on how Kim plays this. But I think he is about to see a DRAMATIC turnaround in North Korea.

Trump is completely on this side, with his eyes wide open. If (and this is a big if) Kim is really going to de-nuke.

But if he is really going to, hold your horses everyone...

[Tax-chick]

By then the average age would be slightly older than Japan.

I wondered if anyone would mention demographics. South Korea's birthrate is 1.24 ... "lowest-low." North Korea's is reported as 1.97, but why should we believe that? It's a cannibal dictatorship.

Even if the 1.97 were accurate, that's basically no future workers in a unified Korea, just a lot of old people living alone, if the government decides to let them live.

[Jimmy Valentine]

Koreans and Japanese have hated each other since time immemorial. How do they get round that.

[mindburglar]

Agreed. It’s moving at a breathtaking pace.

The only thing is it will be very difficult to bring the Norks up to the first world level of the South. They are a brutalized people. Much moreso than the East Germans.

There will be bitterness on each side once the dust settles. Integration and cooperation will come slowly.

Anyway, better now than later.

[SauronOfMordor]

A lot will depend on the condition of the NK people. If they are educated and smart, things will go quickly. If they are illiterate and mentally stunted from malnutrition, then NK reunification will NOT go well.

[LumberJack53213]

South Korean appliances are top notch in my book(LG, Samsung), but their cars are horrid, Toyota is still number one for me.

[jdsteel]

The statement that Japan cannot compete with a united Korea because of cheaper labor costs is ludicrous. There are plenty of other countries right now, say Vietnam for example, that have cheaper labor than Japan. Japan’s problems are of Japans making.

[Eric in the Ozarks]

More like 50 years.
The two Koreas barely speak the same language.

[RinaseaofDs]

I wonder if England and France felt the same way about the reunification of Germany?

I do remember that the reunification arguments, the expense, the retardation of the E. Germans, etc - nothing came close to the motivation of families long separated to be brought back together.

I think it will be the same for Korea.

Japan has to sort itself first. It’s not. Abe’s trying.

[Gay State Conservative]

Germany still hasn’t completely recovered from unification and East Germany was 50 times as prosperous as North Korea is today.A united Korea might be an economic powerhouse in 25 years but until then they’ll rue the day that unification began.

[BeauBo]

Maybe Jim Rogers is there (Korea - North and South) in coordination with the Trump Administration, fleshing out details.