Posted on 03/12/2023 6:17:24 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Jason Jay Smart
@officejjsmart
WAGNER DYING-OUT
A UA General says the number of “Wagnerites,” before, was about 45,000.
Now there are only about 7,000 left!
Prigozhin, boss of Wagner, whines constantly that the situation in Bakhmut is difficult and blames Min of Defense Shoigu.
This is a Wagner cemetery.
https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1634997627036246016?cxt=HHwWgIDRgbzr1rAtAAAA
Putin dies and Russia falls into civil War and pulls out of Ukraine! Zelenskyy marches on Sochi and wins Russian lands and all Crimea (To become a US Naval base). China seizes all of Siberia and the Russian Pacific Fleet. Russian Nukes flatten China before Zelenskyys and Polands army reaches Moscow. Warsaw flattened, London, Paris and Rome, no more. New York, Boston, Washington Norfolk gone. Before President of Russia shots himself, he flattens all Ukraine with a Tsar Bomb. Millions, upon Millions die—FOR WHAT>?
That’ll teach those Ruzzkies to mess with God’s house! Any info on the number of people killed and the amount and kind of war materiel destroyed?
Jehovah’s Witnesses are not Christians, it is a different religion, a cult.
Perhaps the Ukrainians will conduct a small local counter-offensive around Bakhmut, just to open a route and cover the retreat of their garrison there, as opposed to the more Strategic counter-offensive anticipated after Mud Season.
@wartranslated
This is somewhat of a long post by RSOTM channel admin (anonymous senior figure in Wagner) essentially saying Ukraine is preparing for a strike, yes, but likely along the whole frontline, citing evidence about spotted movements of equipment and troops. Most interesting parts are highlighted in red.
He says evidence all points to the accumulation of UA forces not only in the south but also in the north, in the Kharkiv region. Meaning it may take a truly large-scale form.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1635333730393792538
Crybar concerned, too.
Dva_majors write that the AFU have intensified preparations for the offensive announced earlier.
They say the AFU are planning a counteroffensive after the spring thaw, most likely in Zaporizhia with a simultaneous landing across the Dnieper in Kherson Region.
Western handlers are waiting for Kyiv to show results.
The most appropriate option from a political and strategic point of view is a strike in the Zaporizhia direction in order to cut the land route to Crimea and access the Sea of Azov.
Still, a diversionary strike is needed. One option is a counter-offensive on Bakhmut. New units with Western-made armored vehicles are gathering there. However, this plan will require huge resources, and the consequences of failure will be catastrophic.
If the offensive enters an active phase, we expect a simultaneous landing of troops along the entire length of the Dnieper from the Kinburn Peninsula to Vasylivka. In addition, a sharp increase in tactical aviation and drone flights is possible.
https://twitter.com/rybar_en/status/1635332390406225920
“The most appropriate option from a political and strategic point of view is a strike in the Zaporizhia direction in order to cut the land route to Crimea and access the Sea of Azov.
Still, a diversionary strike is needed.”
Starobilsk would be fun. That would screw up Russian logistics.
And please, with lots of deep strike, like never before. Blow every bridge from Russia into the Ukraine, cut every rail link.
“This (Bakhmut) is a Wagner cemetery.”
Send more Artillery!
“Prigozhin, boss of Wagner, whines constantly that the situation in Bakhmut is difficult and blames Min of Defense Shoigu.
This is a Wagner cemetery.”
ISW 12 March 2023:
“The Russian military leadership may be trying to expend Wagner forces – and Prigozhin’s influence – in Bakhmut.
Russian forces’ rate of advance in Bakhmut slowed following the Ukrainian withdrawal from eastern Bakhmut around March 7. ISW assessed on March 6 that Wagner had to commit its elite forces to maintain offensive momentum in Bakhmut but may be running out of these forces during direct assaults on eastern, southern, and northern parts of Bakhmut. Geolocated footage published on February 18 showed 43 buses with Wagner mercenaries moving from Crimea via Melitopol possibly to reinforce positions in Bakhmut. Prigozhin complained on March 5 and 6 that Wagner needed additional reinforcements, and Ukrainian military officials observed that Russian forces were suffering a seven-to-one casualty ratio compared to Ukrainian forces.
Prigozhin likely anticipated that Ukrainian forces would entirely withdraw from Bakhmut out of fear of imminent encirclement and hoped that his commitment of Wagner’s elite forces would be sufficient to generate that effect. Prigozhin even offered Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to allow Ukrainian forces to withdraw from Bakhmut in two days on March 3. Limited information about the Prigozhin’s pleas likely indicates that the Russian military command is intent on expending Wagner forces within the city. Spokesperson of the Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Serhiy Cherevaty also noted on March 11 that Ukrainian forces may be able to severely degrade Wagner and have already thinned out Wagner’s second prisoner formation over the winter. Ukrainian servicemen noted in a social media video from March 12 that they are holding positions in Bakhmut waiting for Russians to “shoot each other.” Russian military leadership may be allowing the Wagner Group to take high casualties in Bakhmut to simultaneously erode Prigozhin’s leverage while capturing the city at the expense of Wagner troops.
The Russian military leadership is likely attempting to avenge itself on Prigozhin for a conflict that he initiated in May 2022.”
...”Putin and the Russian MoD may use Prigozhin as a scapegoat for the costly drive on Bakhmut once the offensive culminates. ISW assessed on February 5 that Putin relies on a group of scapegoats to publicly take risks in his place and shoulder the blame for Russian military failures and unpopular policies.”
“Prigozhin is unlikely to regain Putin’s favor to the same extent as he had between May and October 2022. Unnamed Kremlin officials stated that Putin has been increasingly tightening his inner circle and is unlikely to offer the benefits Prigozhin once had regardless of the severity of the Russian military failures on the frontlines... Putin has likely not decided yet whether he will spare Prigozhin, and Wagner’s fate likely depends on Prigozhin’s ability to convince the Kremlin of his loyalty.”
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