Preview Of Jackson Hole Fed Conference! Will The Fed Continue To Strangle The Economy In Their Zeal To Cool Inflation To 2%? (One Word, YES!)

Confounded Interest ^ | 08/20/2023 | Anthony B. Sanders

[TomGuy]

all these whiny little twits who complain about 7% need to look at some history.

I post these numbers occasionally for some perspective:

Too many have gotten too used to cheap money of the last 15 years.

Sounds ominous, except that a 5%-6% interest/mortgage rate was historically considered 'the norm' going into the Carter years and 8%-10% was 'the norm' until the GWB real estate crisis that shrank interest/mortgage rates to historically low levels.

1920-34 near 6% mortgage average¹
1935-45 just under 4.5% mortgage average¹
1960 - 5.1% mortgage average²
1971 - 7.3% mortgage average¹
1980 - 13.7% mortgage average²
1981 - 16.6% to 18.45% mortgage average²
1990 - 10.1% mortgage average²
2000 - 8.1% mortgage average²
2010 - 4.7% mortgage average²
2020 - 3.1% mortgage average²

7.74% is the long term average³

sources:

¹Mortgage Rate History: Check Out These Charts from the Early 1900s

²Here's how much home prices have risen since 1950

³Kiplinger: The Magic Mortgage Rate Number to Tip the Housing Market

[1of10]

good info ... great post.

History didn't start the day these young whipper snappers got dropped on their heads.
....
and let me say this too ... just because today looks a lot like yesterday, it doesn't mean tomorrow will look like today.

[CFW]

“and let me say this too ... just because today looks a lot like yesterday, it doesn’t mean tomorrow will look like today.”

---

Normalcy bias is a real thing. Too many people believe that since things have always been, then those things will always be. People believe that when you flip on the light switch then the light will come on. People believe that when they stop at the gas station, gas will be available. Young people neither read nor learn from history. Those things we have now can immediately disappear (such as equal justice for all) overnight or in the blink of an eye.

[1of10]

“Normalcy bias”

That’s the term I was looking for ...
I am in grouchy old man mode today ....

so .......... get off my lawn

[CFW]

“so .......... get off my lawn”

---

YOU get off my lawn! I just mowed the grass!

[minnesota_bound]

#1 That is true.

I am guessing it will be a good monday for nvidia and amd.
My AMD back in May rose over $46 in that month to about 130 and since then has gone down. Stayed below 120 but would go up and down to 107 and back up to about 120. This past 10 days however it fell to about 102. It would go until the Fed would make an announcement that they will raise the interest rates again and again.

NVIDIA is at 435.00 and +2.01 (+0.46%) After hours: 7:59PM EDT
I own AMD which was up on a friday.
105.45 +1.01 (+0.97%)
At close: August 18 04:00PM EDT
105.60 +0.15 (+0.14%)
After hours: 7:59PM EDT

[central_va]

At this point (way late) unless you want runaway inflation, higher rates are a must....there’s no best choice, no easy solution.

You don't have derail the economy with sky high interst rates to get inflation to go down. This thread is ridiculous.

[wardamneagle]

What goes up must .....you know the thing ! lol

FOMC Meeting Date Rate Change (bps)

July 26, 2023 +25 5.25% to 5.50%
May 3, 2023 +25 5.00% to 5.25%
March 22, 2023 +25 4.75% to 5.00%
Feb 1, 2023 +25 4.50% to 4.75%
Dec 14, 2022 +50 4.25% to 4.50%
Nov 2, 2022 +75 3.75% to 4.00%
Sept 21, 2022 +75 3.00% to 3.25%
July 27, 2022 +75 2.25% to 2.50%
June 16, 2022 +75 1.50% to 1.75%
May 5, 2022 +50 0.75% to 1.00%
March 17, 2022 +25 0.25% to 0.50%