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The Worst-Case Estimate for U.S. Coronavirus Deaths
New York Times ^ | March 13, 2020 | Sheri Fink

Posted on 03/13/2020 7:15:22 AM PDT by daniel1212

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To: babble-on

The Test Kit does not tell you if you have the Virus.

It has to be sent to a Testing Location for analysis of the Sample. It is not the same as a Pregnancy Test.

There is a Test Kit that shows if there are Antibodies fighting an Infection, but it does not specify what that infection might be. That Test also has a very high likelihood of showing a False Positive for a Viral Infection.

I will bet a dollar to a donut that the “average” person believes they can get a Test that immediately tells them if they are infected with Coronavirus.

This whole Zombie Apocalypse is by far the biggest bunch of malarkey that has come down the pike in a long time. I keep expecting Brad Pitt to have a Press Conference wearing a Lab Coat.


101 posted on 03/13/2020 9:37:39 AM PDT by Kickass Conservative (Kill a Commie for your Mommy.)
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To: polymuser
If this ends up as just a bit worse than “normal” flu, we MUST hold the MSM directly responsible for the massive economic losses from their “crying wolf” (as they do with so many issues - eco/climate, storms, hate crimes, etc.). Massive lawsuits. End the Enemedia. No mercy.

Not much of a chance of that. It seems court cases have shown the media can print much of anything as opinion or as news from sources, however spinned, aside from outright libel.

102 posted on 03/13/2020 9:52:41 AM PDT by daniel1212 ( Trust the risen Lord Jesus to save you as a damned and destitute sinner + be baptized + follow Him)
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To: daniel1212

Forget legal suits. Do civil class actions based on work interruption losses, shipping losses, profit losses and retirement savings losses, to start. Crowd fund the lawyers.


103 posted on 03/13/2020 9:58:11 AM PDT by polymuser (It's discouraging to think how many people are shocked by honesty and so few by deceit. Noel Coward)
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To: Leep
Neither. Quarantine if it is warranted. Killing America's economy by shutting down large events..and sending large swaths of people from work..not sure that is the best idea.

Agree but what I was referring to is that the liberals demand open borders, even though that results in deaths, while demanding quarantine due to the danger of deaths. If this was a virus that only affected a certain race that voted Democrat, then any avoidance would be called racist.

104 posted on 03/13/2020 9:58:36 AM PDT by daniel1212 ( Trust the risen Lord Jesus to save you as a damned and destitute sinner + be baptized + follow Him)
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To: babble-on

Re: Given there’s so few test kits available

I just read on another thread that COVID tests cost more than $1,300 each!

Can anybody else confirm that?


105 posted on 03/13/2020 10:05:49 AM PDT by zeestephen
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To: daniel1212

Again you are the one playing ifs. You throw out all the ifs that lighten the outcome when you do a worst case scenario.. hence the name “worst case”

Worst Case scenarios assume every possibility you can think of is bad.. hence the name. And if you worst case this disease with 20 million infected in a brief time you get 2-3 million deaths.


106 posted on 03/13/2020 10:13:13 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: daniel1212

IOW It’s the usual leftist double standard hypocrisy flipsy flopsy.
What do they have to lose..they rarely face any consequences.


107 posted on 03/13/2020 10:15:56 AM PDT by Leep (Everyday is Trump Day!)
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To: zeestephen

“Can anybody else confirm that?”

I can confirm that anything the government has a hand in the cost will be at least 100 times what a non-government entity would cost. So, running it through my Super Bat Computer..the real cost is approximately [beep boop beep..ding!].. $13


108 posted on 03/13/2020 10:20:39 AM PDT by Leep (Everyday is Trump Day!)
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To: Autonomous User

‘“Worst case” outcomes will be promoted by the media as
“Most Likely Case”. To feed the mass hysteria.’

Agreed. This cleverly-worded NYT story, quoted & disguised as a blog post, is the main screeching headline on Drudge.
But if you read it carefully, its clear *intent* is to stoke hysteria. Every statement in it is “maybe this, or maybe not.”
Does not say anything definitively, but most won’t read beyond headline.


109 posted on 03/13/2020 10:27:29 AM PDT by mumblypeg
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To: HamiltonJay
Again you are the one playing ifs. You throw out all the ifs that lighten the outcome when you do a worst case scenario.. hence the name “worst case” Worst Case scenarios assume every possibility you can think of is bad.. hence the name. And if you worst case this disease with 20 million infected in a brief time you get 2-3 million deaths.

Well them we will just watch and pray, and see how this all turns out. I agree that a lot of fear and misinformation being repeated and spread has been the case.

110 posted on 03/13/2020 10:36:42 AM PDT by daniel1212 ( Trust the risen Lord Jesus to save you as a damned and destitute sinner + be baptized + follow Him)
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To: mumblypeg

“Agreed. This cleverly-worded NYT story, quoted & disguised as a blog post, is the main screeching headline on Drudge.
But if you read it carefully, its clear *intent* is to stoke hysteria. Every statement in it is “maybe this, or maybe not.”
Does not say anything definitively, but most won’t read beyond headline.”


Whatever feeds the hysteria of the low informed masses.


111 posted on 03/13/2020 10:42:03 AM PDT by Autonomous User (During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act.)
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To: daniel1212

Don’t get me wrong, I am not remotely saying worst case will happen, I am just pointing out that I keep seeing articles talking about “beds” being the variable that restricts care, and for severe cases of this (or any respiratory disease for that matter) Beds are not the most restricted resource.. which is why I posted my original post..

The limiting resource for severe cases is not beds, While in a worst case scenario you certainly can wind up with no beds, what you will run out of long before beds are ventilators/respirators. There are only about 100k of them in the US total... So while there maybe 750,000 or 1 Million or whatever the number is of beds, if you have a severe case, and need assistance with your breathing to get past the worst of the infection... You could indeed have a hospital bed, but no access to a ventilator/respirator, so you can asphyxiate to death in a hospital bed.

I don’t think we are looking at the “worst case” situation, and even in the worst case, the numbers are most people are going to get through it without any sort of need for emergent care. However, for those who will need it, a LOT of them would likely die.

Right now the goal is to “flatten the curve”, so we don’t end up overwhelming the system and winding up with a lot more deaths than we would have otherwise.

This is what is behind most of the cancellations, and work from home, and other things being done.. Its not that most people who get this virus will get severely ill, but if too people get infected too quickly the system gets overwhelmed and you wind up with far more chaos and death.

Again, most people who get this will be fine, and likely won’t need more than OTC drugs (if that) to treat the symptoms, so its not an end of days thing where you have high transmission rates and high mortality rates. Some groups have far higher mortality rates than others from this, the elderly which are always more at risk for instance... but its not the end of days, society is going to collapse, type of situation that alot of the paranoia and media induced hysteria is selling.

Odds are are far more in your favor of not getting it, or if you do having a mild case... and even if you have a severe case, as long as you can get the care you need odds are still in your favor of surviving over expiring... However if you are unable to get adequate care and have a severe case, the odds shift .. and that’s what they are trying to do at this point just make sure the system isn’t overwhelmed so that those who do need care can get it.


112 posted on 03/13/2020 11:18:02 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: HamiltonJay

As one that, by the grace of God(!), has only been to a doctor once (which was just for a physical) since bout 1982, and during that time has recovered from a lower hernia, and severe sickness, concussion, dislocated shoulder, etc., then I admit a bias and I should not expect all to realize the grace I have, and need to have more sympathy for those who are sick (whom i wish I could heal), plus I do not like paranoia. Got the Flu 3 weeks ago but just came in from playing a little football and soccer, thanking God i could do do.


113 posted on 03/13/2020 2:45:22 PM PDT by daniel1212 ( Trust the risen Lord Jesus to save you as a damned and destitute sinner + be baptized + follow Him)
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To: Texas Eagle

I’ll burn a few old tractor tires every day for a couple weeks . That should help...no?


114 posted on 03/14/2020 7:44:26 PM PDT by hal ogen (First Amendment or Reeducation Camp???)
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To: hal ogen

The worse case scenario is that we all die (after months of slow suffering), all life forms similarly die and the sun supernovas...then, the universe collapses into a singularity . OH, the huge manatee!!!!!


115 posted on 03/14/2020 7:49:18 PM PDT by hal ogen (First Amendment or Reeducation Camp???)
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To: hal ogen

The worse case scenario is that we all die (after months of slow suffering), all life forms similarly die and the sun supernovas...then, the universe collapses into a singularity . OH, the huge manatee!!!!!


116 posted on 03/14/2020 7:49:18 PM PDT by hal ogen (First Amendment or Reeducation Camp???)
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To: hal ogen

The worse case scenario is that we all die (after months of slow suffering), all life forms similarly die and the sun supernovas...then, the universe collapses into a singularity . OH, the huge manatee!!!!!


117 posted on 03/14/2020 7:49:20 PM PDT by hal ogen (First Amendment or Reeducation Camp???)
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To: jerod
So essentially less than 1% of the population in a ‘worse’ case scenario... So... What’s all the fuss about? A million sounds like a lot... Guess what? That’s how many die from Malaria each and every year. Sanity needs to prevail in this hyped up hysterical crises. The scaremongers need to be squelched and the sane people need to come to our rescue. This is a chance for the Donald to prove that he’s above the nonsense of the swamp. Tell America to get on with it’s business and ignore the foolishness. Oh yes... And people will die but they already do though on a very regular basis, so stop the hysterics.

Meaning in answer to my question, this is not to be treated like the Spanish flu of 1918, esp. under the conditions then. But take no measures?

118 posted on 03/16/2020 12:40:21 PM PDT by daniel1212 ( Trust the risen Lord Jesus to save you as a damned and destitute sinner + be baptized + follow Him)
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To: daniel1212

Take reasonable measures... Ramp up the manufacture of Ventilators, work on a vaccines, ask retired medical professionals to return to work, etc., etc.

I live in a small province in Canada... We have 2 confirmed cases, 5 presumptive cases and about 750,000 people in total. All of the cases are related to returning travelers... Today they shut down government offices, barred gatherings of 150 people, closed bars, etc. etc.... None of these measures is necessary and our politicians are panicking.

We need leaders... Today we have no Churchill’s, no Reagan’s, no Thatcher’s or Pope John Paul’s to help us.

Unfortunately, those nattering nabobs of negativism that Nixon bemoaned... They’re now running the show from their newsrooms and the politicians are following them off the cliff like a bunch of lemmings.


119 posted on 03/16/2020 11:50:59 PM PDT by jerod (Nazi's were essentially Socialist in Hugo Boss uniforms... Get over it!)
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