Corona virus daily thread #36

[mrsmith]

You’re on yesterday’s thread.

[amorphous]

Wow, thread #37, I’m having trouble keeping up...will post the graph over there too. :)

[amorphous]

Every country on the graph below is looking better tonight.

Daily percentage of new Corona virus deaths to previous day's total by country. 25% = total deaths double every 3 days, 20% = every 4 days, 15% = every 5 days, 10% = about 1 week, 5% = about 2 weeks.

[amorphous]

It's on every thread now - some threads twice...:)

Thanks for the heads up.

[mrsmith]

Well, I say this to all prognosticators:
It’s getting hopeless to do a number for US cases/ fatalities/ whatever, because US has several different outbreaks going on.
It’s like doing a graph of the world- there’s too much variation for it to mean much to lump everything together.

Anyway, appreciate what you do.
And you’re still on yesterday’s thread.

[Black Agnes]

I’ve been alive 8 decades.

[amorphous]

I finally managed to get it on #37. And yes, this is like trying to predict where a hurricane will make landfall, and what will be it's strength when if/when it does make landfall.

We're at least making some headway here in the US. The last spike for the US, I believe, can be attributed to spring breakers and Mardi Gras. A cure will show up as an immediate plunge. Charts are very valuable tools. Like all tools, they have their different uses.

[miserare]

Got you beat by 4 years.

[Black Agnes]

Actually it’s 7 decades.

I can’t count.

:-/

[calenel]

Application: I will not feed the trolls.

LOL. I miss the gym, though. :/

[elenvee]

Thanks. I understood most of it.

[riri]

Well, it's strange. I looked at it on Thursday and it said they were scheduling 3 days out.

I put the order together yesterday and it said to pick a time slot for yesterday. I picked 4-5 pm. I thought it was weird that suddenly they could deliver same day but, whatever.

4-5 came. 5-6. 6-7. No delivery.

I checked this morning and it said it was coming on the 9th.

So, I guess, maybe, Thursday?

I said I had low expectations so not surprised.

[amorphous]

Yeah, not too dependable. Sounds like ours here.

[Chickensoup]

get guineas

Possums stink.

[cgbg]

I took most of the day off away from this thread.

Until there is a cure at scale and/or a vaccine, every declaration of victory will be followed by a disaster.

The second wave will start from a much higher baseline and cause many more hospitalizations and deaths.

Check out this China picture:

People are packed at Huangshan (Yellow Mountain), a jagged range of more than 70 knifelike peaks in eastern China’s Anhui province, after quarantine ban lifted in most parts of China

https://twitter.com/QiZHAI/status/1246632280749039617

Most folks are wearing masks, and it is three months since the outbreak in Wuhan.

I would expect a major new virus break-out in China—but the question is whether we will get to hear about it.

[cgbg]

Check out this DC photo:

People hanging out at the Wharf fish markets in DC

https://twitter.com/FenitN/status/1246787615623467012

There is some serious “leakage” going on...

[firebrand]

The mistake most people make, including journalists, is to say someone has entered their sixth decade when they turn sixty. No, they have entered their seventh decade when they turn sixty-one. So they get two things wrong at the same time.

Copy editors LOVE to fix things like this and make everyone crazy.

[Black Agnes]

Ya. That.

And I can’t add ;)

[metmom]

I’m leaning towards that.

I’ve heard they can go wild but that does not bother me much.

[metmom]

I am continuing to prep.

I am taking NOTHING for granted.