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An Interview with a Rockefeller University Professor of Epidemiology and Biostatistics: The Coronavirus Epidemic Is Essentially Over
Vital Substance Blog ^ | 04/12/2020 | Uwe Alschner

Posted on 04/12/2020 8:50:22 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

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To: SoCal Pubbie

Yes, and still available to hear the whole thing. (At Levin).

He speaks perfect English,
and was schooled in Germany.


41 posted on 04/13/2020 4:24:53 AM PDT by Does so (Call it the CCP-virus...The Corona-virus dies in Summer's sunlight! But next spring's Chinese virus?)
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To: SeekAndFind

Excellent article! Thank you. Wish Trump had this guy (or similar) on staff, to counter King Fauci.

BTW, Fauci screwed up the AIDS epidemic. They spent billions and billions for a vaccine. Never came. But Fauci was well employed, and sought after, for decades. The guys is a disaster.


42 posted on 04/13/2020 5:06:29 AM PDT by Basket_of_Deplorables (Unredact the 99 Collyer Report!!!)
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To: InterceptPoint
to claim it’s over is just silly and very unprofessional.

I think he's far more qualified x 100 to make that assessment than you..........

43 posted on 04/13/2020 5:08:46 AM PDT by Hot Tabasco (How did I survive the Swine flu and the killer flu of 2017-18 without govt. help?)
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To: SeekAndFind

Thanks for posting this!

Prayers UP for all affected by the wuhancirus!


44 posted on 04/13/2020 6:50:52 AM PDT by WildHighlander57 ((WildHighlander57 returning after lurking since 2000)
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To: Hot Tabasco

I think he’s far more qualified x 100 to make that assessment than you..........
+++++
No doubt he is more qualified than I am. He just happens to be wrong in this case. If there is evidence that this crisis is over I missed it.

Trump is not kidding when he tells us that his decision on how to proceed to return to normal in about 2 weeks will be the most difficult of his life.

Trump thinks there is a crisis. Apparently you don’t. I’ll stick with Trump and the facts.


45 posted on 04/13/2020 6:53:10 AM PDT by InterceptPoint (Ted, you finally endorsed.)
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To: MAGAthon

Not even two months ago...


46 posted on 04/13/2020 7:25:43 AM PDT by DennisR (Look around. God gives countless clues that He does, indeed, exist.)
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To: InterceptPoint
I’ll stick with Trump and the facts.

I'll stick with Wittkowski, not Fauci who has been all over the board with these ever changing models since he first stepped foot on stage.........

As a side note, 22,000 deaths so far, and 79,416 deaths in the 2017-18 flu epidemic......We've got a long way to go.

47 posted on 04/13/2020 7:54:37 AM PDT by Hot Tabasco (How did I survive the Swine flu and the killer flu of 2017-18 without govt. help?)
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To: dp0622

They - the U.S. politicians - avoided going for herd immunity while just protecting the most vulnerable for two reasons.

The initial error - The first reason was the CDC/FDA failed at very early development and production of test kits with which labs everywhere all over the country would readily ascertain samples from patients as Covid-19 positive, or not. That meant most early care was based only on (a) severe flu like symptoms, (b) but with seasonal flu virus tests negative. Thus case levels unknown and statistical worst case scenarios on the table as possible.

The second reason was with on top of the initial error the statistically possible wave of infections appeared to be one that could quickly overwhelm the health care system.

The combination resulted in the worst outcome - delay obtaining herd immunity by mass shutdowns for the only purpose of not overwhelming the health care system.

Trying to save the health care system from being overwhelmed required destroying a healthy economy with mass shutdowns of businesses.

Destroying the healthy economy required massive measures to try to “save” the economy by massive tax expenditures - $trillions.

Contrary to what was done, an infusion directly into the health care industry of less than one half of what is to be spent on economic stimulus, could have provided the means to sustain higher Covid-19 case loads this year, while we obtained herd immunity and did not shut down the economy.

Without herd immunity achieved here in the spring of 2020, the viral infections WILL mount up again in the fall, just as the flu always does, and many who did not get their mild infections already will be getting them then, and spreading them again to likely severe-case individuals. Likely not changing a total severe case count for all of 2020 & 2021 that could have been more greatly absorbed in 2020 alone, without an economic shutdown.

I think it is not how many will get an infection or die altogether, over the course of an epidemic, but only at which point in the epidemic will they each occur, before the population is through with the worst of it.

Until enough recoverable cases have been undertaken, the population as whole remains vulnerable, not “safe”.


48 posted on 04/13/2020 8:02:31 AM PDT by Wuli
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To: Hot Tabasco

We’ve got a long way to go.
+++++
Indeed we do. How long did it take us to get where we are with the flu. Years, decades, Centuries? We are just a few months into it with this newest devil.

You simply cannot make a legitimate comparison between the flu and the Coronavirus. In the case of the flu, humanity has developed at least some level of resistance. We don’t have that for the new one.

Sad to predict that the death totals for this virus will greatly exceed this years flu casualties. That is not certain, of course, but it is by far the most likely outcome.

Don’t assume that our move back to “normal” won’t increase the infection and death count. There is no magic here. They will both increase. It is a price we are just going to have to pay.

The status quo, the lockdown, is not sustainable. We have to move away from that as quickly as we can. But infection and death rates will suffer.


49 posted on 04/13/2020 8:09:33 AM PDT by InterceptPoint (Ted, you finally endorsed.)
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To: SeekAndFind

I appreciate all of your positive news articles!


50 posted on 04/13/2020 8:25:48 AM PDT by Zirondelle76
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