Posted on 01/30/2024 2:50:48 PM PST by ckilmer
even marginal gains per shot will get them to 20 in 5 years.
Would you pay for this with your own money?
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Basic and applied research is some of the best best ways that tax dollars are spent. The payoff is that in time the cost of energy will be orders of magnitude cheaper for the public.
I absolutely agree with that. However, I do not think that Q will increase enough to make it profitable. Better and cheaper with fission,
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I’m an average intelligence. Not above average. Genius level is way over the horizen.
You don’t strike me being much smarter than I am.
We are as two guys in a cave where the fire light casts shadows on the wall above. That’s what we see of the world. Shadows on the back of a cave of the real players in the world dancing in the fire light.
This is to say, that I’m more impressed by the shadows I see—than the shadows you see. Mostly because of the incredible confindence of so many people way smarter than I am with a lot to lose if they fail. But also because the number of very smart people who not only believe them but put up billions of dollars to make it happen.
So very smart people with a lot to lose if they fail—have convinced other very smart people to risk billions—extending the risk to them if they fail— to make it happen.
Not only that but the sheer number of fusion companies is now 50 or so worldwide with a bunch of them in the USA.
This would have been impossible 10 years ago.
That means that something fundamental that neither of us understand —has changed.
That said, two years ago I would have agreed with you. 20 years in the future and always will be. That’s conventional wisdom.
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