Posted on 06/17/2005 7:23:46 AM PDT by SJackson
D1 and D9 - Unfortunatly, the Knollenberg seat is almost like the Stupak seat. Bush won it by only 5000, and both sides have a good farm club (David Woodward, Gary Peters, we have Rocky, Mark Shulman and Mike Bishop) there for when he retires. We have Tom Casperson who is a strong candidate for the Stupak seat. They have 3 yooper reps and an Alpena Rep. The incumbent parties in those two seats are much stronger locally than nationally as well? Those two are the easiest pickup chances IF opened.
D11 - McCotter's district scares me. The dems had internal fighting over this spot in 2002, and sent a sac lamb in 2004 which shocked me. There's always been labor tendancies in the Wayne County part of this seat. Redford is no longer a swing area and is now reliably democrat due to migration and unions. Dearborn Heights may be going down that same road. They may be the next Westland. If Livonia takes a blue shift, we're in big trouble. Westland, Garden City, Wayne, and Van Buren have been solid dem for years. Canton and Plymouth City has been too close for comfort the past three elections. Only Plymouth and Northville Twps(with Livonia a leaner) have been solid in Wayne for us. Luckily, McCotter has some of the best parts of Oakland in his district with Novi and Commerce, as well as Milford and South Lyon which is more like Livingston County in politics.
D7 - The Schwarz/Smith seat scares me only if one of the Spades(Doug or Dudley) or Mark Schauer runs. That said Schwarz hasn't been as antagonistic to conservatives as a congressman as he was in the State Senate. He may get primaried. For the dem to win, Calhoun can't be close, and the Washtenaw burbs, Eaton, and Lenawee would have to flip. Jackson would have to be close as well.
D8 - The Rogers seat isn't going to be taken over for a long time. Lansing doesn't have the population growth to keep up, and Livingston County's growth and greater red shift is putting it out of reach unless we throw up a pro-choicer and/or anti-gunner to replace Rogers. Shiawassee is taking a right turn, and Clinton(Alan Cropsey land) and Livingston aren't voting for dems for federal office anytime soon. Ingham would have to singlehandedly carry it, and not even Byrum did that in 2000. There are also at least 5 strong republicans who could take this seat rather easily, and only two democrats I can think of who would give us a real headache.
Thanks for the insight.
I wouldn't worry about the Dems placing Livingston in a Dem district in 2011 if they take over the state legislature. The smart thing for them to do would be to attach Livingston to Republican parts of Oakland and perhaps part of the Thumb to create an outrageously Republican district that would leave all of the surrounding districts leaning Democrat.
I saw part of his panel discussing the downing street memo on CSAPN last night... The man had no clue where he was or who was sitting next to him. Senile members of congress should be removed.
I knew Ford lived in Ypsi for awhile. Lynn Rivers took his spot. That district was carved up.
I think Broomfield(of Oakland) also actually represented part of Livingston for awhile(when it was less populated) until 91/92. Knollenberg never had Livingston in his district. I know Bob Carr(centrist for a Lansing dem) did represent Livingston as well for years. In 92, all of Livingston went to Carr in the 8th, as did Oakland's Holly and Rose Twps, and part of Flint and Ann Arbor's suburbs. It was our own "Bloody 8ths" in the 90's. Chrysler took the open seat in 94. Our "good friend" Debbie Stabmenow took the seat in 96 and 98 and left in 2000 to run for Senate. Mike Rogers took that spot against Byrum by 88 votes.
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The 1st district in 96(when I started following much of this) covered the UP, and part of North Michigan. It leaned much more republican than with much of the Lake Michigan Coast(Grand Traverse County and others), but they liked Stupak. Stupak had tough races, but always found a way to win. In 2002, Stupak's lost most of the strong Republican areas, and took the more marginal GOP and dem leaning central to Lake Huron counties of all of Crawford, Oscoda, Alpena, Alcona, Iosco, Arenac, Gladwin, and Bay County north of Bay City. He gained much of that from moderate dem Jim Barcia's district.
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District 2 (Pete Hoekstra) hasn't changed all that much. It still is a Holland based district on Lake Michigan's coast and the most GOP in the state. Splits Allegen county.
District 3 (Vern Ehlers) is similar as well. Kent County based, as well as Barry and Ionia.
District 4 (Dave Camp) now covers Midland(as before), Central and West Saginaw Counties, Northern Shiawasse, and all of Clare, Grand Traverse, Gratiot, Isabella, Kalkaska, Leelanau, Mecosta, Missaukee, Montcalm, Oceola, and Roscommon.
District 5 is now Dale Kildee's district. Kildee loses the Oakland and Lapeer parts of his district and has all of Genesee and Tuscola counties, as well as Eastern Saginaw County(Saginaw City), and Southern Bay County(Bay City).
District 6 is Uptons district. It's taken a left shift with Kalamazoo going left. Covers all of Berrien, Van Buren, Kalamazoo, Cass, and St Joseph Counties, as well as Southern Allegan county, and Leroy and Athens townships in Calhoun.
District 7 is Schwarz's district. Some changes, but not many. It now covers all of Eaton, Calhoun(outside LeRoy/Athens), Jackson, Lenawee, Branch and Hillsdale. Also covers Northern and Western Washtenaw Counties.
District 8 is Mike Rogers district. It loses the Flint burbs to Kildee and Ann Arbor suburbs to Dingell and Schwarz. It gains Clinton County(From Camp) and more of Northern Oakland(from Kildee).(Addison, Brandon, Clarkston, Groveland, Independence, Oxford, Springfield, and part of Orion are new).
District 9 is Knollenberg's district. It is a 50/50 district now, but is less democrat than before when it had Southfield. Knollenberg loses Southfield to Sander Levin. He loses his West Oakland and and Wayne COunty portion to McCotter. He gains the dem stronghold of Pontiac from Kildee, and also Auburn Hills, Rochester, Rochester Hills, and Troy(from either Kildee or Levin).
District 10 is Candice Miller's district. It was created to take out Bonior. It covers the Thumb outside of Tuscola County and covers Macomb County North of Mt Clemens.
District 11 is Thad McCotter's district. It's marginal GOP and covers Western Wayne(Livonia, Redford, Westland, Wayne, part of Dearborn Heights, Garden City, Van Buren Belleville, Canton, Plymouth, and Northville) and Western Oakland Counties(Lyon Twp, South Lyon, Wixom, Milford, Highland, Commerce, Novi, Northville, White Lake, and part of Waterford). It was taken from Lynn Rivers', Joe Knollenberg, and possibly John Dingell's District.
District 12 is Sander Lenin's district. Covers SE Oakland and Southern Macomb Counties. Southfield Eastward and Mt Clemens southward.
District 13 is Kilpatrick's District - Covers part of Detroit, The Grosse Pointes, Ecorse, Harper Woods, Lincoln Park, River Rouge, and Wyandotte.
District 14 is Conyers's district. Covers part of Detroit, East Dearborn, Allen Park, Gibralter, Grosse Ile, Hamtramck, Highland Park, Melvindale, Riverview, Southgate, and Trenton.
District 15 is Dingell's - Covers West Dearborn, Taylor, Part of Dearborn Heights, Brownstown, Flat Rock, Huron, Inkster, Rockwood, Sumpter, Woodhaven, and Romulus in Wayne County, as well as Eastern Washtenaw County(Ann Arbor/Ypsi), and all of Monroe County.
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