Who Can Win in 2004? (Originally Published October 17, 2003)

reasononline ^ | October 17, 2003 | Jonathan Rauch

[Checkers]

How does this "14 year rule" apply against the '08 contenders?

Is George Allen "not fresh"? What is Hillary's expiration date, 2018 or 2006? Are McCain, Rudy and Newt toast?

[RockinRight]

Hillary expired about 20 years ago, methinks.

[CurlyBill]

Hillary's date is tied to Bill's... expired.

[Politicalities]

This makes about as much sense as the now-defunct Redskins Rule.

By his rules, Hillary expires in 2014, having been first elected to a major office in 2000. But it's a silly rule anyway.

[Eagles Talon IV]

This is an excellent example of using the past to predict the future. It works each and every time, until it doesn't.

[Behind Liberal Lines]

Are McCain, Rudy and Newt toast?

I'm not sure Mayors count as "major office."

[Behind Liberal Lines]

Never mind. I see where he included Mayors of large cities

[advance_copy]

But if a politician first runs for some other major office, the 14-year clock starts ticking.

Bill Clinton ran for Congress in 1974, 18 years before he was elected President. George W. Bush ran for Congress in 1978, 22 years before he was elected President.

Now, if we're talking years since being elected or first taking office, Newt Gingrich has expired (elected to Congress in 1989 after losing two prior attempts). Rudy Giuliani was first elected Mayor of New York City in 1994, so he won't quite be expired in 2008. McCain was first elected in 1982, so he's way past the point of spoilage. Hillary was rotten out of the box, but technically she has not past the posted expiration date (I think she is designed to smell like that).

George Allen was first elected Governor of Virginia in 1993, so he will be technically past expiration date in 2008. But George Allen's shelf life is longer than all other politicians because he's downright cool.

[jdm]

"By his rules, Hillary expires in 2014, having been first elected to a major office in 2000."

Hitlery was co-President with Slick Willie since Jan. 1993. Therefore, using this guy's formula, Old Crusty expires in '07, before the next Presidential election.

[Kenny Bunk]

Checkers, what a great post!

I would love to point out to the author, in re Bill Clinton:

Had he not won the presidency in 1992, his national career would have been over.

Had George H.W. Bush been alive, Bill Clinton would never have won, either.

[Names Ash Housewares]

Americans elect Governors, ex-Governors, VPs or ex-Vps, and re-elect sitting Presidents in recent history.
Senators in recent history rarely win. Kennedy was the only Senator in recent history that has made it and just barely, and even that election is questioned for fraud.

[right right]

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Hillary was rotten out of the box, but technically she has not past the posted expiration date (I think she is designed to smell like that).


Thus "Hilliary **Rottenham** Clinton"

[Verginius Rufus]

I guess we can stop worrying about senators-for-life Robert C. Byrd, Edward M. Kennedy, and Daniel Inouye.

[truth_seeker]

"Had George H.W. Bush been alive, Bill Clinton would never have won, either."

It didn't seem that Bush 41 cared much, one way or the other. Been there, done that.

Did the Kuwait thing. So if Ross and Bill want the job so much, let them have it. I'm out of here.

[MNJohnnie]

1960 also had head to head Senate match up. Nixon had served in the US Senate prior to becoming VP.

[MNJohnnie]

George Allen was first elected Governor of Virginia in 1993, so he will be technically past expiration date in 2008. But George Allen's shelf life is longer than all other politicians because he's downright cool.M

Yep he sure is. I met him this week at a fund raiser. Is a very good speaker too. Sen George Allen can kick butt as a Presidential Candidate in 2008. Rush Limbaugh speaks well of him. Allen gives a great stump speech. Really pleased to hear him take such a staunch "keep the Internet free" stand as part of his speech. Young people at the rally really were excited to meet him. He has huge likeablity.

[Alter Kaker]

Not only is this a stupid rule, but it only works if you play games, by pretending that Vice President (for Nixon, Bush, Truman, etc.) is the same as President. It isn't. When Richard Nixon ran for President in 1968, it has been 22 years since he had first been elected to high office. Not exactly a political novice.

[JasonC]

There is an obvious reason for this phenomenon. Someone of sufficient ability goes up on their own. Getting close to the big leagues but never successfully entering them, is itself a sign of lack of ability, backing, and ambition.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Now, if we're talking years since being elected or first taking office, Newt Gingrich has expired (elected to Congress in 1989 after losing two prior attempts). Rudy Giuliani was first elected Mayor of New York City in 1994, so he won't quite be expired in 2008."

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Newt was first elected to Congress in 1978, so he's long expired if we believe Rauch. Rudy was first elected mayor in 1993, so 2008 will be the 15th anniversary of his first successful major election.

[Luke21]

Agreed. This is really stupid.