Iraq After Jaafari (the real reason Jaafari stepped down)

Time ^ | April 20 2006 | TONY KARON

[jmc1969]

The Iraqi Army is very afraid of Jaafari and Sadr and the pro-Iranian scum in the UIA. The Army knows that the pro-Iranian Shia want to disband the Army and put in power sectarian militias to control Iraq. The threat of Allawi using the Iraqi Army to kick the religious leaders out of government finally motivated them to act and kick out Jaafari. If they didn't do this the US would have supported Allawi and the Iraqi Army in getting rid of the pro-Iranian scum rather then see Iraq fall apart.

[bnelson44]

A coup would not receive US backing.

[jmc1969]

Offically you are correct, unoffically you are totally wrong.

However, the point is moot now that Jaafari has stepped down.

[tobyhill]

When did he officially step down?

[pctech]

I wonder what the fallout from this will be and if it is our best interests for him to step down. Opinions please.

[jmc1969]

Today Jaafari punted the decision back to the UIA for PM at the demand of Sistani this opens the UIA up to make another choice. However, it is quite possible they could choose even worse then Jaafari, but I don't suspect they will.

[jmc1969]

The political process in Iraq has been stopped for months because Jaafari would not step down, now that he has there is at least a chance it will go forward.

[tobyhill]

Cool, yesterday I heard there was no way he was leaving.

[bnelson44]

Cool, yesterday I heard there was no way he was leaving.

Ah, but that was yesterday, and the country is Iraq! :)

[bnelson44]

No way! Bush would never go for it.

[jmc1969]

What I have heard from behind the scenes is that another several months of no government in Iraq and the US would have been willing to sit back and let the pro-Iranian Shia be kicked out. The US no longer considers Sadr and a number of others like Jaafari in the UIA to be democratic or willing to allow for future free and fair elections.

There isn't democracy as you or I know it in Iraq, the elections in the south of Iraq were as rigged as the Iranian election. The US knows it and has used the evidence they collected of the militias and Iranians rigging the vote to force the UIA to promise to make a government of national unity.

Right now the political process finally has a chance to move forward if the UIA makes a decient choice of PM. If the UIA choses someone as bad or worse then Jaafari the political process as we know it will be stuck in limbo and every second the political process is stuck in limbo with no government is a second Iraq moves closer to the edge of the cliff.

A coup would be far preferable to Iraq decending into endless civil war and chaos. Allawi actually does believe in democracy, but at the same time believes the Iraqi state is on the edge of the cliff. It is now up to the UIA to choose what future Iraq will have.

[bnelson44]

The not so hidden scuttlebutt is that Sadr's militia will be taken out when the new government comes into power. I will not hold my breath though. He is a surviver.

[jmc1969]

yes, but I suspect he will try to cut some deal again to disarm his militia and then renig on it several months later like last time.

[bnelson44]

He never disarmed to begin with.

[jmc1969]

He said he would after the August 2004 Najaf crisis and he agreed to go along with a government sponsered weapons for cash deal, but that was short lived.

[Marine_Uncle]

Yes we had read a few weeks back in one post the plans for once the government is officiated, Sadr's milita would be dealt with. As for jmc1969's comments, I feel he is pretty close or could be dead on. Jaafari had to have something pretty tough pushed in the front of his nose, such as reliable info as how he was involved in rigging elections in the south as well as elsewhere. I have a feeling there are more Iraqi politican who really hate Sadr and Jaafari and Jaf's inner circle then we could expect. Forces are working against him for four months plus. Hakim being a shia ayattolah and a Persian leaning political type from the SCIRI would have to have a darn good reason to not support Jaafari from the UIA standpoint. Granted he wanted his man in, Mahdi. But I sense he was stabbed in the back by the Dawa party and those falling under the spell of the fat boy.
And if anything. Mahdi is on the record for a unity national government ruled in a secular way. Which is in line with what Sistani has asked for all along, and I sense Hakim has gone along with though, dispite his ties to the Persian Shia.
This could just work out, if some real meat ball is not elected as PM.
The new PM is going to turn things around or it will go down hill, and this time it may really go nutzo, due to the peoples total disapointments in the gov.

[daivid]

The Shia, Sunnis and Kurds must learn to get along. I'm glad that finally the log jam is going away.

[ClaireSolt]

2/3 majority to form a government is a very high bar they set for themselves.

[McGavin999]

It's going to be interesting to see just who they put up for the position of PM. I have a feeling that one of the things that will come out of all of this is a weakening of the position of PM and a strengthening of the other leadership positions.

[gafusa]

I agree. Jafaari is a murderous thug and an Iranian proxy. I would support a coup by Allawi. It would be risky, but maybe Allawi and the Army launching a coup, combined with killing Sadr, and then together with the US smashing the militias would be the best thing for Iraq.