How low will real estate go?

msnbc.com ^ | 9-11-06 | Lacey Rose

[Youngman442002]

So if you are out looking for a new house....ask the owners if they are liberals.....or I should say "progressives"...if they say they are....then offer them 25% less....they know they should take it...because the housing market is bad....the MSM has told them so

[Paisan]

You're right. I just checked Realtor.com. Nothing's coming down in MA.
I live in SC and I check periodically to see what I would pay for a comparable house in my old neighborhoods - 01760, 01701, 02301.

[Moonman62]

Few, if any, economists are enthusiastic about current market conditions, thanks to a host of bleak figures recently released by home builders, federal agencies and the National Association of Realtors.

The Citigroup analyst had good things to say about the home builders yesterday.

[wtc911]

Pigs get slaughtered.

-----------------------------------------

Pigs get fat - hogs get slaughtered.

[Moonman62]

This will be over when every no-down-payment loan, every interest-only loan, and every negative amortization loan is liquidated and the borrowers (who haven't sold already) are all dead on the floor.

That sounds a lot like what the liquidationists told Herbert Hoover at the beginning of the Great Depression.

[colonialhk]

They are also missing the point that the cost of materials has gone way up so if you compare the cost of building what you may have now you are way ahead of the game. Unless you are leveraged out the ying yang!

Statement to the pundits....Its where I live....not a liquid investment!

[Moonman62]

When gasoline prices go through the roof the public can not afford bigger house payments. The price of Gasoline is starting to fall. Gasoline will fall a lot more. As it does home sales will go up.

Interest rates are already going down, which is even more important.

[RockinRight]

Let me know when I can buy a 2500 square foot colonial for a dollar.

;-)

[OldEagle]

My personal opinion is that prices went way too high after Katrina and now normalcy is returning.

[Obadiah]

Funny you should mention that, as no one else has. Unbelievable how the cost of building materials have gone up. Because of a recent hail storm, we got an estimate to reside our house. $16k just to reside the house! We know what we paid to build our house in 1998 and were amazed by this cost. So, if it costs $16,000 just to side our house, imagine what it would cost to build it today!! Oil has increased prices in everything, including housing.

[Toddsterpatriot]

Is there also a hope that any dissatisfaction this may cause can be picked up by the left and translated in to votes and power?

Yes. The question is, why do supposed conservatives on FR join in and cheer for a crash?

[DCPatriot]

Lawrence Yun, a senior economist for NAR...National Association of Realtors, is more optimistic. He claims that the market has returned to more earthly figures after a period of unsustainable growth. "Any decline will be very short-lived," he said. "By the spring of 2007, the market will begin to see increased sales and strengthening in home prices."

I've been a realtor in the Washington DC, Maryland region for almost 29 years.

Mr. Yun is on crack!

I predict $700K SFD (single family detached) homes in Montgomery Country Maryland will be selling for below $600K by the Spring of 2007...Townhouses at $400K will be mid to low $300's.

IOW....at 12% to 15% decline in SOLD prices compared to today.

[svcw]

Well, falling hah! where does this stuff happen. Not in my neighborhood. An ordinary, nice but ordinary, house are selling at over 1M is just a few days. We bought our house in 1993 for 300K, just listed it for 1.3M and it sold in one week....weird just plane weird.

[akorahil]

Let me know when I can buy a 2500 square foot colonial for a dollar.

Like this?

[NY.SS-Bar9]

Nothing's coming down in MA.

Ditto in the nortern NYC suburbs - the number of sales is flat or down, but the prices are up 8% this year.

[Leroy S. Mort]

Well, falling hah! where does this stuff happen. Not in my neighborhood.

Nor mine. Appraisals are up over 30% where I live and there are three new very high end subdivisions being built within a mile of my house.

[Katya]

Ten years after any boom and bust....everyone wishes they had bought during the LAST boom. Prices may decrease in the short term, but don't expect it to last for more than five years....if that long.

[spanalot]

Pigs go to the trough, hogs get slaughtered.

[Alberta's Child]

There is no way the U.S. housing market is going to go into any kind of major across-the-board decline. The reason for this is quite simple . . .

This country's standing policy of unfettered immigration (legal and illegal) pretty much guarantees that there will always be robust demand for housing -- particularly in our major metropolitan areas.

[roaddog727]

"The key is to make sure that the income on the property services the debt (including expenses) plus 15%. You won't go wrong that way no matter where in the cycle you buy."

BINGO!

We have a winner!