Posted on 10/20/2006 6:54:11 AM PDT by Ravi
You're absolutely right. The county and state GOP didn't support Eric in the primary so he's better off without them.
Good call Miss Marple.
I don't think this is the running back Erik Dickerson. This one owns a car dealership.
>>Wonder if the RNC is funding the Pub? Will anyone in the Gop establishment go campaigning there?
No, and no.
Ping. This poll is kinda surprising. I think the last polling iteration in this CD was Research 2000 with Carson 55, Dickerson 35. Selzer&Co. is not a highly rated firm in my book, but I think this means that this seat needs to be put back on the list somewhere.
More on Mr. Dickerson. The good news is that he is a Black Republican. ;-D
http://www.ericdickersonforcongress.com/
I had checked out Eric Dickerson (IIRC he's got an auto dealership and was never an NFL runningback : ) a few months ago, and thought he would have great potential if the district wasn't so gerrymandered in favor of the Democrats. I am wary of polls showing Julia Carson losing, since we went through this same thing in 2002 and 2004 and she ended up winning rather comfortably. Still, there must be something to this, given that several groups that have been quite bullish on the Democrats winning everywhere had called this race a "lean Dem" (instead of likely Dem or safe Dem) even before this poll.
If the GOP manages to control both houses of the IN legislature and the governorship after the 2010 election, it would be rather easy for them to split Indianapolis into two urban-suburban districts. They could keep almost all of the city's black population together in a district that also includes the very Republican suburbs, and combine white parts of the city with other suburbs, and end up with two districts that would have given President Bush between 55%-60% in 2004. If Dickerson can come close to beating Carson in a 42% Bush CD, he would wallop her in a 55% Bush CD.
My greatest skepticism arises from the fact that as of Sept 30 Dickerson had raised only $47,684 and had just $21,824 cash on hand. Dickerson's first radio ads did not begin until Oct 18, so it's a bit of an enigma how he built up even the name recognition to poll that well. I think it's more likely that this poll is off than that Dickerson is in the lead, but I've added IN-07 to my list anyhow.
If the poll is correct and 49% of voters disapprove of Carson, then Dickerson may indeed be at 45% merely by being the other guy. Plus, being a car dealer, he's probably been running TV ads in the district for many years, so his name ID was probably at a respectable level even before the race began.
"she's also been unable to get over 55% of the vote since the seat was redistricted in 2002 making it more attractive to Republican candidates"
Yes, but Research 2000 polled this race at 55% to 35% six weeks ago and I don't know of anything that's happened in the interim which would make Carson's 'generic' standing any worse. Notwithstanding the different timeframes, one or the other poll can't be right IMHO, and the Research 2000 makes a lot more sense, all things considered, than does the Selzer & Co poll.
It'd be great if Carson gets retired, but I'm still skeptical about this poll.
I am skeptical as well, but it is mostly because of the Democrat lean of the district, not because of Dickerson having low name-ID.
Did Research 2000 ask about Carson's favorability?
No, but if Dickerson is beating Carson merely because he's the other name and her unfavorables are so high then he should've been beating her for the same reason six weeks ago, not trailing by 20%. Similarly, if Carson was then viewed unfavorably by half the voters as she supposedly is now then she should not have been getting more than half the vote.
But my point is that maybe Carson's favorability has dropped for some reason. Dickerson doesn't have to be on the air for that to happen.
That may well be true, but I don't know of any reason why it would be. One obvious reason would've been if her favorability had dropped due to Dickerson's campaign, but his first ads didn't air until Oct 18, which makes that an implausible explanation.
Local car dealer. He would meet everyone who came on the lot first!
Very personable and a good businessman
And help the GOP keep contorl of the House while doing it.
that's saying something, given the competition !
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