Assessing the Six Year Hunt for Osama bin Laden

The Jamestown ^ | 9-25-07 | Michael Scheuer

[SevenMinusOne]

Government is a huge bureaucracy, it does many things on inertia and with no regard for rationality.

We're in full agreement here -

[txhurl]

Dog turned me on this an hour or so ago:

Bin Laden may have just escaped U.S. forces

August mission in Tora Bora almost snared 'high value target'

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21000298/

A little more than a month ago, with the anniversary of Sept. 11 approaching and fears of a new al Qaeda attack rising, some U.S. intelligence and military analysts thought they had found one of the world’s two most wanted men just where they last saw them six years ago.

For three days and nights — between Aug. 14 and 16 — U.S. and Afghanistan forces pounded the mountain caves in Tora Bora, the same caves where Osama Bin Laden had hidden out and then fled in late 2001 after U.S. forces drove al Qaeda out of Afghanistan cities. Ultimately, however, U.S. forces failed to find Bin Laden or his deputy, Ayman al Zawahiri, even though their attacks left dozens of al Qaeda and Taliban dead.

excerpt

[SevenMinusOne]

Is Zawahiri dead? (In your opinion). Is Zawahiri in Pakistan (in your opinion).

Is Gulbuddin Hekmatyar dead? (in your opinion). Is Hekmatyar operating in Konar (Stan) and Pak border regions?

Is Mullah Omar dead? (in your opinion?) Is he most likely in Pakistan?

Was Mullah Dadullah alive up until early this year in Stan/Pak border regions? (An HVT we had been after since 01).

Again, you can know the whereabouts (within a hex zone) of someone to a high level of certainty (along with the certainty of them being "alive") without being able to pinpoint their exact location.....(especially so, if one understands the terrain within these border regions we are discussing).

And sure, UBL may move around (likely does between seasons within Pak...Almost assuredly). But if he moves within these border regions....all the intangibles still stay on his side...(as he is within the same border regions). Completely different situation then moving between other countries. The variables of to "why" are too numerous to list.

[txhurl]

Duh, I now see you’d posted the OBL/Tora Bora thread, sorry to dupe, Sir.

[Dr. Frank fan]

Is Zawahiri dead? (In your opinion).

no

Is Zawahiri in Pakistan (in your opinion).

haven't the faintest idea. how would I know where some hidden stranger from halfway around the world is right now?

Is Gulbuddin Hekmatyar dead? (in your opinion).

I don't think so, because I know you'd be the first to post the news on FR if he were killed :)

Is Hekmatyar operating in Konar (Stan) and Pak border regions?

I don't know.

Is Mullah Omar dead? (in your opinion?)

I'm going to say probably not.

Is he most likely in Pakistan?

wouldn't know how to gauge where he is "most likely"

Was Mullah Dadullah alive up until early this year in Stan/Pak border regions? (An HVT we had been after since 01).

I gather you're talking about someone who was killed early this year in the Stan/Pak border region. In that case, it tautologically follows that he was alive up until early this year, and was in the Stan/Pak border region for at least some amount of time prior to his death. yes

Again, you can know the whereabouts (within a hex zone) of someone to a high level of certainty

And again, I know that one "can". I just don't buy that our government actually does, in this case.

[SevenMinusOne]

Fair enough - Solid answers -

[SunkenCiv]

Ron Paul supporter ping.

[BJungNan]

Has it occured to anyone that perhaps the U.S. government and other Western countries do NOT want to catch him?

[piytar]

You forgot the Barf Alert. He may be knowledgable from a factual perspective, which places him above most MSM hacks, but he has little true understanding.

[my_pointy_head_is_sharp]

No reason they couldn’t honor him in private, especially when keeping his death from us furthers their cause. I’m sure that AQ has recognized his passing; and keeping his death a secret is their way of honoring him. The last time we saw live video of OBL (years ago), he looked REALLY bad, like he was going to die. And this most recent tape is an obvious forgery. I’m afraid that Ed’s Banana Limo has split the scene.

[SevenMinusOne]

No reason they couldn’t honor him in private, especially when keeping his death from us furthers their cause. I’m sure that AQ has recognized his passing; and keeping his death a secret is their way of honoring him.

We almost assuredly would have picked up "chatter" suggesting such. Secrets of this size always leak (even if just within an organization)......Plus, there would be movement within AQ that would signal such as well - There really hasn't been any such dynamic changes within AQ -

[evets]

[jpl]

Has it occured to anyone that perhaps the U.S. government and other Western countries do NOT want to catch him?

That thought had occurred to me when President Bush went on record saying "I don't know where Bin Laden is, and I don't care." (Some people might even consider that a "hint".)