Posted on 08/31/2008 7:22:08 PM PDT by Onerom99
The Dems got a Dead Cat Bounce
In theory 10 or 12 percentage points bump..
I'm sure the MSM will be doing their best to make sure those pictures do not materialize.
I mean dropped 6% of the Republican vote.
I have a feeling the GOP convention is going to be low key and that over the top..
The two worst Democrat bounces (previous to this one) were John Kerry in 2004 and George McGovern in 1972. Both candidates lost.
The biggest bounce of all time was Bill Clinton in 1992 - he received a 30-point bounce. However, this was mostly due to Ross Perot dropping out of the race just prior to the Democratic convention that year.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Pretty stunning.
And CNN to boot.
They must be freaking out. LOL
I know, right?
The last time I checked there wasn’t a vote cast yet.
I think Palin energizes the base, and you can’t win without that, and she also will help some of those blue collar Reagan Democrats over to McCain, the ones who don’t want to vote for Obama but didn’t find McCain exciting.
What they are failing to say is that Mccain/Palin will get 90+ pct of repubs with Palin on board now
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
>>remains dead even.
My 87 year old Dad, a staunch Democrat, said this to me today when I visited him: “That Obama is a dummy. He blew it. He
could have put Hillary on the ticket, but no; now McCain
puts a woman on the ticket and God help us, the Republicans
are gonna win”
He’s right! :) (He’ll still vote for B.O. though despite
calling him a dummy...)
>>>01-20-09: President McCain’s FIRST Day<<<
McCain and Palin bump. The dims know they are in trouble.
I think we can take off a couple points from Obama with constant ads about Wright, Rezko, Ayers and Pfleger
Plus a side by side shot of the empy suit Obama saying the same speeches as Deval Patrick. I think the Deval patrick side by side is very powerful.
“registered voters”
And we don’t know the mix of Rs, Ds, and Is.
Translation: McCain is ahead and Barry is headed back to the Senate.
The next speech I want to hear Nobama deliver is his concession speech on November 4. I expect it to be eloquent and inspiring.
Your dad’s generation grew up in the depression and served in WWII. They believed that FDR and the Democrats and only they took us out of the depression and won the war.
It is difficult if not impossible to convince them otherwise.
These are the kinds of numbers frightening Obama08 to the point of desperation.
The kind of desperation that drives them to plant crazy slurs about their opponent’s infant child.
Adjust for CNN source, LV v RV, and Wilder factor.
McC/P ~+6
A couple of thoughts:
1. Obama’s bump was mistakenly attributed to his speech when really, people just like fireworks.
2. If McCain gets a bounce this week from a conventional or unconventional convention, it spells trouble for Obama.
3. Palin could use a little speech coaching and I hope they will be giving it to her. Also, she needs to deliver smart, detailed, policy oriented speeches. By being specific, she will come across as more qualified than Obama because she actually will have details in her speeches.
4. Right now, the media cycle will be: Hurricane, Oil, Republican Convention, Palin and somewhere after that Obama. By the end of the week, Hurricane and Oil will be gone. McCain will have his convention bounce emerging. With real work, Palin will be introduced to the country as a smart, attractive, detail oriented, policy governor from one of the most dynamic issues states in the country. Obama will still be off the radar screen.
5. The rest of September will be about getting to know Sarah Palin. With each day she does well and comes acrossed as a smart, detail oriented and policy savvy candidate, her favorables will climb. Obama will also be off the screen.
6. The vice presidential and first presidential debate will come next. The debates will lower Obama’s favorables because expectations for his performance are so high and McCain’s are so low. The rest of the nation will feel the Saddleback effect. Similarly, Biden is expected to eat Governor Palin’s lunch. If she battles to a draw or lands a couple of points, she wins because her expectations are so low.
7. The debates end two weeks before the election. Just in time for one last surprise by McCain, like naming key cabinet members voters can expect to see.
8. Then it’s all get out the vote which is Obama’s strong suit. A couple of law suits in October against ACORN and a surprise here and there like Birth Certificates, Ayers, The sentencing of Resko or the new book by Rev. Wright, can put a lot of unpredictable negativity up there for Obama to deal with off message.
Conclusion: All in all, it looks like if I were a Democrat, I would have more than a passing concern about the cadence of the next 66 days.
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