Posted on 01/01/2009 9:44:55 AM PST by Sub-Driver
The BLS—We didn’t start excluding discouraged workers from the #s till Clinton. If you include that number, we’re over 10% now. If you include part time workers who want full time work, that number was at 12.5% in Novemeber and rose by .7% alone in November.
All of your parallels remind me of other recessions we’ve had recently, though. You’ve got to show me something that rivals Depression stats before I am convinced that this recession is different from the other recessions we’ve had since the Great Depression.
Sure, the bailout reduced the number of bank failures. That demonstrates that it’s not like the Depression. So did the FDIC. Things have changed since the Great Depression. There are a lot of factors that work against the argument that we’re headed into another Depression. Frankly, I see nothing that resembles the Depression. As I said, the stock market collapse is the closest stat that resembles the Great Depression, and even it does not measure up. Sure, we might yet see a Depression like collapse. But the same could have been said in 2001, 1990, 1982, 1975, and the several recessions we had during the 50’s. Heck, everyone thought we were going back into the Depression when WWII ended. It never materialized, though.
If you want other stats try looking at the BDI, look at how much commodities dropped the 1st year of the great depression vs the last 6 months, look at retail sales declining in Q4 for the first time in at least 50 years, look at car sales going from a 17million annual rate to less than 10. Asia is in near free fall (Japan is looking at a -12/14% this quarter, Korea similar). If you think things are going to get better, you are going to get burned if you stay married to that thesis.
Try reading this article and visit the forum to stay informed on business information.
Oh—Debt to GDP is at an all time high (including the previous peak from 1933) and US Treasury rates are at an all time low are 2 other examples of depression type #s.
Some of our states are at risk of default, but it’s not because of the recession. It’s because of excessive liberal spending, which could happen whether you’re in a recession or not, and in fact, has done just that.
When was the last time we had a recession where the GDP increased by 3.2%? Things might get worse—probably will. But it’s going to take a whole lot of dropping before we get to Depression levels. And the drops we’ve had thus far do not in any way suggest that is going to happen.
You could make the argument that this is the shallowest recession on record. Been going on for a whole year, and yet we are at only 6.7% unemployment, with GDP actually increasing at 3.2% during the first 3 quarters of the recession. Personally, I will wait until I see the final numbers before I make that claim, but I’m certainly not going to compare this to the Great Depression at this point.
Of course, there is no question that the government could yet make things worse, but I’m not even going to assume that until it happens.
If CNBS told the truth there would be no chearleading for a stimulus or .25 Fed rate, there would be no one calling a market bottom and there would be no one talking about improvement before 2010.
They simply don’t do a good enough job telling people the truth which is pretty dour right now.
Sold to you. The economy was in a slight recession until the middle of this year, went into heavy recession late in Q3 and has fallen off a cliff in Q4. You should see the #s I have at the grocer I work for which has locations in 20+ states. 6 months ago we were +5% YOY same store sales. We’re at -11% for Period 12. Other sectors are far, far worse.
When Obama gets in, they'll switch tunes. All we'll hear about is how great everything is - ONLY 20% unemployment. No problemo.
CNBC is all about flashing Marie, and Erin (both airheads). Joe Kernan is a dunce, and Faber is...I wish I could say it. Crammer, needs to be jailed, or put into a rubber-room. He has caused much lost investments.
Like I said, I would not be surprised to see worse numbers in the fourth quarter. We already know what the numbers were in the 3d quarter. GDP down at -.5% (annualized rate), which means it fell .125%. Hardly indicative of another Great Depression. It’s got a whole lot of dropping to do before we’re anywhere near Depression territory.
-7% rate this quarter (estimate by several major banks) is getting pretty close to that rate and most have similar #s for Q1. The only reason the estimates for 09 aren’t worse is most people assume we’re going to borrow $2-$3 trillion next year to borrow from future gdp. I think if Obama tries to borrow that much we’re likely to have a bond market dislocation.
Even if it is -7%, that still amounts to only 1-3/4% decline since we’re talking about only one quarter. Got another 31% to go until you match the Depression.
I don’t think we’ll go that low—I think it’ll drop 12-20% though which would be considered a depression unless we have severe fed gov’t bond market dislocation. I never said we’re going to have another GREAT depression. One reason any “recover” is going to be short lived even with a huge gov’t spending is the looming option arm/alt A resets that begin next year and continue and peak in 2011. Probably 70% will default after reset.
For the record, my prediction is 4 or 5% drop in GDP, max. And yes, I do think that CA and NY, and perhaps MA will default, although maybe not until after the recession is over, and possibly not at all if the federal government bails them out, which seems pretty likely.
More likely 90%....but then the mm is taking their own poll here so truth is not required nor reported.
I don’t believe one minute we will have anything nearly as bad as the GD. That being said...
Comparing stats 3-12 months after the start of this downturn (3 months after the 2008 stock market crash, 12 months after the dubious proclaimed start of the recession) to stats from 3 years or 9 years into the Great Depression (1932 or 1938 respectively) is nowhere near a valid comparison. Unemployment was lower in Dec 29 than it was in Dec 08, and GDP loss was pretty close.
--or maybe somewhere else because the BLS only has unemployment #s back to 1948 and that 12.5% set only goes to 1994. It could have been Census.gov because they have it back to 1890 using standard unemployment %'s (roughly half the new discouraged #s).
Using census plus bls gives us unemployment for the century, and doubling those %'s to get discouraged %s puts it at 50% in the '30's. Our 12.5% looks pretty good by comparison.
LOL government figures did not exclude “discouraged” until 1994 with Clinton. If you want to talk about what the name of the branch was it doesn’t matter.
The only way we end up with -4 or 5% drop is if we have no bond market dislocation AND Obama does $2 to $3 trillion in debt in 2009. If you want to call that a “non depression” which is just pull forward GDP then go ahead. All that means is an L shape 10 year recession ala Japan from 89-99 is more likely.
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