Michigan's delegates to be split between Romney and Santorum

various ^ | 2/29/12 | various

[goat granny]

bet detroit democrats went for romney...with cross over votes

[cripplecreek]

Those non candidates took nearly 30,000 votes.

[goat granny]

seems silly to me to list them all...wonder why they did that....

[cripplecreek]

I know Romney’s team was looking for crossovers. My sister in Livonia said they told her that they didn’t care if she’s a democrat as long as she was willing to help stop Santorum’s “extreme agenda”.

The results don’t fit the media narrative.

[Darren McCarty]

Who are the 524 clueless, deluded Michiganders who actually wasted their vote on Gary Johnson?

Dude....his name's Johnson. (beavis and butthead laugh)

[Vigilanteman]

Just for the heck of it, I ran the Cook PVI score on every Michigan congressional district, and here's what came up:

Romney won:
10th (R+5)
14th (D+34)
9th (D+2)
12th (D+12)
5th (D+11)
11th (even)
8th (D+2)
Summary: 3 safe D, 1 lean D, 1 toss-up, 2 lean R

Santorum won:
13th (D+31)
7th (R+2)
4th (R+3)
6th (even)
1st (R+3)
3rd (R+6)
2nd (R+7)
Summary: 1 safe D, 1 toss-up, 3 lean R, 2 safe R

There is something rather perverse about a system which would award the same two delegates for a district which the GOP has zero chance of carrying as for a GOP safe district. At most, one delegate should be awarded to the safe DemocRAT districts with the extra delegates thus generated to the safest GOP districts. You could use either the last congressional election results or the non-partisan Cook PVI score. Under this formula, districts 14, 12, 5 and 13 would each lose a delegate and an extra delegate would be awarded to districts 2, 3 and 10 with half a delegate to 1 and 4.

End result: Romney gets 12 + 2 for the statewide win or 14 total, Santorum gets 16. As far as splitting the statewide win vote, the rules seem pretty clear. The winner gets both delegates. Romney is clearly the statewide winner as the rules say nothing about splitting the two if the results are some undefined degree of close.

But the end results will be actually 16-14 in Romney's favor because the stupid system counts districts which the GOP has zero chance of winning as equal.

[cripplecreek]

Mitt-ercup did well in Oakland, home of the fake tea party and the same place where Ruth Johnson found 30,000 fraudulent ACORN provided voter registrations in 08.

[Beagle8U]

Rush talking about this now. Said it may wind up being Santorum 17, Mutt 13...if the last , too close to call district goes to Santorum.

[CharlesWayneCT]

If nobody wins 50%, the 2 statewide delegates are split proportionately, so they each get 1 delegate.

[Vigilanteman]

Do you have a link for that? I’m not being critical, just curious. The two conflicting links cited are from less than reliable liberal sources (NY Times and USA Today).

[Vigilanteman]

Not sure where Rush is getting that info as the only uncounted votes I am seeing are in Cass County, district 6, already recorded as a Santorum win.

He could be talking about absentees. Some states require that they arrive by election day (Pennsylvania), some only that they be postmarked be election day (Florida, North Dakota). Do you know the rule in Michigan?

[GracieOMalley]

Looks like another tie to me.

Santorum is alive and well.

Newt and Ron Paul, on the other hand.....FIZZLED!

[Yaelle]

Holy poop. It does look like the Obama logo.

[CharlesWayneCT]

Nobody knows exactly how they will assign the 2 delegates. The statewide would be assigned proportionately, and there would have been over a dozen of them. But Michigan is being penalized for when it held it's primary, so it lost a lot of delegates, and nobody knows how they will assign the few they can still send.

So some assume they'll just give them to the winner, others assume they will use the proportional rules. Remember that there is a separate rule that states before April 1 had to be proportional; some aren't obviously, and have been penalized for breaking that rule, others stuck with that rule but got penalized for breaking another rule.

It's kind of annoying how many states are throwing away half their delegates violating rules, but they clearly felt that having a "say" earlier was worth losing delegates.

This is where I usually go now to get rules; I hope they aren't making things up, they seem to have everything in order: The Green Papers - Michigan

Here is the relevant section of the law passed recently that moved the election forward:

The Michigan Republicans will bind 2 delegates to the candidate receiving the most votes in each CD and bind the remaining delegates propotionally according to the statewide vote with a 15% threshold.

They don't mention a "50%" rule for statewide. I think Georgia has a 50% rule, but it's by district, and will also do proportional for statewide. This seems to be the most common method of doing proportional; some statewide, and then winner-take-all by district. (Georgia is 2-1st/1-2nd by district, unless a candidate hits 50%).

Virginia has a 50% winner-take-all rule, and unfortunately with only 2 candidates on the ballot, it is likely Romney will get all the statewide delegates. We hope that Paul wins some of the congressional districts to take some delegates away.

[Beagle8U]

Rush didn’t mention the district that was too close to call, just that they were still counting it.

The two open delegates would be split, according to Rush, because no one got 50% of the vote.

Rush is seldom wrong, but I don’t know what he is basing that on.

Team Romney may be playing an ‘Iowa’ and the real results will be stalled until weeks later, making it look better for him going into super tues.

[Vigilanteman]

Thanks to both of you. Based on the link in post #34, I’m inclined to believe the statewide delegates will be split 1-1.

[Beagle8U]

If Rush is correct...the statewide delegates split 1-1, Mutt wins 6 districts, Santorum wins ( perhaps )8 districts, equals a 17-13 win for Santorum.

[grellis]

MICHIGAN PING LIST

Please freepmail me if you wish to be added or dropped from the mitten ping.

[Hot Tabasco]

bet detroit democrats went for romney...with cross over votes

I don't know if there was a plethora of Dems voting just to screw us over. After volleyball yesterday morning, I had lunch with one of my teammates, who is a Democrat and who was planning on voting along with his wife.

He definitely does not like Romney and seemed to prefer Gingrich. I told him since Gingrich didn't stand a ghost of a chance here in Michigan that he and his wife should vote for Santorum. That would help reduce the number of delegates that Romney was likely to get here and hopefully keep him in range for Gingrich for the remaining state primaries.....

As a side note, I have another friend whose family are democrats and they'll be voting for the Republican in November. You figure 10 less votes for the Dems and 10 more votes for the Repubs, that's a swing of 20 votes.........It's a good sign anyway

[justiceseeker93]

You could use either the last congressional election results or the non-partisan Cook PVI score.

Unfortunately, redistricting for this year would throw a big monkey wrench into your suggested formula. This year's MI GOP national conventional delegate allocation is based upon the new Michigan district map. (There was a loss of one district due to the state's loss of population in the 2010 - it was the only state, BTW, to lose population.) There never has been a congressional election run in these new districts. As for Cook PVI scores, I don't know if there have been any issued yet for the new districts.