Skip to comments.
Officials Fear That H7N9 Bird Flu Is Spreading From Person To Person
TBI ^
| 4-19-2013
| Jennifer Walsh
Posted on 04/19/2013 2:11:38 PM PDT by blam
click here to read article
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-20, 21-40, 41-45 next last
1
posted on
04/19/2013 2:11:38 PM PDT
by
blam
To: Smokin' Joe
Could this be a Black Swan event?
2
posted on
04/19/2013 2:12:26 PM PDT
by
blam
To: blam
Who keeps the “Bring out your dead” Ping List.
3
posted on
04/19/2013 2:13:03 PM PDT
by
BenLurkin
(This is not a statement of fact. It is either opinion or satire; or both)
To: blam; neverdem; ProtectOurFreedom; Mother Abigail; EBH; vetvetdoug; Smokin' Joe; Global2010; ...
Bring Out Your Dead
Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.
The purpose of the Bring Out Your Dead ping list (formerly the Ebola ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.
So far the false positive rate is 100%.
At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the Bring Out Your Dead threads will miss the beginning entirely.
*sigh* Such is life, and death...
4
posted on
04/19/2013 2:31:02 PM PDT
by
null and void
(Republicans create the tools of oppression and Democrats use them. Gun confiscation enables tyranny.)
To: BenLurkin
5
posted on
04/19/2013 2:31:53 PM PDT
by
null and void
(Republicans create the tools of oppression and Democrats use them. Gun confiscation enables tyranny.)
To: blam
We did that fear once already, it was boring.
6
posted on
04/19/2013 2:33:27 PM PDT
by
discostu
(Not just another moon faced assassin of joy.)
Tired Of FReepathons That Last Longer Than A Month?
We Are Too
Donate and End It In April
7
posted on
04/19/2013 2:40:17 PM PDT
by
DJ MacWoW
(My faith and politics cannot be separated)
To: null and void
Please add me to your Bringing out the Dead ping list.
8
posted on
04/19/2013 2:40:34 PM PDT
by
Teotwawki
(For a person to get a thing without paying for it, another must pay for it without getting it.)
To: null and void
9
posted on
04/19/2013 2:49:19 PM PDT
by
BenLurkin
(This is not a statement of fact. It is either opinion or satire; or both)
To: Teotwawki
10
posted on
04/19/2013 3:00:27 PM PDT
by
null and void
(Republicans create the tools of oppression and Democrats use them. Gun confiscation enables tyranny.)
To: BenLurkin
11
posted on
04/19/2013 3:02:13 PM PDT
by
null and void
(Republicans create the tools of oppression and Democrats use them. Gun confiscation enables tyranny.)
To: DJ MacWoW
12
posted on
04/19/2013 3:35:38 PM PDT
by
nomad
To: nomad
13
posted on
04/19/2013 4:02:30 PM PDT
by
DJ MacWoW
(My faith and politics cannot be separated)
To: blam
Typically, influenza has about a two week incubation period, which results in the epidemic coming in deceptive “waves”.
As an idealized example, “patient zero” lives in a small, rural town. By the time he shows his first symptoms, he has already directly and indirectly infected perhaps a dozen people. And the two week clock begins for them when they are infected, so there is a pause. This is “iteration one”.
During this pause, they are infecting much of the rest of the town, and the people they infect are “iteration two.”
By the time the first iteration group are beginning to show systems, the disease has likely already spread to neighboring towns.
By the time the town is recognized as “town zero”, the disease has spread throughout their region, and is on the gateway to becoming national, then international.
And it is all interspersed with pauses. If the regional or national government responds quickly, establishing a quarantine around the town, it *appears* that they have stopped the spread, but it is already far beyond their quarantine line.
To: blam
Logical, dreadfully literal reply: Not really unexpected. Sooner or later, some bug will get traction, become an epidemic, and ding the world population curve. It is not without recorded precedent, and there may have been other events less well recorded. SE Asia seems to be the main spawning ground for new flu bugs. If I had to bet on someplace to start a civilization-altering pandemic (other than a weapons lab), I'd bet on China.
15
posted on
04/19/2013 10:13:31 PM PDT
by
Smokin' Joe
(How often God must weep at humans' folly. Stand fast. God knows what He is doing)
To: 2ndreconmarine; Fitzcarraldo; Covenantor; Mother Abigail; EBH; Dog Gone; ...
Ping... (Thanks, blam and nully!
16
posted on
04/19/2013 10:17:28 PM PDT
by
Smokin' Joe
(How often God must weep at humans' folly. Stand fast. God knows what He is doing)
To: Smokin' Joe
To: Alamo-Girl
You’re Welcome, Alamo-Girl!
18
posted on
04/19/2013 10:35:34 PM PDT
by
Smokin' Joe
(How often God must weep at humans' folly. Stand fast. God knows what He is doing)
To: Smokin' Joe
"If I had to bet on someplace to start a civilization-altering pandemic (other than a weapons lab), I'd bet on China. " Ditto.
They live with their animals.
19
posted on
04/19/2013 10:56:43 PM PDT
by
blam
To: discostu
We did that fear once already, it was boring. Such is the problem of public health officials.
No matter what we try to predict--whether it's earthquakes, volcanoes, or the next highly lethal and contagious pandemic--we're stuck with the reality that we simply cannot see the future.
As pandemics go, the 2009 one was only slightly more deadly than seasonal flu, which kills tens of thousands of people in the US every year. So it was seen as not very serious.
This flu, H7N9, is far more deadly. But it does not seem to be contagious. The other avian flu, H5N1, is even more deadly but also not contagious. We don't know if those would remain as deadly if they became contagious.
Meanwhile, we're doing our best. It's difficult. As 1918 showed us, pandemics can be devastating. At least we got SARS right, and stopped the deadly disease before it spread very far.
20
posted on
04/20/2013 12:19:41 AM PDT
by
exDemMom
(Now that I've finally accepted that I'm living a bad hair life, I'm more at peace with the world.)
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-20, 21-40, 41-45 next last
Disclaimer:
Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual
posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its
management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the
exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson