GOP Dilemma: Draw New Voters Without Irking Base

AP ^ | May 27, 2013 | AP, via WMAL.com

[muawiyah]

Get this correctly next time ~ George Bush had 64 million voters. McCain had just under 60 million voters and Romney had just over 60 million voters.

During that period a good 4 million Republican voters died. Somebody forgot to replace them!

[kabar]

We can come up with all kinds of reasons as to why Romney lost. Yes, there was some voter fraud. Yes, some conservatives may not have shown up, but how many other voters did show up because of Romney. Obama received 3.5 million less votes in 2012 than he did in 2008. Romney received 1 million more votes than McCain did in 2008. Still Obama won handily.

You are ignoring the massive demographic changes going on in this country. The U.S. adds one international migrant (net) every 36 seconds. Immigrants account for one in 8 U.S. residents, the highest level in more than 90 years. In 1970 it was one in 21; in 1980 it was one in 16; and in 1990 it was one in 13. In a decade, it will be one in 7, the highest it has been in our history. And by 2050, one in 5 residents of the U.S. will be foreign-born.

In VA we made an all out effort to get out the vote. Romney received 100,000 more votes than McCain compared to Obama receiving just 12,000 more votes than he received in 2008. It was still not enough due to the changing demographics of the state. In Fairfax County, the largest county in the state, 30% of the residents are now foreign born. Obama won the county by 110,000 in 2008 and by 90,000 in 2012. We had a massive get out the vote effort. It still fell short. VA is now a purple state having gone Dem over the past two Presidential elections after 40 years of voting Rep.

Since the 1965 Immigration Act, our pro-population growth immigration policies have fueled major demographic changes in a very short period of time. In 1970, non-Hispanic whites comprised 89 percent of the population; today they are 66 percent; and by 2042, they will be 50 percent. The Democrats, under the banner of multiculturalism and diversity, have forged a political coalition that depends on individuals coalescing around racial and ethnic identities rather than the issues. The continuing and increasing flow of minority immigrants, mostly poor and uneducated, provides a natural constituency for the Democrats, which see them as their principal source of political power.

Look to England and see what is going on there.

We are in worse shape than the UK. And at least in the UK, the three major parties have agreed to reduce immigration levels. Here, we have the Dems aided by some Reps pushing increasing legal immigration by 50% and an amnesty that will legalize 11 or 20 million lawbreakers and invite in another 33 million of their relatives thru chain migration, i.e., family reunification(Gang of 8 bill). And yet some of our conservative talking heads in the media call Rubio a rock-ribbed conservative.

Here is one of the most chilling videos you will ever see as Eliseo Medina, Executive Director of the SEIU, describes in 2009 what an amnesty will do for the progressives. The GOP is bent on political suicide and they will take the rest of the country down with them.

[kabar]

What exit polls are you talking about? Are you asserting that the CNN exit poll only used Hawaii?

[kabar]

Fourth, stop the amnesty nonsense and quit trying to legalize millions of border jumpers (who would/do vote Democrat when they can).

And let's get real about legal immigration. Every ten years we have what amounts to an amnesty. With 1.2 million LEGAL IMMIGRANTS ENTERING ANNUALLY, they will be able to vote eventually and two thirds of them will vote Dem. Illegal immigration is the shiny little bauble that distracts us from the real game changer--legal immigration. The status quo will make the Dems the permanent majority party. Amnesty just hastens the process.

[muawiyah]

The base showed up in 2010 at 75% the strength it had shown in 2008. The Democrats lost because only 55% of their voters showed up.

The cold hard facts are that we had a good 4 million voters die off between 2004 and 2008, and another 4 million die off between 2008 and 2012.

That's a drop of 8 million from George Bush's last election. At the same time Romney got about a million more than McCain, which means we added 5 million voters to the number we had in 2008!

Obama's forces of evil faced a comparable situation due to death and disability of so many Baby Boom voters.

People telling you that America is running out of white people, or that Conservatives stayed home are either poor analysts, or they never heard of the normal death rate, or they want you to feel despondent and give up.

[EternalVigilance]

The real question they’re asking themselves:

“How can we continue to compromise all principle without appearing to do so?”

[MissMagnolia]

Hard to line up new ‘Republicans’ when the old Republicans look/act a lot like Democraps! :-)

Seriously, I do get your point.

[muawiyah]

The problem is the density of the population ~ exit polls do not poll everyone, nor are they set up to target populations ~ the result is if you wanted to poll East Asians you set up at a couple of polling stations in Honolulu county.

See how IRS was able to target the TEAParty by selecting a couple of key words to use to select applications. Think of exit polling the same way. A key word would be Hawaii. Another key word would be Chicago, another Philadelphia ~ and so on.

South Asians are even more difficult to target that way because they tend to be much more integrated than the East Asians. Still, there aren't really enough of either to make it possible to run a statistically valid exit poll to determine their preferences.

[muawiyah]

American history shows that the immigrant populations tended to end up affiliated with the party OUT OF POWER simply because the party in power owed them nothing and didn't let them get into positions of party authority, nor run as candidates ~ beyond a token here or there.

Democrats ~ clustered in Eastern cities, controlling city councils and urban county councils ~ haven't, to my knowledge, let in very many foreigners as even spokespeople.

[muawiyah]

Father Time will take care of the RINO crowd ~ except where the two coalition parties are exceedingly closely divided ~ e.g. Florida. I think our RINO Charlie Crist took about 1.5 million Republicrat voters with him!

That puts that state in play even in outyear elections.

We now understand we aren't really ahead of the game with Rubio.

Florida is one of the 5 biggest states that seem to control everything. California, Texas, Forida, New York and either Illinois or Pennsylvania. We have unquestioned control in only one of them.

[muawiyah]

Did you realize that over the last 30 years UK has had the greatest level of emigration in its history WITH MOST THAT heading for the United States.

They can tell you who is in worse shape.

[muawiyah]

Frankly, it is possible most of the Rockefeller crowd died or became disabled ~ they weren’t making any more of them after the Ford Administration!

[AFret.]

The base is irked.

---

Livid is a more descriptive word. Everyone I know is fed up with the gop for allowing the dems to force this fraud upon our country and will never vote again. We are all in our late 50’s early 60’s and are sincere in our belief that no matter what we do...it is over.

[kabar]

The problem is the density of the population ~ exit polls do not poll everyone, nor are they set up to target populations ~ the result is if you wanted to poll East Asians you set up at a couple of polling stations in Honolulu county.

This is not what happened with the CNN exit polls. The real problem is that the GOP doesn't want to accept reality and then deal with it. The Reps problem is changing demographics fueled by misguided immigration policies. Political correctness and the delusion that they can somehow attract the majority of minorities and immigrants to vote GOP have prevented them from taking the necessary actions to address these problems. It is much the same way that Obama fails to identify radical Islamic fundamentalism as our enemy.

South Asians are even more difficult to target that way because they tend to be much more integrated than the East Asians. Still, there aren't really enough of either to make it possible to run a statistically valid exit poll to determine their preferences.

I can tell you from personal experience here in Fairfax County where there is a sizable population of both, they vote overwhelmingly Dem--as do all minorities and immigrants.

[grania]

demography is destiny

Then isn't GWB the real villian here? He's an open borders, love-those-Mexicans nut. If he'd gone with the conservative flow and sealed that darn border and demanded EVerify that would've happened. Logic after 911 would've been to send home everyone in the country illegally....instead we've become the new Chechynan homeland.

I really believe that the 'pubs can do it with a message for constitutional conservatives. But they'll have to stop being the Cheap Labor Party and they'll have to care more about securing our southern border than about Afghanistan's.

[kabar]

American history shows that the immigrant populations tended to end up affiliated with the party OUT OF POWER simply because the party in power owed them nothing and didn't let them get into positions of party authority, nor run as candidates ~ beyond a token here or there.

I don't know what history you have been reading, but immigrants in the 19th, 20th, and 21st century associate primarily with the Dems who control the big city political machines. They are the party of free stuff and unions.

Immigration, Political Realignment, and the Demise of Republican Political Prospects

Democrats ~ clustered in Eastern cities, controlling city councils and urban county councils ~ haven't, to my knowledge, let in very many foreigners as even spokespeople.

LOL. Hell, in places like Hartford, CT they are allowing the illegals to vote in municipal elections. Take a look who is running Arlington County. Your knowledge is indeed limited.

[muawiyah]

I lived in Arlington county for many years ~ it was Democrat when I got here ~ it stayed Democrat ~ it’s still Democrat ~ very little change in that cold hard fact.

[muawiyah]

Hartford CT is as Democrat now as it ever has been, but you’ll find that back before the 1980s people didn’t even need to go to the polls to vote ~ the Democrats voted for them and even if they were dead people living on Long Island ~ what a bunch eh!

[Jim Noble]

a dilemma that's easier to describe than to solve: How can it broaden its appeal to up-for-grabs voters without alienating its conservative base?

Simple.

Go white, go Right, or go home.

[muawiyah]

I probably know most of them personally and they are old Congress party voters from India and they equate the Democrats with Congress.

They are on a fool's errand politically since the white/black Democrat crowd around here are NOT going to ever give any of them a serious position in the party structure.