Posted on 03/05/2016 3:39:25 PM PST by Morgana
Polls for Kentucky and Louisiana:
KY +13 for Trump
LA +15 for Trump
Actual results (as of now):
KY +4 for Trump
LA +5 for Trump
The pollsters have again been off in regards to Trump’s levels of support.
Tomorrow I’ll do a more detailed look at all of the races so far and see if there is a clear pattern.
Thanks!!!
The more people see the picture gets a little clearer!!
Have enjoyed following Nate Silver [and 538.com] this evening. Here is his summary of the night’s events:
NATE SILVER 11:33 PM
Ted Cruz Won Semi-Super Saturday
That’s a wrap for us, folks. We’ll have more analysis of tonight’s results in the days ahead, but here’s how I’d score the evening relative to expectations on the GOP side. I mean that in a more precise way than when the term “expectations” is usually invoked. Specifically, I mean that if you’d drawn up a list of plausible outcomes this morning and ranked them from best (10) to worst (0) for each candidate, how would candidates fare by that measure?
Ted Cruz — 9 out of 10. Huge win in Kansas, unexpected win in Maine, and unexpectedly close to Trump in Louisiana, with results suggesting he might even have won if not for early votes. Cruz’s loss in Kentucky was also narrow — he came much closer to Trump, for example, than he did in Tennessee on Super Tuesday. Not quite a “best case scenario” but not more than one step removed from it.
Donald Trump — 2 out of 10. You could equivocate by saying Trump performs poorly in caucuses, and there aren’t all that many of them left, but the huge split in the election day versus early vote in Louisiana suggests that he’s encountering serious problems, perhaps the most serious since voting started on Feb. 1. It also appears as though Cruz will pick up more delegates than Trump did from the night.
Marco Rubio — 1 out of 10. Just 17 percent of the vote in Kansas, 17 percent in Kentucky, 11 percent in Louisiana (with a huge drop-off from the early vote to election day votes) and 9 percent in Maine. Not. Good. He’ll presumably hang on until Florida on March 15 and a win there would still be a big deal, but he needs to gain votes to do that and right now he’s losing them instead.
John Kasich — 4 out of 10. We thought he’d do a little better in Maine. His results in Kentucky in counties that border Ohio were solid but not stellar. He’s basically running as a one-state spoiler candidate at this point, although the fallout from some of the other developments (like Rubio’s bad evening) could create opportunities for him in the long run. Still, all of those opportunities would seem to involve a contested convention and it’s not clear why he’d emerge as the choice from such an event.
The results are being tampered with in order to give Cruz supposed momentum.
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