Posted on 03/23/2016 10:09:09 AM PDT by Jeff Head
Only the 14 and 3 delegates mentioned in your notes are pledged to the statewide winner. If Trump wins PA, only those 17 will be allocated. The other 54 will go to the convention completely unbound. In 1980, Bush senior win the primary, but Reagan got most if the delegates.
Here’s a good article.
Pennsylvania has 71 delegates not 17.
California is a winner take all state and Trump has a big lead there.
Maryland is also a winner take all state and Trump is winning there too.
Based on the missing Pennsylvania delegates and your wrong assumption on the California delegates allocation, Trump has more than the 30 short.
Well, the gop is obviously trying to force this into a convention. They’re willing to screw the voters and lose the presidency to the hag. All in an attempt to retain power for their minions. But they fail to consider one little problem: scorched earth.
Scorched earth in this context is where millions of pissed off Trump supporters show up at the general and vote against all down ticket republicans. The gop not only loses the presidency as intended, it also loses a healthy amount down ticket.
I think the gop would be better off simply nominating the candidate who gets the most delegates. But if they really want to play for all the marbles and lose badly, then go for it.
“Pennsylvania has 71 delegates not 17.”
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Nice catch! Nate’s boys are wrong.
71-17 = 54 more delegates in PA changes everything.
Well done.
If the delegates cannot agree on Trump or Cruz after multiple ballots, I’d take Gingrich, Perry, Jindal, or Walker. (In no particular order.)
Do you think he can get that? I’m not sure what states coming up he can get a majority of delegates, unless their caucuses...Montana?
Well, the article seems to be saying the voters will be picking the 54. It seems to at least imply to me that the 54 don’t HAVE to commit but maybe MAY commit at the April 26 Primary.
Looks like the same is true with Colorado and Wyoming - the delegates choose whether to commit or remain unbound going into the convention.
Nothing in the Wisconsin polling (admittedly a month out of date) makes me think Trump has this state in the bag.
Actually, that has been his entire campaign strategy for the past couple of months
Neither the first nor the last part of your statement is true. California allocates delegates by congressional district winner. Trump looks to be hanging on to a 5% lead over Cruz with Rubio and Kasich Still included in the poll. I doubt Trump wins CA.
Apparently we are both wrong:
http://blog.constitutioncenter.org/2016/03/the-gop-nomination-math-confusing-and-complicated/
States like Pennsylvania and California, with their huge delegate slates, are considered winner-take-all elections with a catch. In California, there are 53 Congressional districts, each with three votes. The candidate with the most votes within that district gets its three votes. So if Trump wins 25 districts and Cruz wins 25 districts, each gets 75 delegates.
In Pennsylvania, there is a loophole primary, where a proxies for the candidates run in each Congressional district. But 17 of the state’s 71 delegates go to the winner of the state-wide vote.
And in Trump’s home state, New York, its delegates are part of a winner-take-most process. Of the state’s 95 delegates, 81 are selected in 27 Congressional districts. In each district, if a candidate gets more than 50 percent of the vote, he gets all three votes; if not, the top candidate gets two votes, and second-place finisher gets one vote.
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
So every state is different.
“Perhaps Trump will agree to be Cruz’s Vice President and their combined effort will carry the day.”
Perhaps Ronald Reagan will agree to be George HW Bush’s VP.
Sounds about as logical as what you just said.
*******************************************
That deal may just go down!
You continue the race to insure the front runner doesn’t trip over his own feet.
Trump also won Missouri. It’s not orange on your map.
Trump has made this personal, and actually he has from the start- All the "Lyin Ted" bullsh#t, and everything else-Not gonna happen, people might wake up, or it will go to the convention.
Then again Trump has a good chance of getting enough delegates anyway- which IMO still means a loss in the general election.
There is NO WAY Trump will be able to unite the party to support him in November.
And I wonder how much of his own money is he going to spend to run against Hillary? Good luck with getting donations.
In either case Hillary wins :(
“That deal may just go down!”
What deal? Trump agreeing to run as Ted’s VP? After having won a greater share of the people’s votes, and after having been a world class executive for four decades?
Not a chance in Hades, my friend.
Absolutely true. They will stab him in the back and install John Kaisiche or Paul Ryan. Cruz knows this but figures he can prevail over GOPe back stabbers.
And how has that worked for him worked for him so far? They still blame Cruz for the last government shutdown, and the one thing the establishment does well is pay back those who cross them.
-PJ
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.