Posted on 03/23/2016 10:09:09 AM PDT by Jeff Head
An interesting but poorly executed analysis at 538 predicts Trump to end at 1208, short of 1237.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-most-important-states-on-trumps-path-to-1237-delegates/
But they short-change him “big league” in NY, (by at least 10), PA (by at least 30), and CA (by at least 10). Who knows where else they hose him?
Trump should end up comfortably over 1237. Let’s not get all wobbly. The Uniparty and the media are using every trick and illusion to make Trump look beatable. He’s not. IMHO. LOL.
I heard Hillary! was deep in Mary Anna’s trench...
Thank you, I’ll be here all week.
I think the idea was to make the offer when, between the two of them, they have 1237. That would be soon, they are almost there...
Although, it would also depend on what Cruz’s polls are telling him in New York and California.
As you say, if Trump doesn’t need his delegates, he has no leverage. That is the poker-game aspect of it. His leverage goes up the more delegates he has, unless Trump puts it together another way in which case he has no leverage at all numerically. Of course both men have some leverage even at the end, since the winner needs his opponent’s partisans to willingly give their support. To get that he almost needs his opponent’s public blessing. That would be true whichever man comes out on top.
Its more true if Cruz comes out on top. If Trump wins, having more delegates, the “losers” can fall in line without much heartburn. If Cruz comes out on top by forming a coalition, there will be hard feelings that might prevent Trump supporters from willingly supporting him. In that case, even if Cruz has the votes, Trump has almost a veto power since without his blessing a significant number of his supporters might simply sit it out, which would doom Cruz’s campaign for November.
This is why, though I prefer Cruz, I can’t see how he overcomes this hurdle. I think its Trump or Trump.
That’s not the way I read it. True, some people are quoted as saying the system gives primary voters a choice, because they can elect the delegates who promise to vote for their preferred candidate. The problem with that theory is that when the delegates are elected there is no information about which candidate they would vote for at the convention.
I am pretty sure that when the PA primary results are known, only the 17 bound delegates will be awarded. The other 54 will remain truly unbound, and free to vote for whomever they wish at the convention. These 54 will not count toward the 1237 benchmark.
As I have said, they may feel pressure to vote for Trump if he was the clear winner of the state. I hope so.
Ok, that makes sense. I would have been ok with either guy, or any number of others like Walker, Paul, or even Jindal. But I think we’re reaching a point where it’s for the benefit of everyone if we start to coalesce behind the nominee now and go after Hillary.
That’s why I find the hardcore Cruz people so misguided. They’re clearly aiming for a brokered convention, which guarantees a Hillary presidency. I really think Cruz is getting advice from a number of people who aren’t interested in what’s best for the country, the Republican Party, or even Cruz. They’re using him to advance their agenda (I.e. Bush, Graham, etc)
Delegates allocated by the process so far: 1596
Trump delegates: 755 (I think the 1 difference is a shift in Missouri allocation)
47.31%
-PJ
You say there are 763 delegates left. I might be missing something but my count is 944. Can you explain how you get to 763?
Maybe so with PA. So complicated.
Anyway it seems clear from the RCP notes that the delegates from CO and WY can choose to be bound or unbound.
“Colorado1, Wyoming1
Delegates in Colorado are selected through a process that starts with the March 1st caucuses and culminates at the state convention on April 9th. Colorado Delegates can go to the national convention as unbound or bound to a candidate. The Wyoming precinct caucuses on March 1st do not bind any delegates, but they start a delegate selection process that culminates at the state convention on April 14-16. Delegates from Wyoming can be bound or unbound.”
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/republican_delegate_count.html
1596 - your allocated delegates
1361 - my allocated delegates
235 - difference.
My 1361 allocated delegates come from FQH as of 3/22/16:
463 Cruz
144 Kasich
754 Trump
31 Uncommitted
4 Bush
9 Carson
1 Fiorina
1 Huckabee
1 Paul
167 Rubio
1361 Total Allocated
http://frontloading.blogspot.com/p/2016-republican.html
Thanks for the info. That was what I thought would be the case.
“Wisconsin is an open primary state. Trump has won 100% of those states except Cruz’s home state, and Trump is leading in the polls for the state.”
I do certainly hope this might be case! but Freeper John Valentine has older data that may diminish my optimism!
I guess the best thing I can do for my peace of mind is just hold vigil for our nation and hope that our Father really DOES (as I believe) have control everything and I don’t have to worry! But this roller ride is not an easy one! LOL!
Your figures are WRONG.
There are currently 944 delegates still left.
Cruz needs 772 out of 944, which is 82%
Trump needs 498 out of 944, which is 53%.
Sorry, the fat lady has not sung yet.
This guys numbers are erroneous. Whether intentional or not, there are actually still 944 delegates remaining in the upcoming states. So, more than enough to drag the race out into June. Cruz and Trump are both still in this thing.
Actually 944. Not sure where the author got his info, but... http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/delegate-count-tracker
There are actually still 944 delegates remaining. http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/delegate-count-tracker
Mormons in Utah do vote in lock-step, the closer to SLC the more they listen to their leaders. Mormons are also open border people so they were not going to support Trump before all the hoop-la from Beck and Romney.
Jeff Trump WILL have the delegates in hand at the convention!!! I just am astounded at all of this hype about contested convention!!! Romney had less delegates at this time in 2012 and not a peep about contested convention!!! This conversation and bickering is just ridiculous Trump WILL have the delegates!!!
“Romney had less delegates at this time in 2012 and not a peep about contested convention!!!”
Romney didn’t have Cruz nipping at his heeels.
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