Cruz is trying to “win” by sticking his foot out and tripping the front-runner.
Hermes a dirty little secret. Even if it goes to a convention Trump is going to win. Imagine you go to the convention needing 50 votes. There is a pool of almost 300 delegates that are unbound to pull from. They have to steal it from him, it’s the only way they’ll win
Cruz cannot get to 1237 so Mark Levin seems all in for a contested convention now. smh.
https://twitter.com/marklevinshow/status/712631467218587649
Another piece of the analysis that may not go as planned for Trump is NY. Each Congressional District has 3 delegates and Trump needs 50%+ in each District to get all 3. He may get 50%+ state-wide, which would give him 14 at-large delegates. But, I can’t imagine he gets 50%+ in every congressional district. I think it is reasonable to expect Trump may get 80 of the 95 NY Delegates (i.e., he gets 49% or less in 15 districts).
I think that the entire rationale for Kasich staying in the race is to help prevent Trump from getting 50%+ across all of these NY Congressional Districts and perhaps in some of the other proportional States that turn into winner-take-all if one candidate gets >50% .
Imagine the ads.
Hello, I'm Ted Cruz, candidate for the Republican Presidential Nominee, and I'm NOT Donald Trump.
Plus also any time there is a terror attack, it is going to help Mr. Trump bigtime.
I did the same thing at 5am today. I did diferently. I see 839 left to get Cruz needing 772 - Trump needing 498. I see Trump with every delegate in NY CT RI WV and NJ for 227 more with Trump only needing 271 from ND WI DE MD PA IN NE OR WA CA MT NM SD. EZ Peezy. It’s over and Cruz is being used as a tool. More details if you want to chat about it.
Thank you!
How does Limbaugh still claim that Cruz can win? Cruz is obviously only trying to stop Trump. It is the strategy of the Sea Island globalist clique.
bttt - thanks!
The caucus invites fraud. Read the article from the Utah voter on FR. Why should we the people stand for this? Voters did not line up for Cruz, why should Trump be cheated? Why should voters stand to be disenfranchised?????
@mitchellvii @HouseCracka
Cruz has won 7 caucus states.
1 mixed caucus/primary (TX)
Just 1 full primary state (OK)
Yeah, that's a pattern.— Angelfire (@Angelfi81906197) March 23, 2016
Good analysis.
Cruz's only hope now is to make common cause with Rubio or Kasich.
Kasich is more likely to go with Trump, which means Rubio is his only chance. And if Kasich sides with Trump, even that's not enough.
There is a further problem; if he puts together a winning coalition, he still needs angry Trump supporters to vote for him in November, which means he still needs the support of the very man he just defeated.
Which means Trump is still in the catbird seat.
So I agree with your solution:
As soon as your and Trump's combined total of delegates surpasses the 1237 number, endorse Trump and throw in with him.
Its over. Now its just about getting the best possible deal.
It’s definitely time for Cruz to withdraw.
Cruz and Kasick need to drop out then. At this point, they’re just pawns of the leftists who will use them to create chaos in our convention.
Great analysis Jeff
add in Pa. wta, 71 delegates if I’m not mistaken.
Thank you for putting all of this together, Jeff. My brain was hurting today crunching numbers. :-)
Wyoming alone has 14 delegates that have not yet been allocated, and Cruz won 2/3 of the vote there.
Other States also have delegates who have not yet been committed, due the varied State rules.
So Cruz is not yet mathematically blocked, but it is getting close, and is most likely.
Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio were suppose to split the “conservative” vote. Jeb Bush was suppose to run up the middle. Trump entered the race and took the middle away from Bush.
Ask yourself why did Cruz only open an office in FL a week before the primary? Why did his campaign only spend a thosand dollars TOTAL in MI. Why does he mostly win in caucus states and not many primaries?
Jen was suppose to win FLA and MI. He was going to win all the caucuses and knock Rubio an Cruz out on Super Tuesday.
Now all they have is Cruz to do thier bidding. The problem is, he has to run against his conservative value image in order to bring Trump down.
He may win some Midwest states, but it is highly unlikely he will stop Trump from getting to 1237.
I guess they feel they don’t have anything to lose. To bad for Ted though. He will be the biggest loser if his current path continues.