Good analysis.
After their COMBINED total is over the threshold, Cruz should ask to meet with Trump, and they should meet over several days... neither one of them commenting on what is discussed...
Then after 3 days of private, closed door meetings (I don’t care if they go swimming and play pool and drink beer all day) the media will be nearly turning blue holding their breath in anticipation to find out what is going on, they should merge together and announce a coalition.
Trump can (and should) say “you never learn anything new if you only listen to people who always agree with you” and announce that he thinks Cruz will be a nice sounding board for CONSERVATIVE ideas, and even though they have had differences, they have decided to put them aside and work together for the benefit of THE COUNTRY- not each others political careers. And add “I’ve played hardball with Ted and he stood up to it and is still standing...” - etc etc...
This will have the media tied up in knots for days speculating and then analyzing the outcome for another few days and all the free publicity it will generate- hilLIARy will be in panic mode trying to get noticed.
...
THEN go after hilLIARy together on her CRINIMAL activity, focusing on why she is not yet in jail over and over and over and over and over....
...
The ONLY thing that worries me about hilLIARy is that she might get indicted 3 months before the election and have to drop out and they pick some young and energetic thing and give him 24/7 fawning media coverage and we end up with what happened in Canada where the village idiot son of Pierre Trudeau and his p***y flashing wife came on the scene 3 months before the election and won it.
When Romney endorsed Cruz, he essentially said that Cruz could not really win the nomination, just vote for him to block Trump from getting the required 1237.
Cruz knows he can’t win out right, but he is more than willing to carry the water of the establishment, hoping for some kind of reward. He probably will get their backing for his Senate re-election campaign, but if he thinks they will hand him the nomination, he’s delusional.
But that's not likely to happen. The demographics in Arizona were far more favorable last night. To predict where Wisconsin goes, one only need to look at the states with the most comparable GOP demographics. Those states are Michigan and Illinois.
Cruz has a decent chance to win the following remaining states only-- both Dakotas, Montana and Nebraska. That's it.
If the "stop Trump" sentiment is stronger than the "let's concentrate on beating Hillary" sentiment, then you might possibly throw New Mexico and Indiana into that group. But even if Cruz wins all six, Trump will still clinch a majority by California.
Cruz should fight for every vote he can win and let the chips fall where they may. Why is it that the trumpkins who say their guy is such a YUGE WINNER always wants everybody else to quit? Winners take on all comers and win on the field, not by having the opposition forfeit the game. If he can win by amassing enough delegates good for him, we’ll all back him. But if needs others to drop out to win then he is not a winner in my book.
Do you think Trump’s friend Hillary will quit giving him the WH?
Jeff, a well-reasoned post, but, unfortunately, I am afraid that Cruz has talked himself into a corner that his arrogance and ego will not allow him to back out of.
I hope I am wrong!
Numbers based on the current allocations at Thegreenpapers.com
‘hard’ delegates
Trump 752
Cruz 463
Kasich 144
That puts Trump 289 ahead of Cruz with 893 delegates available in remaining states.
Trump needs 485 of those of those 893.
Cruz needs 774 of those 893.
Kasich is numberically out of the race, as he needs 1093 delegates with only 893 remaining. He is short by 200 delegates, even if he wins 100% of all remaining states/delegates.
So Ted Cruz is just like John Kasich. Tired politician with too much ego to get out
944 delegates remain available.
Ted will not likely be mathematically eliminated until after NY.
If Trump falls short...he false short.
And after he insulted so many people hell have nobody to blame but himself if a better qualified candidate is chosen at the convention.
Sorry Jeff. Cruz isn’t going anywhere. I’m speechless at the person he has become...or always was. The bloom is off the rose.
Well, the gop is obviously trying to force this into a convention. They’re willing to screw the voters and lose the presidency to the hag. All in an attempt to retain power for their minions. But they fail to consider one little problem: scorched earth.
Scorched earth in this context is where millions of pissed off Trump supporters show up at the general and vote against all down ticket republicans. The gop not only loses the presidency as intended, it also loses a healthy amount down ticket.
I think the gop would be better off simply nominating the candidate who gets the most delegates. But if they really want to play for all the marbles and lose badly, then go for it.
Trump also won Missouri. It’s not orange on your map.
Trump has made this personal, and actually he has from the start- All the "Lyin Ted" bullsh#t, and everything else-Not gonna happen, people might wake up, or it will go to the convention.
Then again Trump has a good chance of getting enough delegates anyway- which IMO still means a loss in the general election.
There is NO WAY Trump will be able to unite the party to support him in November.
And I wonder how much of his own money is he going to spend to run against Hillary? Good luck with getting donations.
In either case Hillary wins :(
Absolutely true. They will stab him in the back and install John Kaisiche or Paul Ryan. Cruz knows this but figures he can prevail over GOPe back stabbers.
You say there are 763 delegates left. I might be missing something but my count is 944. Can you explain how you get to 763?
Your figures are WRONG.
There are currently 944 delegates still left.
Cruz needs 772 out of 944, which is 82%
Trump needs 498 out of 944, which is 53%.
Sorry, the fat lady has not sung yet.
Must email this to myself.
: )