Posted on 04/12/2018 11:29:05 AM PDT by reaganaut1
China was widely considered a beneficiary of Trump’s decision to withdraw the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade pact....
this is not the first time Trump has hinted at a change of heart on the agreement. “I would do TPP if we were able to make a substantially better deal,” he said in an interview with CNBC in January.
Which brings us back to the original question, where is the incentive for the other countries to renegotiate?
I think that there is no doubt that the TPP with the U.S. was more of a disadvantage to China than TPP without the U.S. But not having the U.S. as a member doesn't weaken the TPP benefits to the member states.
The total combined gross domestic product of the new CPTPP would be $13.5 trillion or 13.4% of global GDP... significantly less than the TPP’s combined $28 trillion and 36% of global GDP.
The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) totals about $20 trillion; the European Union $19 trillion; South America’s Mercosur $3.5 trillion; the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Free Trade Area (AFTA) $2.5 trillion; and the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMSEA) $655 billion. Even though it is smaller than it was, the CPTPP is clearly one of the largest trading agreements.
When Trump withdrew from the TPP he also withdrew two of the most controversial provisions for which the United States had been advocating. One of the most ridiculed provisions in the TPP, the investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) provision, has been scaled back while a government’s right to regulate its markets has been afforded increased protections. This was only possible after the United States withdrew from the deal: U.S. companies are the most frequent users of the measure, which allows companies to sue foreign governments over arduous regulations.
Another key provision the United States pushed for that has fallen to the side is the extension of copyright, or intellectual property, protections. Washington had negotiated for copyright to exist for the author’s lifetime plus an additional 70 years. While this is standard in the United States, it is not in the other TPP members, and with Washington out of the deal, copyright lengths will be shorter.
The removal of these two provisions highlights what happens when the United States is not involved in regional affairs.
If it is fair trade, and that was the reason that the current tPP was rejected.
We are the big prize, and the other members might very well make concessions to get us to join them.
And without us, the TPP is hollow.
They made concessions for the U.S. to begin with and we walked out. I doubt they're going to fall for that again.
Other countries don't seem to think so. The eleven members are moving ahead and there are seven or eight who want to join.
I doubt TPP will even survive without the US.
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