Posted on 08/18/2018 6:20:39 PM PDT by 11th_VA
P.S. the GOP can produce a Nov red wave if they will cut spending materially so we have a smaller federal government and more freedom for people as a result.
“That decision is very much informed by 2016,” Salvanto said.
A tracking poll sets up a panel of thousands of voters and returns to them repeatedly over months...
In 2016, only two major surveys’ final predictions foresaw a Trump victory. Both of them — from the LA Times/USC and IBD/TIPP — were tracking polls.
The secret sauce.
Negative media coverage actually has the potential to drive GOP turnout to higher-than-average levels in November.
Hoist with their own petard.
The fat azz was a disaster from deplorables to falling down ..
This —> “Negative media coverage actually has the potential to drive GOP turnout to higher-than-average levels in November. “Among Republicans, Trump’s biggest backers feel driven to come to his defense,” Salvanto’s poll finds.”
The 7th of November, we will awaken and find that there’s a GOP person occupying Flake and Corkers Senate seats....that Heller wins the Nevada situation with less than a 1,000 vote difference, and along the way, the GOP picked up five additional Senate seats.
Come January 2019, Corker, Flake and McCain will be gone, and a new landscape will exist.
Plus or minus 1 or 2 points is within the margin of error on any poll, usually higher (2-4 points). I would rather be on the plus side but it is essentially meaningless.
News events after labor day a critical and the media knows this. They will pull out all the stops to control the narrative for September and October, however, Trump gets, "branding" and will work to stay ahead of them in the news cycle.
Freepers vote but, they have to motivate their, "low energy" friends to go in November.
Bookmarking.
Yes, and like all demoralized people everywhere they will commit national suicide by staying home and letting the demons continue in the final destruction of the republic. When will we learn what the left has mastered ? Incremental progress is better than no progress at all.
Basically he’s saying we don’t know. So we’ll have to wait until November to see who is right about the wave, or lack there of.
With the “resistance”, dems have widened the chasm between the parties. This makes migration between them less likely.
With RINO never-trumpism, the pubbies are trying to move left in the mistaken belief the chasm is bad.
No question. I’ve said that for six months. Given the number of seats the Ds have to defend, it’s nearly inevitable.
Right now I have a NET gain of about 4 in the senate, but that could change if we hold AZ and NV to net gain of 5-6.
However, there are a few longshots like John James in MI, the recently opened seat in MN, and the always “gettable” Joe Manchin in WV, plus Tester in MT. Richard Baris claims Tester overpolls.
I think it’s 50/50 that we get at least one of those, and not out of the question that we get 2.
As for the House, too soon. AZ hasn’t even had its primary yet, though early primary voting is REALLY good for Rs. As of last night, Republican early voting outpaced Democrats by nearly 12 points (!). This is significant in that Rs usually don’t vote early-—but, caution: R leadership has been pushing early voting, and in OH sent out flyers explaining why “concerns” over early voting weren’t valid. GOP research shows that an early voter will almost always vote the whole ticket, vs. a ED voter who often will only vote a couple of “big” races.
So it’s possible the AZ early vote advantage in part reflects a little “cannibalizing” of election day, but nevertheless, rule of thumb, if the DemoKKKrats can’t win the early vote, they can’t win.
I’m watching about 30 House races, including John Faso’s NY seat; Steve Chabot in OH; CA 48 and 49; AZ1 and McSally’s seat; a couple in FL which really seem to have solidified; two in MN (I think it’s 1 and 8, but 3 is a possibility—two of them as D to R flips); and the seats in PA. If we win a majority of those, no way the DemoKKKrats take the House. But too soon to say right now.
Thanks for the information. You do fine work.
Best,
L
Don’t forget we have a Trump October Surprise coming. I’m really expecting something big from him.
Thanks LS.
The only way the GOP can lose this election is if they throw it...
...and that’s entirely possible.
I don’t know whether it’s by Design or accident but yeah Trump support as strong as concrete and only increasing bit by bit. His opposition is also set in concrete however it’s eroding and Trump support is increasing.
I agree. And the No Trumpers have made it plain that they will support a Clinton type candidate over a Trump supporter. The Republican No Trumpers are open borders, pro socialist advocates who are uni party cowards. They straddle the political parties to avail themselves of the benefits of appearing to be at least marginal pro American advocates. They are in step, in league, with the democrats who want to replace this Republic with a socialist, communist, form of governance.
I do expect Mueller to drop some horrible (and false) accusations on Trump in very late October. And I also expect Deep State Jeff to remark that the charges are "troubling and credible" and that they "besmirch the honor of the office of the President".
I also half-expect a mass-shooting in a school in very late October.
Thanks, LS.
I think we gain 4-5 in the Senate and lose some in the House but not enough to lose the House.
The war will continue but we will be stronger not only in Congress but the nation as a whole.
The Left is showing their true ugly colors and normal, sane people don’t like what they are seeing.
The Social Media censorship is going to help us.
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