Posted on 09/18/2018 7:00:59 AM PDT by centurion316
Bottom line is how many Trump voters are satisfied with their choice two years ago? And, how do people generally feel about the direction of the economy? And..how motivated are people to vote.
In all three cases, the GOP base is ++
Wonder what happens in AZ after the celebrity funeral of McCain. I’m sure there are plenty there that were sick and tired of hearing about it and want a real conservative elected in various races.
Listening to today’s news, it seems that the rats will try to dig in on getting an FBI investigation report before going forward -
Although there has been no FBI investigation beyond his former 6 confirmations, lol...;their role is to provide the letter to the WH as information”, that’s all.
DiFi says she wants more people at the hearing -
Then send in all 65 of the women that signed the Kavanaugh support letter!
Of course, you are correct, but you are being rational. We are talking about a block of voters who use emotions to make decisions, not rational factors and many of these voters are “Independent”. Will they vote? Many won’t but the Democrats are working overtime to convince these airheads to go to the polls. The Catherine Ford dust up is aimed at these voters.
I see the Ford thing as a smear thing they know will not work, but will forever taint him. Much like Thomas was forever going to be remember for Anita Hill crap.
But, what most folks don’t count on in this election is the “irritation” factor.
Bill Clinton and the DNC benefitted from impeachment/Monica fatigue in 1998. Likewise, Americans are enormously sick of the DNC and their Impeachment Russia crap and will stick it to them and good this fall.
Thank you for helping me not lose my f***ing mind AGAIN. :)
LS,
I respect you, and we will see. But I highly disagree with some of your conclusions. The PA Senate and Governor races are a blip... no enthusiasm or energy for either of the R’s running... Both Wolf and Casey will be re-elected heartily. Sadly.
I do hope you are right that Senate or Governorship races will draw turnout, but I am very hard pressed to believe that will be the case in most of the rust belt. With huge spending in nearly ever special election they still have not managed to pull over average midterm numbers on the high end, vs D turnout at near Presidential year numbers. Of the upper Midwest if I were to pick a state that the GOP will most likely hold string WI is probably the standout.
I don’t think that Senate or Governor Races, no matter how hotly contested are likely to make up that difference up here.
I completely agree with your Senate prediction, and have said for a long time that I expect the GOP to gain 6+ in the Senate, and could even get double digits if the winds are just right.
But the house? With the messaging and campaign the GOP has been running the past year? I don’t see it selling well enough in this part of the country. In the deep south, where R vastly outnumber D’s sure.... but in this part of the country where that advantage does not exist, even in the Red districts, the deltas are lower..
IMHO, any district that has 2016 D numbers higher than 2014 R numbers is a possible flip, period. And that’s a LOT of districts across this country.
The GOP has refused, to this point, to nationalize the election.. instead of making it about the forgotten American, and standing with them, their messaging is all around the Democrat being evil... or a pelosi rubber stamp, etc etc... and THAT DOG WON’T HUNT HERE...
Those 1 MM voters Trump found in PA were not lifetime deep red republicans... Many were multi generational Democrats, who watched their party leave them, so they disengaged... Those people are NOT going to care or show up because you are calling the D a name.
The GOP has no excuse for losing the house this fall, but if they thing they can simply say, hey our tax cuts worked... and the other folks are evil, is going to engage those no traditional voters, they are foolish. PA-18 and OH-12 showed how poorly that messaging works.... yet they still seem stuck on it.
I would love to be wrong, I truly would.. but I easily see 10 or more seats flipping D in the upper midwest alone. Now, the D’s overplay their hands, they could do what the GOP seems unwilling or unable to do, and that is engage those non traditional MAGA voters... and if that happens the GOP will easily hold the house and could even gain seats.
However the GOP is doing NOTHING to get those folks engaged, and without them, they don’t have any prayer of holding a lot of purple and even some pink districts.
Daily I want to see as much D whackadoo and craziness that I can, because the crazier they act and the closer the election is, the more likely it is the GOP holds the house... I wish I was seeing the GOP themselves doing something that is going to get those voters out.. but sadly I just don’t.
You are probably right, but it only needs to work on four people: Corker, Collins, Flake, and Murkowski and they only need one of them. Good odds.
All one has to do is watch the Trump rallies to prove this is Fake News.
Nah! Mr. York, we want the storm. Bring it. We do exceedingly well in storms.
Newt is on;ly partially correct. For all the women who have swallowed their pu$$y whipping pills , there are millions of minority voters who will now vote for the GOP because they want to continue the economic boom.
Big wheels are turning and the pu$$y whippers are about to be ground up in the cogs. Let their hamburg fly!
Our Last Chance? [Can Donald Trump Revive The "Spirit of '76?]
The election will be decided by turnout. Pollyannish ideas that Republicans will flock to the polls and vote they way they voted in 2016, not to mention all of the independents who voted for Republicans in 2016 is not a wise approach.
And what verifiable facts are out there and where does one go to find them?
I didn’t get a chance to read everything. Was it mentioned about POTUS’ 36% +/- support from the black community?
If they turn out bigly, that is a game changer.
Here is the feature as to urgency: Our Last Chance? [Can Donald Trump Revive The "Spirit of '76?]
How issues are presented determine the perspectives that govern individual voters.
You are correct about the saving grace is the dems themselves. They have not wanted to campaign on anything but rights for illegal aliens and impeachment.
There are a couple of factors as well. One is that dems concentrating all focus of effort and (soros) money in one district or state on special elections is one thing, but now having to do it in all contests is another.
Right now I put the over/under at 17 for losses.
The chart only looks at house seat losses for a party that holds the white house in the presidents first term. Thus 2006 not on chart because it was second term for Bush, likewise 1986, 1998, 2014. I would agree that the dynamics of the race could be different for a midterm where a president is new to the office rather than where they have been in office 6 years and been reelected.
Nope, that’s not it either...
The GOP isn’t delivering CoC messaging here... I am sure a few may be, but that’s not the message...
The GOPe (the entire ECOSPHERE) either is dumber than dirt, or just refuses to learn from Trump, or flat out just wants to lose to stop Trump...
PA-18 and OH-12 were not FLUKES.. they were flat out perfect examples of electoral malpractice!
Trump marched right up the upper midwest, a part of the country that has been LONG LONG overdue for a political re-alignment, and flat out owned it... He put his stake in the ground on day one, his march was going to be right through this part of the country, and anyone with any knowledge of this area could (or should) have seen it.
HE found something like a MILLION more votes in PA alone, than any republican in recent times... He didn’t manage that feat by simply saying Hillary is bad.. though he did... He pulled it off by stating the obvious truth to these people.. That their party and political class had sold them out and abandoned them..
These are people who have watched their entire lives and towns be sold down the toilet, while the folks in DC did nothing.. they watched boys using girls locker rooms were more important than their kids having little to no opportunity or becoming addicted to painkillers that the corrupt oligarchy allowed to be unleashed on them... and NO ONE CARED.
These are people who A lot of them, are life long multi generational Democrats! Running around screaming that so and so will be a pelosi clone so vote for me.. IS ABOUT THE WORST MESSAGE YOU COULD POSSIBLY RUN IF YOU WANT TO ENGAGE THEM! Sure they will work for the red meat dye in the wool republican voter, but it won’t do jack to attract those atypical and cross over MAGA voters.
Hillary was running around talking down to these people, telling them to move, coal isn’t coming back, or get retrained.. of course there are no JOBS so retrain for what??? While Hillary was out asking her voters to stand “With Her” ... Trump was hustling telling everyone, “I’m WITH YOU!”
The GOP has ZERO excuse for losing the upper midwest, or the house this fall other than THEIR OWN INCOMPETENCE! You want to win the message has to be simple....
If you were in office before 16, you need to acknowledge you weren’t listen... Confirm the message that Trump delivered, tell the electorate you got it and that you will help Donald Trump Help The Electorate!
You wrap that message up right, and sell it honestly and hard, and act in a way that shows you “get it”... GOP not only keeps the house, but gains seats... YOu run around simply name calling democrats, and selling the same old crap you have for 20 years thinking if you just get your base a little more motivated.. You Lose....
And the GOP seems bound and determined to do the latter. They are electorally INCOMPETENT.
You forget the Trump rallies, that guy in Ohio who looked like he didn’t even want to be seen on the stage with Trump, and The Donald pulled him over the finish line.
Add in Russia fatigue, and the Carter-to-Reagan economy: people aren’t stupid, they know what will happen if the Dems get back in power.
Then there’s the FISA scandal.
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