The Real Blue Wave Could Come in the States

The Cook Political Report ^ | October 9, 2018 | Charles E. Cook

[FirstFlaBn]

I remember reading that the western novelist Zane Gray got paid a nickel a word after he established his broad appeal (a lot of money way back when).

These pundits might as well have the same deal. They rarely acknowledge their errors and never change their ways.

It’s like getting full credit for your homework as long as you turn in something, anything.

[ncalburt]

Larry was caught working secretly for the Dem candidate .
He was still running around hiding that fact and posing as a unbiased pollster .

Cook is just as big fraud .
Cook is even sneakier and more devious than Larry S .

[jmaroneps37]

Yes it COULD but alas it won’t Charlie. Go away and come up with something else.

[OldMissileer]

Well if l am going by what it looks like here in Michigan the Rats are a lock for Governor and Senator. Trump carried Michigan just barely but he did and the state is doing pretty well under GOP control but according to every poll the Rats have a lock , not even close.

I was born and raised in Michigan and will be retiring there soon.

It has amazed me how Democrat governors trash the state then the Republican Govs will rebuild only to have the citizens elect another Dem who trashes the state again.

[Deplorable American1776]

Cook Political Report is fiction...Florida Senate is lost??

[SunkenCiv]

Partisan Media Shills update.

[centurion316]

Cook’s stock in trade is Congressional elections and lower. This is because he tracks precinct returns and has done this for over 50 years. He definitely got the President election wrong in 2016, but so did everyone else, too. Take a look at his results for the House. He correctly called all House seats rated leaning and above. He didn’t make a call in toss up races. Chart at here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2016
Remember that the Dems gained 6 seats in the House in 2016.

I learned not to bet with him years ago and won’t do it this year. The article is Oct 5, my guess that his numbers are lower for GOP losses today. My guess is 12 - 15 seats in the House flipping to the Dems, Charlie will probably have about twice as many. The current trends are encouraging, I think that the Dems have seen their high water mark.

[IrishBrigade]

‘Well if l am going by what it looks like here in Michigan the Rats are a lock for Governor and Senator.’

same in Pennsylvania; Wolf is clobbering Wagner in the gubernatorial, and Casey is toying with Barletta...

[IrishBrigade]

‘People keep banking on Trump’s win as being the paradigm for all elections now. It isn’t.’

that’s true; but then no election can stand as a predictive model for future elections...Americans like change too much...

[redgolum]

The recent confirmation hearing hurt the GOP. It also hurt the Dems.

[fortheDeclaration]

Sorry to hear that, still a month to go, a lot can happen.

Just vote and see what happens.

[fortheDeclaration]

No one is banking on anything, Trump is getting the base motivated, along with the Democrats and their despicable behavior. Nothing ‘kneejerk about it’

[fortheDeclaration]

Democrats always look good at the beginning of Oct. GOP begins to spend money in the middle of Oct.

[fortheDeclaration]

If blacks don’t turn out in Phil. things could turn out quite differently.

[The Pack Knight]

The Republican dominance on the state level, much of it gained in the 2010 and 2014 midterm elections, has resulted in very conservative policy changes on issues ranging from abortion, to Medicaid expansion (or contraction), to voting access.

I posted this story not because I place any particular stock in Cook's predictions, but to draw attention to state and local elections that are being overlooked. The Democrats ignored state government throughout the Obama administration and even before, and have paid the price. Aside from abortion, Medicaid, and voter fraud ("voting access,"), just look at what has happened with gun control:



The Democrats are learning their lesson and want to roll all this back. Stopping them will be hard work. Just like Obama could not stop conservative policies at the state level, Trump will not be able to stop leftist policies at the state level.

[Georgia Girl 2]

They just keep trying to make you believe GA is going blue. Brian Kemp is the next Governor of Georgia. Stacey Abrams is a joke.