Posted on 12/15/2018 3:00:59 PM PST by conservative98
It seems to me that a lot of the financial types are always predicting disaster. Apparently doom and gloom sells in the financial industry.
Ya I guess we had tons of jobs growth. What was it? Over 70 million on the dole who were out of the labor force and gave up looking for jobs?
These people simply have to lie to make themselves into something.
When not constrained to exact dates and timing she’s guaranteed to be correct at some point. ...could be 100 years from now though...
Gnosticism!
“Democrat tax hikes would strangle the recovery.”
Thank god the idiots only have the house and not the senate. They can pass what they want and eventually Trump will veto it.
Sonders either garbled her comment or it got chopped by the reporter. Of course there is a 100 percent chance of a recession. Someday. The only question is when. I am reasonably confident she didn’t mean to say there was a 100 percent chance next year. She may think a recession next year is likely, inasmuch as we are overdue in terms of long term averages, but likely does not mean certain.
When the ems won the House the last time they hiked the minimum wage.
If Trump could manage to ram through another 20% in 199A tax deductions, or maybe something to further spur investments in equipment & facilities by small businesses, that would invigorate small businesses and help insulate the US against what DOES look to be a slowdown overseas. IMO.
(For those not familiar with the new 199A deduction, it is quite an appreciated break. Check it out.)
I’ve noticed recently that mainstream media and their commentators have gone ALL IN with trying to talk us into a recession. I guess it’s all part of their planning for the 2020 elections.
That's on the GOP.
Sec. 199A in general Effective for tax years beginning after Dec. 31, 2017, and before Jan. 1, 2026, 6 a taxpayer other than a corporation is entitled to a deduction equal to 20% of the taxpayer’s “qualified business income” earned in a “qualified trade or business.”
What’s the latest liberal definition of a recession?
Anyone who claims a 100% chance of anything is a dumbass.
A monkey could predict an "earnings recession" next year as the economy has been going gangbusters since 2016. With the Fed raising interest rates I'm sure the market will stall and earnings will tank.
John Mauldin:
I believe we will enter recession within the next two years. Ray Dalio says we will be in a recession in 2020. Mark Yusko argues the US will be in recession by the end of 2019. Mark and Ray are smarter than I am. My crystal ball is a little bit cloudier as to exact timing.
In any case, it makes little difference to our portfolios whether recession strikes in 2019 or 2020. The benchmarks will drop between 40 and 50%—some more, some less. To the extent that you are exposed to stocks and other financial markets, your portfolio is going to take a hit.
As I’ve demonstrated in other letters, global debt could easily reach $500 trillion in a few years. Investors and businesses act like that is normal and can continue.
At some point, we will have a recession exacerbated by extraordinarily high corporate debt.
Just like subprime mortgage debt triggered the last recession, corporate debt will trigger the next one. (I am sure there will be congressional hearings and global angst, and new rules will be instituted to limit future corporate debt, at the same time ignoring and indeed increasing government debt. Sigh.)
This corporate debt will precipitate a liquidity crisis and create havoc in all sorts of “unrelated” markets. Investors will learn, once again, that all asset classes are globally correlated in a crisis. There will be few places to hide.
But then the recession will end, as all recessions do, and recovery begin, because that is what happens after recessions. Except it will be different this time.
Recovery from the Great Recession was the slowest on record. The next recovery will be even slower. I have written about that, citing Lacy Hunt and others. Debt that is not self-funding is future consumption brought forward. We are currently enjoying consumption and growth that cannot happen in the future. Debt, then, is a drag on future growth, and the amount of debt the world now has will be a monster drag on future growth. (Note the distinction between debt for current consumption and debt for future production. There is an enormous difference.)
https://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/how-should-we-then-invest
Uh, no. Investment [sic] newsletters remind me of Amway by analogy -- the only product is the newsletter itself.
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