Posted on 09/04/2019 7:53:27 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Appreciate your insight!
It is more likely they would spread the idea of freedom the more they interacted with the mainland Chinese.
Thus, the Social Index. Keep them from traveling.
They’ll just have to have the secret police disappear dissidents instead.
People will be marginalized, disappeared, starving, fired, slandered. The ChiComs don’t give a sh** about the”peoples” feelings.
“The CCP cannot tolerate the Hong Kong disease breaking out in the adjacent Pearl River Delta territory”
That area will be/is taking the brunt of the the new tariffs (electronics). A generation there has know nothing but boom times, and have no experience with recessions.
They are leveraged with debt to a extraordinarily dangerous level - historic bubble.
The Hong Kong dollar is freely convertible - unlike the Yuan/Renminbi currency of the mainland. Hong Kong has burnt through their foreign reserves to maintain their peg with the US dollar over. If that breaks, Katie Bar the Door!
“China is in a tight spot here, because they need the access Hong Kong gives them.”
Hong Kong is the financial capital of China,and enjoys a special “sovereign” status that gives them access to the hard currency financial system of the world.
The CCP has printed their Yuan/Renminbi in a frenzy, that is by far the biggest monetary bubble in human history.
Their Dollar, Euro and Yen based economy is really a pretty closely run thing, teetering on the edge of default, barely able to pay the interest on their debt.
If they kill the goose that lays the golden eggs (Hong Kong), their financial Ponzi scheme will likely burst so spectacularly, that it will be visible from outer space.
It may be unstoppable already. The political disruption might be an effect of the coming financial implosion, or it could be the spark that ignites it.
Get what you can out of China, while you still can.
The Party is coming to an end, and the hangover will be epic.
“a collapse in the hong kong dollar. The Chinese can prop it up —but it will cost them.”
If it was just the Hong Kong dollar, foreign reserves of the mainland could maintain the peg.
But if they really have to, they will probably be dealing with stampedes and crashes on multiple fronts - supporting the Renminbi, the stock markets, real estate values, debt and banking failures, the economy, etc.
Beyond the end of the mainland’s foreign reserves, lies the abyss.
Yes, withdraw publicly, report privately.
“the CCP are afraid that if they move on Hong Kong then President Trump will use that as a handy excuse to impose a total trade embargo on them.”
The whole world (well, the International banking system), could revoke Hong Kong’s special “Sovereign” status, if they are politically absorbed (r overtly controlled) by the mainland.
That would be an epic financial disaster for the mainland.
The CCP needs Hong Kong, more than Hong Kong needs them - and Hong Kong is hugely dependent on the mainland now.
Burn-knee and Airhead Obtusely-Crazy are greatly disappointed over this.
“I do think this move now gives them the pretext to move in, should the protests continue.”
Agreed.
China would have it so much easier if they just accepted HK as a federated but self governed state — then China could milk the golden cow for years to come.
“Many wealthy party members have millions and billions invested in Hong Kong as a safe haven.”
Joke’s on them. They should have put their money in Switzerland or the Caymans like other good totalitarians do.
“The Communists would do the same thing here in the US if they could. My fear is that with the radicalization of the Dems, they might be able to do it. And so goes the last best hope.”
The communists here are already colonializing flyover country.
Commies will still enforce rule by decree, law by whim, extrajudicial killing, torture, confiscation, etc.
They’ll just do it without this particular “law” in place.
Regardless of how this ends, China is going to continue to strip Hong Kong of its financial clout and ship it to Shanghai.
The outcome is beyond my capacity.
My thought is that History is a process and not an event.
Change is underway as we post. There is no certainty
Treaty with Britain signed 1984 established HK autonomous government for fifty years after the end of the 99 year lease. Beijing abrogated terms of that treaty upon submitting a list of approved candidates for the local elections. Downhill trend established ever since.
Thanks Tom.
Yeah. Who saw that coming? Right...
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