The Chinese Communist Regime is on the Brink of ‘Disintegration,’ Says Leading China Expert

Epoch Times ^ | 12/6/2019 | Frank Fang

[GOPJ]

...“si hu tong” (死胡同),”

It was a combination of Reagan and Chernobyl that sunk the old USSR... What are the uber large events that could topple China? And are we really ready for chaos on the level that could bring?

[libh8er]

We are witnessing Tiananmen 2.0 but it won’t end like Tiananmen 1.0

[glorgau]

> Nixon helped by opening the door. We were used.

Well, the Soviets were pretty close to nuking the Chinese and at the time the Soviets were the bigger worry.

Biggest mistake was letting the Chinese into the WTO on such easy conditions.

[yefragetuwrabrumuy]

I wouldn’t hold my breath. I would guess a collapse of that regime would begin with a military mutiny led by some warlord that wanted to be dictator. It wouldn’t last long before China entered a “time of troubles”, with all sorts of strongmen vying for power, with economic and social crises.

A few million Chinese would likely be slaughtered in the process, which is the typical fare for that trip. On the plus side, communism would hopefully be discarded as an inefficient waste.

[The Antiyuppie]

“I remember reading a book in 1987 that claimed that the Castro Regime was heading for imminent collapse. Over 3 decades later, I am still waiting.”

The difference is, how could you even tell if Cuba has disintegrated? The people there have been reduced to such a low level of existence it would hardly make a ripple in the world if it disappeared entirely. China, OTOH...

[The Antiyuppie]

It still amazes me that so few people died when the USSR collapsed considering that at the time (or possibly ever) they had arguably the most powerful standing army on the planet. I doubt that this would be the case with China. I’ve got to believe that too many people there would have too much to lose for that to happen. They all know their own history.

[mrsmith]

The difference is nukes.

I just can’t think a feudal regime wouldn’t use them to defend itself.

It’s like “Newtonian” and “Einsteinian” physics, in the nuclear realm one doesn’t apply.

[Zhang Fei]

[I wouldn’t hold my breath. I would guess a collapse of that regime would begin with a military mutiny led by some warlord that wanted to be dictator.]

---

There’s also the way Deng Xiaoping overthrew his predecessor, Mao’s handpicked successor, by getting a decisive number of generals to back him. Yeltsin, a member of the nomenklatura just like Deng, did something similar, but chose to dismantle the regime and replace it with something new. Whereas Deng kept China’s quasi-monarchical system while dismantling the planned economy in all but name. Chinese government involvement in domestic industry currently resembles the throne’s sponsorship of age-old imperial monopolies more than any Soviet-era counterparts, with elements of industrial policy similar to what the French and the Japanese have done with their major industrial conglomerates.

[cgbg]

The leaders will just buy North American real estate and move if the going gets tough.

Last one out gets to turn off the lights!

[DIRTYSECRET]

Zaing Fei: So wha you are saying is WE need another INTERNAL war inside China. Like we need muzzles to fight each other. It helps.

[arthurus]

“So the real intellectual problem is how do you exit communism?” The fall of Communism in China is really rather irrelevant to China. China has been ruled by absolute despots with the murderous effects of Mao for three millennia. When there is an interregnum- a Period of Warring States- it just breaks apart for a time into several murderous despotisms all with total control of even the lowest level of the society. I have read a lot of Chinese history in the last year and have come to realize that Mao was no aberration but rather another in a line of similar Chinese Emperors.

[mrsmith]

I’m sorry to reject someone so knowledgeable, but...
Pre nuke political science doesn’t apply.

A nuke-capable feudal regime is different. Comparisons to the past are ineffectual. Feudal regimes go as far as they can, and have no inherent limits.

[arthurus]

I am saying that the style of rule has not changed, even with nukes. Nukes simply makes the despots more dangerous outside of the Middle Kingdom. China has gone through periods of expansion before that have been highly aggressive and destructive. Kubilai attempted to conquer Japan and Vietnam.There has been 2500 years of constant occupaton and pressure on SEA. There is no difference in quality between Xi and Kubilai, only in reach.

[mrsmith]

But that difference in reach makes all the difference.
Attacking an enemy with a nuke is existentially different from past attacks.
No past overthrow of a feudal regime faced such a problem:
the regime can defend itself from internal threats by launching nukes, or threatening to.

[goldstategop]

The wealthy support Communist rule because the collapse of central institutions would be followed by economic collapse.

Current rulers don’t want democracy because it reminds them of the chaos of the Cultural Revolution.

If the regime disappears, there is no guarantee a democratic government will fill the vacuum.

[arthurus]

Attacking you with a gun is different in reach but no different in character. Adding a blower to a Camaro increases the power and speed but does not change the character of the driver.

[mrsmith]

I get where you’re coming from.

A feudal regime that can defend itself with a nuclear bomb is just completely different from feudal regimes in the past.

[goldstategop]

The current system works for the Chinese. They have no incentive to change what’s given them economic prosperity, a certain measure of freedom and China about to become a superpower.

Throwing all of that away for Western democracy would be the height of folly.

[Paul R.]

The PLA itself is not a monolith, correct?

[Chad_the_Impaler]

Gordon Chang is an expert only if expertise is conferred via DNA (he’s half Chinese, via his dad) and business experience. Whereas Waldron has been writing monographs on China and translating obscure historical works from the original Chinese for maybe 50 years.

"Quite simply the best book [The Coming Collapse of China] I know about China's future. Gordon Chang writes marvelously and knows China well. I hope everyone concerned with that country will pay careful consideration to what he sees ahead."
-Arthur Waldron, Director of Asian Studies, American Enterprise Institute; Lauder Professor of International Relations, University of Pennsylvania