Posted on 01/24/2020 10:25:54 AM PST by fruser1
Your math is correct.
Even the death of one person is not trivial to me. It's just addressing the threat for what it is. It is very unfortunate, but it is not a population bomb (meaning massive deaths, a significant portion of the populace, in a community [large or small] )
The information above is provided so we can talk about the normal mortality rate for seasonal influenza of various strains.
From the information provided above, we can determine that the mortality rate was between 1.555% and 1.8%
Now while this 4% figure is over double that, when all is said and done, that figure may dip below the 4% figure by the time this plays out.
We're still talking about something in the ball-park of normal flu mortality, even though at this point it is double the normal mortality of a flu season. We're not talking 15-40% for instance.
Thanks Hugh the Scot...
I noticed I just used the hospitalization rates instead of the mortality rates there.
That does skew things, and I apologize for that.
I don’t like them talking about estimates, but that’s the data they provide for total numbers of cases. If we look at just the hospitalized people and then the mortality on those figures, it could be more meaningful, since we can accurately quantify both, from the nation (and the hospitals that report).
That would be from 7.5% to 8.57%.
I toss this out there for review.
Take care...
The reason the 1918 influenza pandemic got the name “Spanish Flu” was because it broke out during WWI and countries on both sides of the war - Central Powers and Allied including the US (via Sedition Act of 1918), had rather draconian restrictions on reporting any news that could be detrimental to the war effort. Spain however was neutral and hence had no restrictions on their press and even reported that their king, Alfonso XIII had fallen ill with this particularly deadly and rapidly spreading influenza.
Because so much of the news at first about the influenza came from Spain, it was assumed to have started there or been much worse there than anywhere else.
Some theorize it actually originated in Haskell County, Kansas and the nearby Camp Funston, now Ft. Riley, where in a single day over 100 soldiers fell ill, and by week’s end 500 fell ill and 48 died. It’s been said that several days before soldiers started falling ill, they had been burning tons of manure and perhaps also pig and chicken carcasses.
The site of origin of the 1918 influenza pandemic and its public health implications
Why the 1918 Spanish Flu Probably Didn't Originate in Spain
Another theory places the origin and China and spread by Chinese laborers who, after being shipped in sealed rail cars from the west coast of Canada to the east coast of Canada, were sent to England and France by ship to perform all sorts of labor behind the battle lines so as to free up troops for combat. But that doesn’t explain the first recorded outbreak in Kansas because the Chinese laborers never came anywhere near Kansas and were not free to roam about.
No one really knows from where it originated, but unlikely to be Europe and most certainly wasn’t Spain.
Very reasonable observations... I check one source and see that “estimates” generally are including those hospitalized or currently under care only. If folks are recovering and going home, the mortality numbers based on that set would be artificially high.
I do know there’s a lot of click-bait headlines out on the net around this outbreak, but my instinctive skepticism of anything the Communist Chinese government reports as true... Keeps me from just assuming everything is okay.
The rapid quarantine of the ONE city in China with a level 4 Biolab makes my eye twitch.
I agree, but then the government may simply wish to prevent massive health care related costs even if it’s just a flu epidemic too.
Like you say, we can’t rely on the NEWS China determines to let out. Haven’t we been educated on that here too.
https://systems.jhu.edu/research/public-health/ncov/
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Thank you.
Great resources...
The thing is , the 4% mortality rate has zero to do with the population of China.
“In China 4%”
That would only be if all of them were sick enough to get hospitalized.
For the 2017/2018 seasonal flu, 8% of US hospitalized cases died.
“4% mortality “
Nope, the 4% is for cases hospitalized.
For those infected it’s about 0.5%.
“45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths”
From the report, comparable numbers in the phrase above for the corona virus are:
4 thousand illnesses (estimated), 581 hospitalizations and 17 deaths.
Initial cases would not be reported well, hence the estimate. We’ll have better “rates” in a month or so.
“Debating if I need to start prepping in case this virus goes full blown.”
We had a few relatives in the midwest and eastern states ask us since we live in the land of disasters, aka California, with year round disasters:. Fires,earthquakes, floods and ????.
What type of preparations should they think about. So we put this together yesterday as a semi joke. We got thank you’s back from many relatives and friends some good suggestions. Which we added.
With the modern curse of next day delivery of food, water, medicine and other necessary items, There are no basic inventories past a couple of days before outages.
My wife has 40 plus years of being an RN, and I can spell MBA.
Here is our modest prep plan for even Californians:
What, would happen if your community was basically shut down for 2-4 weeks due to a quarantine.
No one could leave or get into your community for 2-4 weeks.
What you and your family eat and drink
When would you have power failures and maybe natural gas shutoffs. Cooking might be impossible without power. Keeping food fresh and edible in refrigerators and freezers becomes a 24/7 challenge.
Living in California, besides our grab/go bags, we keep enough water and food for 2-3 weeks. Also, food that doesn’t have to be refrigerated or frozen.
Food that is in our combo refrig/freezer lasts for 2-4 days to a week if we get in and out quickly. The freezer on the bottom has frozen bottles of water on the top shelves. Food is still edible after a few days.
Our standing freezer with frozen water bottles on top inside shelf, has kept food frozen for 5-7 days with the get in and out quick action.
So, you eat your refrig food first, your freezer food next and then your non refrig/freezer food.
If this thing goes full viral, you need to have 2-4 weeks of food and water handy.
You, also, need to have 2-4 weeks of your important Rx medicines and that minimum for your daily otc meds. The same goes for tooth paste and similar items.
Keep at least a half tank of gasoline in your vehicles. Good luck with any solar vehicle that has to have its batteries charged to get out of your driveway.
Home and self defense needs to be considered.
Take a breath and read the rest of the discussion.
Even disregarding reports that intentional underreporting is happening, the number is pretty high (4%) regardless of the basis number.
I don’t know anything that everyone else doesn’t know. Neither do you.
I have read the rest which is why I responded. The false impression is that 4% of those infected die. The 4% at this time is only based on hospitalizations.
In that sense, 4% is less than the flu. When you disregard “the basis number” you’re out of context and misrepresent the facts.
You’re right in that it’s something to watch, but it’s nothing to panic about at this time.
Thanks for the recap and comments.
I’d imagine you’re right on the dets in a month.
“The 4% at this time is only based on hospitalizations.”
That is false. The 4% is based on the numbers being publicly reported by the communist Chinese government.
“In that sense, 4% is less than the flu.”
This is also false.
I’m not advocating panic.
Here’s how you advocate panic:
“Media:
1287 confirmed cases 1965 suspected cases 41 confirmed deaths 38 patients cured.”
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