Posted on 03/22/2020 7:15:30 AM PDT by John W
Since we are more likely to follow the Social distancing /with short-term shelter in place, We can expect a peak infection to occur around mid-May and hospital beds to become unavailable in late April. Unintended consequences of Shelter in Place are food and supply shortages, severe disruption of economy.
I expect the Trump administration will be looking at similar but more sophisticated models and include economic/supply models, then implement a mandatory best-case scenario for the whole country.
oh- now we are pushing the peak infection period back to mid-May?? Last week we were two weeks away from where Italy is presently...
the doomsayers are sounding more and more like the global climate nuts...
Don’t know your source, the model projections have always been around May since late January.
six days ago:
https://wgntv.com/news/coronavirus/us-surgeon-general-us-cases-are-where-italy-was-2-weeks-ago/
this is true, but they have not reached peak.
He’s a deep state Hillary worshiper
I’m not talking estimates. We need real numbers to compare properly.
“Fauci will get a grilling from Mark Levin. Tonight at 8 on Fox.”
I wish, but doubt it. His format doesn’t seem to be in that vein. It’ll be softball, I think.
the late Christopher Hitchens’s brother Peter dares to speak out:
22 Mar: UK Daily Mail: PETER HITCHENS: Is shutting down Britain – with unprecedented curbs on ancient liberties – REALLY the best answer?
•Our columnist is renowned for independent thinking. It will enrage many, but here he offers a highly controversial personal view
We are warned of supposedly devastating death rates. But at least one expert, John Ioannidis, is not so sure. He is Professor of Medicine, of epidemiology and population health, of biomedical data science, and of statistics at Stanford University in California. He says the data are utterly unreliable because so many cases are going unrecorded.
He warns: ‘This evidence fiasco creates tremendous uncertainty about the risk of dying from Covid-19. Reported case fatality rates, like the official 3.4 per cent rate from the World Health Organisation, cause horror and are meaningless.’ In only one place – aboard the cruise ship Diamond Princess – has an entire closed community been available for study. And the death rate there – just one per cent – is distorted because so many of those aboard were elderly. The real rate, adjusted for a wide age range, could be as low as 0.05 per cent and as high as one per cent.
As Prof Ioannidis says: ‘That huge range markedly affects how severe the pandemic is and what should be done. A population-wide case fatality rate of 0.05 per cent is lower than seasonal influenza. If that is the true rate, locking down the world with potentially tremendous social and financial consequences may be totally irrational. It’s like an elephant being attacked by a house cat. Frustrated and trying to avoid the cat, the elephant accidentally jumps off a cliff and dies.’
Epidemic disasters have been predicted many times before and have not been anything like as bad as feared...
I also know that dissent at this time will bring me abuse and perhaps worse. But I am not saying this for fun, or to be ‘contrarian’ –that stupid word which suggests that you are picking an argument for fun. This is not fun.
This is our future, and if I did not lift my voice to speak up for it now, even if I do it quite alone, I should consider that I was not worthy to call myself English or British, or a journalist, and that my parents’ generation had wasted their time saving the freedom and prosperity which they handed on to me after a long and cruel struggle whose privations and griefs we can barely imagine.
If you want to comment on Peter Hitchens click here.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8138675/PETER-HITCHENS-shutting-Britain-REALLY-right-answer.html
President Trump needs Prof John Ioannidis on his covid-19 team.
What did they do based on the lessons they should have learned from H1N1? Not a damned thing.
“We need real numbers to compare properly.”
You cannot get “real” numbers from NY state. They - NY state - are not collecting (or if collecting not reporting) the actual death numbers for deaths related to viral URI seasonal flu. They happen all the time with hospitalized cases of viral URI’s that home care cannot remedy, particular with children (with seasonal flu) and the elderly but even when that is the cause of death, the state is not collecting them, or counting them as such.
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