Posted on 07/20/2020 11:54:35 AM PDT by BeauBo
“I don’t remember reading anything about Egyptian performance in Yemen. That makes me think it was poor.”
That is the consensus opinion. A long and inconclusive quagmire.
“But can they do it” (in Libya)
There is the $64,000 question.
Given the huge size of the Egyptian Military, relative to the other forces on the field, they clearly have the potential to bring decisive force to bear.
As you point out, there is a LOT of ground to cover. A lot of troops could be used, just to hold positions, where they could gradually be picked off.
Alternatively, Egyptian armor, air and artillery (if supported with some good intel), could lead an overwhelming Blitzkrieg along the coastal roads and communities, where the population is concentrated, back to the outskirts of Tripoli, where their LNA (Haftar) allies were before Turkey’s recent reinforcement of the GNA.
So if they go big enough to win decisively, before the opposition can ramp up reinforcements, that might be a reasonable strategy. That would likely require a lot of coordination with America, for intel and targeting. The American Military might want a thorough plan first which could delay action, and allow the Turks to reinforce further.
I’m pretty sure that the American Military will be very careful not to get Turkish (NATO) blood on their hands directly. There is no way to know how much planning and coordination has already been done - that would be classified.
Alternatively, the Egyptians might just set limited objectives of securing the Eastern oil fields, and the area around Sirte (just restoring the status quo), hoping to avoid forcing the conflict with Turkey into an all or nothing contest, more likely to escalate. Turkey might respect that red line, just because of the high cost required to cross it.
A lot of players and moving parts - but this authorization for the biggest Military in the region to jump in, is a major development.
Turkey is unlikely to deploy a bunch of their own Regular Army and heavy armor in a rapid fashion for a Desert Storm-style high intensity war, but they could probably send a thousand or two jihadis per month relatively easily, with all the small arms ammo they could shoot, as well as anti-armor missiles.
If the Qataris pick up the bill for salaries, food, vehicles, fuel, medical and such; Turkey has one of the planet’s top ten arms industries, to supply the bang.
The whole team that ran the Syrian Civil War on the Sunni jihadi side, could shift the same operation to Libya. They have already done so to a very significant degree.
After a year or two of that, the body count would be climbing the charts, just like it did in Syria (which ended up being the biggest refugee movement in fifty years).
Ethiopia just started filling a dam on the Blue Nile. So the Egyptian military might have a lot on its plate before long.
Another military projection & logistic challenge!
As bad as it is it’s still probably better & more robust then Egypt.
Turkish unemployment
https://www.economy.com/turkey/unemployment
Note: no real news exists inside Turkey. All news sources are paid propaganda agents. And only way Turkey has stayed afloat is outside support. Largely for Qatar.
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Egypt receives outside aid from Saudi Arabia after Morsi was removed. No sure what the current situation there is now. The US has helped support Eypt.
If I had to choose an ally, it would not be Turkey. They are the only nation who makes excuses for and employees ISIS fighters.
Any conflict between the two would be a race too see which economy collapses first.
Both get outside support.
Qatar for Turkey.
SA for Egypt.
SA had 2 of their kings executed by Turkey. Both SA and Egypt are dependent on USA for weapons.
Turkey makes noises of going over to Russia. If they do, the bear will turn on them.
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