Mariupol (What Ukrainian victory looks like)

Twitter ^ | March 19th, 2022 | Mike Eckel via Twitter

[Mariner]

“So you’re cheering for the Russian monsters, right?”

Perhaps he’s cheering for reason.

[BeauBo]

Today’s (19 March) analysis from the Institute for the Study of War:

“The ultimate fall of Mariupol is increasingly unlikely to free up enough Russian combat power to change the outcome of the initial campaign dramatically.

Russian forces concentrated considerable combat power around Mariupol drawn from the 8th Combined Arms Army to the east and from the group of Russian forces in Crimea to the west. Had the Russians taken Mariupol quickly or with relatively few losses they would likely have been able to move enough combat power west toward Zaporizhiya and Dnipro to threaten those cities. The protracted siege of Mariupol is seriously weakening Russian forces on that axis, however.

The confirmed death of the commander of the Russian 150th Motorized Rifle Division likely indicates the scale of the damage Ukrainian defenders are inflicting on those formations. The block-by-block fighting in Mariupol itself is costing the Russian military time, initiative, and combat power. If and when Mariupol ultimately falls the Russian forces now besieging it may not be strong enough to change the course of the campaign dramatically by attacking to the west.”

[canuck_conservative]

Huh???? That makes no sense.

So you’re OK with Russia invading another sovereign country?

[Mariner]

MLRS with Cluster munitions looks like that.

As does FAE.

[McGruff]

In case you weren't aware of who's home base that is.

There are reports that they are holding local citizens as human shields.

[Mariner]

“So you’re OK with Russia invading another sovereign country?”

It does not matter what I think of it.

It is.

[Mariner]

” Institute for the Study of War”

The US/International Neocon central HQ.

Nothing they say can be believed. Ever.

[canuck_conservative]

There you go with your Russian propaganda again

[pierrem15]

They won't surrender. I expect Mariupol to be taken by the Russians in the next day or two, which means it's taken the Russians 3 1/2 weeks to reduce a city of a few hundred thousand close to Crimea and the eastern border and cut off by sea on the Sea of Azov.

The Ukrainians will fight in every city as hard as they have in Mariupol. Barring intervention by anyone else, it's going to be a war of attrition. While the Ukrainians are 1/3 the size of Russia in population, they are considerably more motivated than the Russians and Russia simply doesn't have the manpower even to secure the areas through which it has already advanced.

There are some signs Belarus will intervene as there are reports their diplomats have left Kiev and others claiming the Belarussian army is bridging the Pripyat.

If Belarus attacks, there is a real chance the Polish army will also intervene. Our hindmost leadership should jump in to make realistic suggestions for negotiations, but they'll probably just let things spiral out of control, because dumpster fires in every major policy field are their specialty.

[Mr Ramsbotham]

Kind of looks like London in May of ‘41.

[Howie66]

I am far more concerned with the invasion that is being permitted in our country.

The Ukrainians sure as Hell won’t lift a finger to come to our aid.

Neither will DC.

[Dr. Franklin]

MLRS with Cluster munitions looks like that.
As does FAE.

The bus is a give away to me that these things were moved there to create blockades and cover. I don't see enough damage to the road and surroundings. The road itself is clear and undamaged.

[pierrem15]

The Russians seem to have pulled some forces from the west of Kherson to assist at Mariupol which has enabled the Ukrainians to push forward towards Kherson.

Neither side seems capable of performing the large scale operational maneuvers needs to defeat their opponent.

[Mariner]

“and Russia simply doesn’t have the manpower even to secure the areas through which it has already advanced”

Which makes it more likely they’ll opt to simply burn it all to the ground.

“If Belarus attacks, there is a real chance the Polish army will also intervene. “

Ludicrous conjecture. Poland is not stupid, and besides NATO will not permit it.

[Jan_Sobieski]

So you’re cheering for the Russian monsters, right?

Approximately 50% of Ukrainians are cheering for the Russian Monsters.

[BeauBo]

"I don't see a lot of cratering around these vehicles to call it artillery."

The Russians use a lot of Rocket artillery, especially the common BM-21 Grad Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS), nicknamed "Katyusha" (little Kate). Most of the 120 or so Battalion Tactical Groups that Russia sent into the Ukraine include their own organic Grads.

The rockets fired can carry a variety of different warheads, but sub-munition types ("cluster bombs") seem more common in the Ukraine operation, than single charge high explosive warheads. The sub-munition types scatter a pattern of a few hundred fragmentation sub-munitions, like a hailstorm of grenades (Grad means hail in Russian).

[canuck_conservative]

Proof?

[Roccus]

Damned shame that we allow foreigners on this forum whose sole purpose seems to be picking fights.

[ifinnegan]

It does not look apocalyptic.

[Dr. Franklin]

If Belarus attacks, there is a real chance the Polish army will also intervene.

Poland has been very careful not to get drawn into the conflict directly without bringing the rest of NATO with them. Of course, if Putin's war is about the right to revanchism, Poland can claim at least half of Belarus. I doubt the local population would much object.